March 5, 2009

Apple Corp. Enters 21st Century

People constantly lament the absence of Beatles tracks online (legally, anyway) but word is out today (read the EMI press release) that Apple Corp, MTV and Harmonix will release "The Beatles: Rock Band" on September 9th.

The software will go for $59.99. The guitars (modeled after instruments played by band members) will go for $99.99. A limited-edition bundle will cost $249.99. Giles Martin, co-producer of The Beatles LOVE album, is this project's music producer.

Non-gamers, sorry. Nothing for you.

March 3, 2009

Terra Firma Annual Report: An Overhauled Company Ready to Sell (Less? More?) Music

EMI owner Terra Firma released its annual report today. Click here to download the 115-page PDF (the EMI section of the report starts on page 45) or here for a Reuters article.

EMI's EBITDA was £221 million for the last nine months of 2008. That compares well to the £90 million of EBITDA recorded in the last nine months of 2007. Recorded music gross margin (sales less cost of goods) was £250.4 million, up 30.5% versus last year, and earnings were up £92 million. Recorded music overheads and other costs decreased 13.3% to £216 million .Music publishing revenue was up 0.4% to £307 million.

In a costly admission of both EMI and the economy's outlook, Terra Firma wrote off half its 2.6-billion-Euro investment in EMI. In explaining private equity valuations (page 17), Terra Firma said it is a combination of portfolio financial performance and the application of a multiple or discount rate to comparable listed companies. As the valuation of public companies has declined, said the report, private equity firms' higher amounts of leverage have magnified their declines.

Throughout the report, Terra Firma underlines the value it brings to its firms. Here's a blurb:

Working alongside management, we overhaul the business both strategically and operationally. This often involves introducing new initiatives, processes and procedures in order to change the behaviour and culture of a company. This type of change takes time, but a long-term approach to investment is vital in order to create successful, sustainable businesses.

Cleaning up EMI has certainly improved its current financials. It has a more orderly organizational structure and more sound expenses and oversight. But media companies have problems that go well beyond processes, procedures or management.

As seen in the acquisition activity of Universal Music Group and Warner Music Group, as well as the merger of Front Line and Live Nation, one popular vision of the future music company puts more emphasis on artist services (management, agencies, e-commerce) and less dependence on revenues derived from assets (sound recordings and compositions, although music publishing is universally seen as a safer investment than recorded music). This vision recognizes that even the most well managed media company will have difficulties as technology changes how consumers acquire and enjoy their products.

Terra Firma, on the other hand, has put a great deal of its focus on organizational and structural elements tied to EMI's legacy as a creator, marketer and seller of (hopefully) hit albums. Altering how tasks are carried out will allow EMI to cut 1,500 to 2,000 jobs.

Terra Firma does mention, without detail, a strategy that looks beyond monetizing sound recording and publishing assets. On page 48 it mentions the need to gain "touring, licensing and other revenue streams" (presumably in the context of multi-rights deals, not M&A activity). On page 84, the report outlines some strategic changes being made at EMI. The company's future growth, judging from items highlighted here, are bundled subscriptions plans, mobile, gaming, advertising and sponsorships, and multi-rights artist contracts that peel off ticketing, touring and merchandise revenue.

Companies with less need for operational improvements have been looking beyond recorded music and publishing. Vivendi, parent company of UMG, saw a future in gaming and acquired Activision while UMG acquired Sanctuary. Warner Music Group sees a future in artist services and has moved into management, tour promotion and booking.

EMI's growth segments will be their competitors' growth segments. It will license music to the same stores and services. As the market ebbs and flows, only market share will set apart these companies. Once it achieves its desired operational and organizational efficiencies, then what? Terra Firma has spent time straightening up EMI -- and rightly so -- but has not looked far beyond being a consumer product and licensing company. This new annual report, like the Maltby Report before it, does not give any indication that Terra Firma is seriously looking beyond recorded music and publishing. To properly rebuild EMI, it may need to do just that.

February 2, 2009

EMI Interim Report: Is EMI Starving The Beast?

The EMI restructuring continues and the latest Maltby report (PDF, 566 KB), released by EMI last week, provides many insights into the company's progress and ambitions. Where its competitors or focused on adding parts of the value chain, EMI is slimming down and preparing for an era where corporate marketing, sponsorship dollars and partnerships are its key growth drivers.

The company says it is on track to achieve between £85 and £100 million for the year ending March 31, 2009. This will be attained through sales of property, improved distribution and manufacturing contracts, and the outsourcing of the finance function. Restructuring charges will keep EMI with a net loss until the second half of 2010.

But there's a risk in its strategy. In reshaping the organization and transforming its roster, EMI has given recorded music market share to its competitors. The company believes it can save money -- and use money more wisely -- by putting the "emphasis on artists with genuine potential to come to market in a realistic time frame." Such omnipotence is rare. In the crap-shoot that is the record business, one does not always know which artists will succeed and which will not. If success was so easy to predict, there would be no failures. Alas, failure is a part of the business, and aversion to risk a vice. By creating more stringent standards for signing and developing new artists, EMI risks losing out on some of tomorrow's stars. If that is the case, the value of its catalog -- and all those musical toothbrushes -- will drop relative to its competitors.

One mission of the new EMI may play a part in the quality of its catalog. EMI is setting itself up as a sponsorship-based consumer product company -- more than its competitors in this area. It is unlikely that the needs and preferences of potential corporate sponsors will not play a part in the acts that EMI signs and develops. The traditional model is based upon expected consumer reaction. The new model is based partly upon expected corporate reaction. Whether or not the new model lends itself to long-term success is one of the bigger questions surrounding EMI's strategy.

In spite of these question marks, EMI has made some real progress. In the half-year ended September 20, 2008, EMI revenue was up £60 million -- or 10% -- to £737 million. EMI's net loss improved to £155 from £324 in the second half of 2007. In the previous year, EMI's profit too a £192 million hit from a downward fair value adjustment. The recent finance charges were greater than EBITDA of £130 million. Finance charges totaled £150 million (including a net £25 million loss on exchange fluctuations) in the second half of 2008 versus £130 million in the previous period. As a percent of revenue, that's an increase of less than a point to 20.35%.

Digital revenue rose almost 50% and digital market share for EMI Music rose to 12.6% from 11.0%. CD sales represented 62% of revenue while digital accounts for 21% of total sales.

There were notable examples of improved efficiency as EMI did a bit more with roughly the same expenses. Overhead dropped 1% (I expected more) while cost of sales dropped 4%. With a decent increase in sales, gross margin as a percent of sales rose to 43.9% from 32.2%. A&R costs as a percent of sales dropped five points to 5%, and sales & marketing costs as a percent of sales fell six points to 14%.

In the EMI Music division, physical sales dropped 8%, digital sales rose 38% to £102 million, sync revenue increased 5%, total revenue increased 1% and gross profit jumped 38%.

February 1, 2009

Monday Business Links: EMI Improves, But There's A Catch

• Finally, somebody has a good take on EMI's recent earnings release. Yes, its second-half of 2008 loss was an improvement, but there are important implications to its strategy. "The cost cuts are helping to reduce the company's losses, but they also appear to be costing EMI market share, which could make it harder to become profitable over time. EMI's share of global CD sales fell to 9.8% from 10.6% in the half, according to the EMI accounts." Isn't it funny that the press loves EMI and tends to loath the two companies that have gained market share in recent years, Universal Music Group and Warner Music Group? Maybe there's a correlation between stubbornness and market share. (Wall Street Journal)

• Slightly good news for music companies: Woolworths will return as an online retailer. (Reuters)

• Along with Jean-Marie Messier, the former Vivendi Universal CEO, former Vivendi Universal vice chairman (and current Warner Music CEO) Edgar Bronfman Jr. was cleared of insider trading by a Paris prosecutor. A magistrate still needs to review the case. (Variety)

• Not a surprise that there is still tension between iTunes and labels. "In interviews, several high-level music executives, who spoke on the condition that they not be named to avoid angering Apple, said they operated in fear of Apple’s removing a label’s products from the iTunes store over a disagreement, even though that has never happened. The labels do not have much leverage in negotiating with Apple." (New York Times)

• Thorsten Koenig, managing director of Universal Music Germany's international division, is leaving the company. (Billboard.biz)

• Music distributor The Orchard has joined the Digital Data Exchange, a group formed in 2006 to develop standards for XML message formats for the exchange of metadata. (Press release)

December 2, 2008

Terra Firma Execs Out at EMI

EMI's turnaround has become more troubled. The Telegraph (found via Billboard.biz) reports that several Terra Firma executives with senior level positions at EMI have left the company. Chris Roling (EMI's COO and CFO), Ashley Unwin (COO for UK and North America) and Francois van der Spuy are said to have left. And this:

Sources said that EMI’s new chief executive Elio Leoni-Sceti, who recently joined as chief executive of EMI Music after a 20-year career in marketing, was keen to bring in his own management. Terra Firma has refused to provide any detail on why the senior members of staff were not reinstated into new roles at EMI.

That isn't hard to believe. CEOs tend to bring their own people with them. But I can't help but wonder if cultural differences are behind these departures. Quite a few EMI executives have little or no music industry experience. Outside perspectives will no doubt be valuable to music, but outside experience transfers only so much.

Some background info can be found in the Billboard.biz article. The Financial Times has an article as well.

November 6, 2008

Report: EMI Achieves Improved First-Half Results

In an article about an upcoming (reportedly on Friday) announcement regarding EMI Music's organizational structure, the Financial Times previewed EMI's financial performance for the first half of its fiscal year ended September 30. EMI Music is said to have an EBITDA of £59m in the six months to September 30. That compared with a loss of £14m last year. Revenues were £482 million and digital revenues increased 37% to £102 million. (The recent increase in digital revenues is a big improvement. Digital rose only 29% during the latest fiscal year.)

EMI will probably tout these results as a sign of its improvements, but the six-month EBITDA was not too far ahead of the mark achieved in EMI's painful fiscal year. As detailed in the brutally frank Maltby report a few weeks ago, EMI Music had EBITDA of £58 million in its fiscal year ended March 31, 2008. The company reported a loss of £757 million due to high restructuring costs, interest expense and "other" financial expenses.

EMI Music may have fewer returns and a more profitable roster, but depreciation and finance charges will knock any positive earnings measure deep into the red. Even so, the reported numbers show signs of improvement in spite of a depressed market share and questions about its ability to sign and/or develop talent.

October 24, 2008

EMI Reports £757 Million Loss, Receives Frank Assessment

For the year ended March 31, 2008, EMI lost £757 million (US $1.204 billion at today's rate) for private equity firm Terra Firma. Revenues dropped 19% to £1.45 billion for the year ending March 2008. EMI took a hit from £123 million of one-off restructuring costs. Most telling was EMI Music's loss of global market share -- to 9% from 12% a year earlier.

A PDF of the 101-page report can be downloaded here. It's good reading.

EMI Music's gross margin was 34% and EBITDA was £58 million (under 6% of sales). Operating loss restructuring costs were £150 million and total operational loss was £250 million. Interest expense totaled £165 million and "other" financial charges amounted to £258 million.

EMI Music's physical sales were down 28% in fiscal 2008 while digital rose 19% EMI Music revenues dropped 23% while EMI Publishing revenues increased 2%. Revenue from CD sales accounted for less than 40% of publishing revenues in 2008 (the fraction was almost 60% in 1999).

Lord Birt, the chairman of Maltby Capital, the investment vehicle of Terra Firma that acquired EMI, wrote an introduction to the report that laid out the problems and obstacles. Maltby was the firm that prepared the report. Here are the key points outlined by Birt:

The main factor behind the very large loss was continued operational poor performance, but more particularly accounting factors, in particular the revaluation of the balance sheet and the requirement to mark assets and liabilities to fair values.

While interest charges will recur annually and we anticipate a restructuring charge in the next financial year, we do not expect to see other costs and charges recur at the same level. Operating performance for the full year continued to be poor and this reflected long-term weaknesses in EMI Music which we discuss in this report.

EMI’s operational performance has improved significantly during the first seven and a half months of Maltby ownership and we expect the six months results ended 30 September 2008 to show year on year improvement.

EMI now has a stronger balance sheet and team with which to start a new era.

Birt blamed high expenditures, a "traditional way of looking at artists" more in tune with high CD sales, EMI's internal reporting for EMI's poor operating performance. But he insists EMI has "got costs under control" and has introduced more rational compensation policies as well as "business discipline." The brunt of the criticism is aimed at EMI Music. The publishing division is portrayed as being far more well run, progressive and profitable.

Overall, the report is very frank and honest. Sometimes it's too honest and too bright a light is shone on the company's poor management (there are quite a few "you've got to be kidding" moments about the company at the time of its acquisition). There are multiple admissions of problems with internal reporting that disguised the poor performance of EMI's new music sales. The overshipping of CDs was frequently blamed for EMI's ignorance of its eroding sales. Between 2005 and 2007 EMI CD sales fell 45% versus a 19% average market decline (page 18). That sound you just heard was my jaw hitting the ground. I'm amazed nobody knew what was going on and/or did nothing to address it. Incredible.

Later in the report, Maltby covers many of the changes that have taken place: overhauled compensation, the new matrix operational structure, improved internal reporting and analysis, a new corporate governance structure, clearer financial accountability and an effort by Malty to instill within EMI a culture of integrity.

More items from the report worth highlighting:

• As an example of how incentives were out of line with the goals of the company, unpaid advances were regularly written off as extraordinary items even though they were commonplace. "Because these provisions did not affect reported underlying earnings, there was little to discourage the practice of overpaying established artists." (Page 26)
• "A typical marketing and promotion spend on a developing artist in the UK was £98,000 which represented, on average, 81% of sales."
• "For audio assets, the top 250 artists today represent more than 75% of sales, leaving a long tail that is under-utilised." Actually, that looks about right. The hits represent the majority of sales, especially for a company obstensably in the business of making hits.
• "Recent investigation showed EMI Music to be the fourth largest spender on a well known taxi firm in London, with a bill of over £700,000 in the last year. This was only slightly less than the bills of 3 investment banks, with 8-10 times more staff than EMI Music."
• "Business practices that focused EMI Music on short term financial reporting goals are being actively discouraged. In particular, the company has now radically cut over-shipping of CDs, a practice which was distorting sales figures at quarter ends and resulting in substantial returns of CDs later down the line. CD return rates as a percentage of sales have been substantially reduced."

October 2, 2008

EMI Joins Comes With Music

EMI, the last holdout of the four major music groups, is now on board Nokia's Comes With Music service (press release). The news comes on the same day the new Nokia Tube touchscreen phone was unveiled and more details about Comes With Music have surfaced.

More on Comes With Music and Nokia's approach to music and media can be found on the virtual page for today's Nokia Remix event in London.

September 8, 2008

The Next Step: Changing Distribution

A few weeks ago I was thinking to myself, When is a major going to get rid of its physical distribution and outsource most functions or partner with another company? An indication came sooner than I expected. Today it was announced that Warner Music Group will distribution and market physical product for EMI in Southeast Asia. The companies have had a similar arrangement for India, the Middle East and North Africa since 2005. I was wondering about North America, not smaller and developing markets, but I think such partnerships here are inevitable. A permanent reduction in distribution workforce would have considerable cost savings. Since the number of labels and the number of titles released are not growing, physical distribution needs to be rightsized.

It makes perfect sense. First the majors got out of the manufacturing business. There has been some consolidation of sales and marketing for indies and majors (as in the case with EMM and Caroline). As both physical sales and the number of music retail sites drop, the logical step is to partner with another company to reduce the cost of physical distribution. Even the New York Times is doing it.

August 6, 2008

EMI & Warner Chappel: Nah

Pali Research, says this lengthy and worth-reading blog post at the Wall Street Journal's Deal Journal, suggested that EMI purchase Warner Chappel Music Publishing from Warner Music Group. The odds of that happening are slim to none, as Deal Journal explained.

The sale would allow for WMG to pay down its debt, but that's important only if servicing its debt is a problem. Right now, and especially after WMG suspended its dividend, this isn't a burning issue. The Goldman Sachs analyst who downgraded WMG the other day admitted the company appears able to meet its debt obligations.

For EMI to try to integrate Warner Chappel before the smoke clears on Terra Firma's reorganization would bring unnecessary stress to an already stressful turnaround attempt. Why bother?

Financing such a deal would be difficult in today's climate. Pali estimates Warner Chappel could sell for $1.95 billion. Publishing sits in a more favorable light than does recorded music, but if I was a bank I'd sit this one out and let Terra Firma get EMI on the right path.

Would regulators deny such a purchase? EMI has the largest music publishing market share, but publishing is more fragmented than recorded music (read about 2007 market shares here). If regulators could permit Sony BMG to exist, they could live with an EMI purchase of Warner Chappel.

But I don't see it happening. WMG doesn't need to sell right now, and EMI should focus on its own transformation.

July 25, 2008

Report: Stones To Leave EMI For Universal

Wow. The Times Online posted an article today that says the Rolling Stones will leave EMI and sign with Universal Music Group. No indication was given that EMI's new ownership or organizational structure was a reason for the departure. Instead, the article mentioned a "bidding war" and the Stones' desire to "court rivals in pursuit of a higher price."

This is a huge blow to EMI. It will miss out on both new releases and catalog since the Stones will take their post-ABKCO recordings to Universal.

July 16, 2008

Wednesday Business Links: EMI to Oursource UK Physical Distribution

• EMI announced it will shed its UK CD and DVD distribution and will outsource it to European logistics company CEVA, with which EMI works in a handful of countries on the continent. (Music Week)

• Muzu, an ad-supported video site that allows artists and fans to create their own TV channels, has launched in the UK and Ireland. Sony BMG and a number of indies (Ministry of Sound, Eagle Rock, Ninja Tune) are on board. (Irish Times)

• I hadn't heard much about Shockhound until recently. The upcoming -- launching next month -- online store was crated by Hot Topic (the retail chain that caters to emo and metal fans). The store will sell MP3s and merchandise (T-shirts and other items). (Boston Herald)

• People are chipping in to help out Philly's Siren Records and allow it to open in a different location. (Philly.com)

• DRM gets a vote of no confidence from the Library of Congress. (Ars Technica)

July 14, 2008

Report: Hands Proclaims EMI Improvement

There is finally some financial news on the great EMI overhaul. Music Week just put up a report that Terra Firma chief Guy Hands sent out an email to employees that described a "dramatic improvement" in EMI's first quarter financials. The recorded music division had an EBITA of £59.2 million and total revenues amounted to £288.1 million. That is an improvement on the loss of £45.1 million recorded music had last year, and a 61% increase in total revenues. (These numbers do not include the costs related to recent layoffs.) There was certainly a good deal of low-hanging fruit for Terra Firma, but those numbers are encouraging.

Hands credited the revamped organizational structure and reduced waste for the improvement. Returns of physical product was singled out as an improvement. Returns in Q1 2008 were less than 16% of gross sales, said Hands, compared to 42% in Q1 2007. He downplayed the impact the recent Coldplay release had on the quarter's results.

We have come a long way this year but, of course, there is still much to do. The problems facing the music industry cannot be solved in a few months.

However, it is already clear to me that what is emerging at EMI is not only a far leaner organisation, but a more focussed and effective one as well, and better aligned with the interests of our artists. An organisation that is becoming much better placed to serve artists and customers alike, and to give our talented people the opportunity and the tools to produce their best work.

Q1 2007 revenues were 5.1% lower than in 2006. EMI Music revenues dropped 13.4% and were blamed in part on a light release schedule.

July 7, 2008

Monday Business Links: Universal Attacks Slimming CD Margins

• In an effort to improve margins, Universal Music Group will bring back deluxe editions of CD releases for the fourth quarter (at least in the UK). Standard versions will also be available. (Music Week)

• EMI has appointed Elio Leoni-Sceti as its new music unit chief executive. On Leoni-Sceti's resume are stints at consumer product companies Reckitt Benckiser and Proctor & Gamble. (AP)

• More executive changes at EMI. Billy Mann, EMI Music’s Chief Creative Officer is in for departing President, A&R Labels - International and President - EMEA, JF Cecillon. (Alley Insider)

• The Orchard "substantially completes" its acquisition of TVT Records' assets (which includes masters, artist contract and office lease but not publishing). (Press release)

• A campaign by McCann-Erickson for Universal Music Group will give MasterCard users free downloads at www.priceless.com. After giving away the first 100,000, each track will cost $0.80. Being a Mastercard user I went to the site to test it out. After jumping through too many hoops, I ended up an an Amplified.com page and just gave up after being asked to register again. The prize packages are cool, but the free download aspect is pretty weak. (Billboard.biz)

• In Australia, brick-and-mortar sales of #1 albums dropped 30% and #1 singles dropped 40% in the first half of 2008. Those figures are not for all albums or singles, just the #1 singles. (Herald Sun)

• I haven't posted an article about vinyl's popularity in a few weeks, so here's another one. The article says vinyl sales in Ireland were up 20% in the first half of 2008. That's puny compared to the 77% increase in the U.S. in the first half of the year. (Times Online)

• Live Nation has purchased a controlling interest in France's Main Square Festival. (AP)

• A profile of Soundtrax, which makes music download cards. (Duluth News Tribune)

June 28, 2008

Report: EMI's Executive Group May Not Gain More Music Experience

The Financial Times has reported that Terra Firma is considering Elio Leoni Sceti, whose tenure with consumer products company Reckitt Benckiser was preceded by a stint at Proctor & Gamble, to run EMI's recorded music division. Mr. Sceti's appointment would mean Terra Firma would place chiefs at both the recorded music and publishing divisions. One could interpret that move as a facilitator to merging EMI's recorded music division with that of Warner Music Group.

If there was any doubt Terra Firma has little faith in the culture of the music industry to lead EMI to profitable territory, look no further than the executive ranks that are filling up with industry outsiders. The implication is Terra Firma believes music executives as well as larger shifts in technology and listening habits are responsible for EMI's position. The company's org structure has been radically overhauled and a third of its employees are being dismissed this year. This strategy of large shocks to the system contrasts with that of EMI's competitors, who are this far hoping to ride out this period of uncertainty with smaller layoffs, fewer organizational changes, slight changes in licensing of product and the occasional acquisition that adds diversification.

June 11, 2008

Far From Business As Usual At EMI

As I mentioned yesterday, Terra Firma's plan to change EMI's organizational structure, what Guy Hands has called a "global functional matrix organization," strikes me as an oddly timed experiment. And yes, it really is an experiment.

The Wall Street Journal's Ethan Smith confirmed an earlier report by Fox News' Roger Friedman that Capitol Music Group chairman and CEO, Jason Flom, would not be replaced.

Traditionally, the corporations that own the major labels have organized their operations geographically, with label heads for the U.S., the U.K., Europe and other regions operating with a fair degree of autonomy, overseeing A&R, marketing, promotion and other functions in their territories.

Since taking over last year, Mr. Hands has stated his desire to centralize such functions within the company. For instance, A&R executives in North America will now report to (head of A&R for the US and UK Nick) Gatfield, while marketing executives would report to a marketing czar, which EMI is currently looking to hire. Previously, both sets of executives reported to Mr. Flom, whose position wouldn't be filled.

Trink, who announced his resignation, told the WSJ's Smith he was leaving because of differences over Terra Firma's org chart.

In a telephone interview, Mr. Trink said the decision to step down was his, based on a "philosophical difference" with changes EMI's new owners were making.

"Their view is that there is no local management," Mr. Trink said. "There is no such thing as a president of Capitol Records going forward. I believe that's a mistake -- and not just because I happen to be the president of Capitol."

Some EMI hires have made sense. Former Google exec Douglas Merrill and Second Life co-founder Cory Ondrejka are no doubt tasked with finding new markets and new manners of music consumption and experience. They represent the future music business.

A shift toward technology and away from A&R fits with earlier statements by Terra Firma chief Guy Hands. "What we are doing is taking the power away from the A&R guys and putting it with the suits - the guys who have to work out how to sell music," he said in February '08.

How does the market feel about the strategy? If there is such thing as a score card on EMI's A&R outlook, it is EMI's loss of Radiohead and the Rolling Stones, public bickering of artist managers and Coldplay's sit-on-the-sidelines-and-wait delay in putting out its new album.

But getting rid of label presidents is a far riskier move. It implies one of two things: EMI's struggles are due to organization structure, not specific leadership, or label presidents' value to the company do not justify their salaries. With its new structure, EMI is betting that its "global functional matrix organization" is the best way to greet the future.

The thing about multi-national music companies -- just like other large, diverse corporate entities -- is within the larger company reside many unique company cultures. Each unique business unit may need its own unique leadership. Furthermore, different territories have different music markets -- especially the US and UK -- and managing two large and geographically separated divisions will be a challenge. At the very least, the new structure can run afoul of music industry executives' historical reluctance to work with people they did not hire themselves.

This is not to say the new organizational structure will not work. Hands may very well have on board the people who will buy into his vision -- there cannot be dissent if EMI is to meet its goals. But the timing of the changes adds greater risk to an already risky venture.

June 10, 2008

Report: Flom, Trick Out at EMI, Terra Firma Plots Brave New Org Chart

A report this morning by Fox News' Roger Friedman claims Capitol Music Group head Jason Flom and Capitol Records president Lee Trink will exit their roles at EMI and will not be replaced. The folks at Terra Firma, Friedman wrote, do not believe in label presidents...which means Coldplay will soon release the most important album of the Terra Firma/EMI era without anybody helming the ship. (Friedman is told all EMI labels will have "president of A&R" roles and heads of marketing, but no label presidents.)

Terra Firma has made some bold moves -- hiring Second Life co-founder Cory Ondrejka to its digital strategy team was an unconventional decision -- but this one is flat out suspect. The desired executive structure is not really the problem, it's the handling and timing of it. Not only is Hands & Co. toying with EMI's ability to sign and retain artists, it is revamping its organization chart at a precarious time. The company needs leadership at every level. This hardly seems like a time to experiment. But such is life on a private equity firm's accelerated timetable.

June 3, 2008

Tuesday Business Links: SpiralFrog Gets EMI, EMI Publishing Gets Ben Harper

SpiralFrog, provider of free, ad-supported P2P, has inked a deal to offer EMI Music's recorded music. The company has deals in place with a number of music publishers and Universal Music Group on the recorded music side. With EMI and UMG in place, SpiralFrog has about half of the major label market share for recorded music. Chairman and founder Joe Mohen told the AP that SpiralFrog is about a year away from turning a profit. (AP)

• Sony BMG's International's president of continental Europe, Maarten Steinkamp, will step down. (Music Week)

• Live Nation is increasing its advertising spending (a precursor to selling its own concert tickets?) in the UK. The concert promoter is looking for an agency to handle £10 million of media planning and buying, a figure that is up from its current £4 million annual account. (Brand Republic)

• EMI Music Publishing has signed a worldwide deal with Ben Harper. (Press release)

imeem is now inserting short audio advertisements between some songs. (Ad-Supported Music Central)

• New York record store Jammyland closed last weekend. (Crimes Against Music)

• Universal Music Group spent $180,000 on lobbying the federal government in Q1 2008. It spent $700,000 in all of 2007. Q1 money went for anti-piracy efforts as well as for appropriations relating to intellectual property theft enforcement, Internet and satellite radio issues and performance rights. (AP)

• A resolution that calls for the protection of terrestrial radio from royalties for the public performance of sound recordings has picked up the support of an eighth senator. The House version has the support of some 200 representatives. (Press release)

May 30, 2008

EMI Recap: Hands' Letter To Investors, Rumors About Recorded Music

On Wednesday, Terra Firma chief Guy Hands released his quarterly letter to investors. He wrote about EMI's difficulties and the current credit climate.

EMI is certainly not highly correlated to the economy. The issues and challenges facing the recorded new music side of the company are not due to the economic cycle, but to more fundamental shifts in consumer behaviour that are affecting the whole music industry. We are addressing these challenges, and working to develop a robust business model for the future. Meanwhile, and importantly, our investment has strong downside protection in the publishing and catalogue assets of the business, where revenues are on an upward trend. ...

From a financing perspective, unfortunately, the crisis has been so deep that the debt package has had to remain on the balance sheet of the bank which provided it. Clearly, this is a time when all banks are under tremendous pressure, but this is not ideal for EMI. In all leveraged buyouts, your bank is your partner, and we have worked hard, and continue to work hard, to see if there are ways to help Citigroup syndicate or sell down this loan.

The New York Post hopped on the story. "EMI's debt has been viewed inside Citi as largely unsellable, sources said," wrote Brian Garrity.

The Daily Swarm has the text of an article at The Evening Standard that says "the private-equity magnate is open to offers to split the business, and is considering selling off the recorded music arm." EMI would retain the publishing arm of the company ("where revenues are on an upward trend" Hands wrote in the letter). In addition, Hands mentioned considering moving EMI's U.S. headquarters to Los Angeles, according to the article.

Such a sale would result in three major music companies that would account for about 80% of all recorded music sales in the U.S. Economic efficiencies, yes, but this has got to be close to the point at which regulators become too uncomfortable with the concentration of market share. It would be bad for sales, too. Labels merge, bands dropped from contracts, fewer acts developed, fewer titles released, fewer units sold. Good for catalog sales, but at that rate the majors would be in jeopardy of becoming archivists rather than creators.

There may be whispers and musings about a company like Apple or Nokia buying EMI's recorded music division. Nothing seems like a good fit right now. Apple doesn't need to buy EMI Music just to make another $0.30 per track, and Nokia needs to prove its sales model and technology before considering an investment in music assets. Besides, history is filled with examples of parent companies failing to realize synergies with a media subsidiary. It looks good on paper, but it doesn't always work in reality.

May 18, 2008

Report: EMI To Miss Original Earnings Goal, Still Longs For Warner Music

The Telegraph reported today that Terra Firma has bought itself a bit of time with Citigroup. EMI reportedly now has an extra three months to reach certain financial targets. (To what degree these goals are tied to Citigroup financing is a bit unclear. A December 2007 article at the Telegraph said the recorded music earnings goal was not tied to loan covenants.) The recorded music division has a goal of £180 million in EBITDA by September. About £100 million is expected to be saved from a restructuring that reduced the staff by over 2,000 employees.

The report said internal sources claim the original June goal of £150 million EBITDA will be missed. The recorded music division is on pace for £133 million, which means label bosses will not receive bonuses. Instead, the entire workforce is being offered a back-end bonus. When Terra Firma realizes the value of its investment (through sale of refinancing) the entire recorded music workforce will receive 15% of the division's equity. Publishing employees get a similar deal.

The article ends with a tidbit about an EMI strategy to merge its recorded music division with that of Warner Music Group.

Terra Firma is also understood to be sitting on a secret long-term plan, code-named Project Poker, to tie-up with listed US major Warner Music Group, merging their struggling recorded music divisions. No approach has been made to Warner, but the strategy would be to sell on some music publishing assets in order to avoid regulatory constraints.

The two companies have danced around one another for a number of years and have not been able to either merge or acquire the other. The two planned on merging in 2000, when Warner Music was still a part of Time Warner, but pulled out later in the year due to regulatory concerns. More recently the two companies made offers and counteroffers before EMI was eventually acquired by private equity group Terra Firma in May of 2007.

May 12, 2008

EMI To Cut Another 1,000 Jobs

Update: EMI has denied The Telegraph's report that it will cut an additional 1,000 jobs. The company said it plans to have 2,700 employees by the end of 2008 and that "the new EMI" will be up and running by the end of June.

The Telegraph just reported that EMI will cut another 1,000 jobs. Those cuts are on top of previously announced plans to cut between 1,500 and 2,000 jobs. About 2,000 jobs -- down from 4,5000 when EMI was purchased -- will remain after the next round of cuts are made.

People familiar with the situation said Mr Hands was looking to cut more jobs at the company because, even after the round of redundancies announced in January, the business will still have more employees generating less revenues than its competitors at Warner Music and Universal.

Insiders speculated that the next job cuts will come in waves throughout the year.

From where I sit, it appears Terra Firma head Guy Hands is content to starve the beast rather than gain strength. For all its talk of improving A&R, which would impact its top line in the coming years, EMI seems to want the same bottom line simply through lower spending. It would have to be a far more efficient operation than currently exists. Cut just enough and EMI should be able to properly develop its artists. Cut too much and it will be undermanned and unable to realize its artists' potential. The wild card is EMI's future organizational structure and creative vision for monetizing its recordings. Just how the company will do more with less is quite a big question mark.

April 23, 2008

Capitol Music Group Reportedly Being Restructured

Terra Firma is finally making substantive changes to EMI's organization. FMBQ has some information on changes to Capitol Music Group's organizational structure. In addition to the promo group changes mentioned below, some staffers were laid off.

What transpired today is the assemblage of one central promotion team by which (EVP of Promotion Greg) Thompson will continue to oversee. Again, the composition of this central group, which includes a national executive team for every radio format and a field staff, has yet to be officially unveiled by the company. The function of this central promo team will be to service the following labels: the Capitol Music Group including Capitol and Virgin; all the imprints in the Bluenote Label Group including Bluenote, Angel, Manhattan, MetroBlue and Back Porch; the Caroline Music Group and Astralwerks. The team will also work in conjunction with the Nashville office for country crossovers and the EMI Christian Music Group for crossover artists as well. The U.S. Latin label is not part of this initiative.

Greg Thompson will continue to report to President Lee Trink, and he and his team will support and service all of the promotion efforts for the aforementioned label groups.

Billboard.biz named names:

Among those let go were Virgin Records VP of promotion Dave Reynolds, Virgin director of promotion operations Jordan Rosenblatt, Virgin Boston regional James MacDonald, Capitol Chicago regional Amy Kaplan and Capitol Florida regional Ric Austin. Additionally, several assistants have been let go from the Los Angeles office, including Jen Kelly.

April 14, 2008

Terra Firma To Cut EMI Staff By June

From the New York Post:

Three high-level industry sources familiar with the situation claim EMI needs more money to cover the restructuring costs, which are running higher than anticipated.

Once source said Terra Firma is looking to possibly raise another $60 million for EMI to help pay for the cuts. Multiple sources said raising the money was not going to be a problem for the firm. ...

Terra Firma insiders are attributing the holdup to European labor laws, which require a lengthy review process before pink slips can be handed out.

The cuts are now expected by June, a source said.

Darn red tape.

April 12, 2008

EMI Loans Caught Up In Credit Crunch

Citigroup has canceled plans to sell its EMI debt. The bank had lent about $4.9 billion to finance Terra Firma's acquisition of EMI and was planning to sell the debt to third parties. Risky debt is hardly popular these days. Citigroup will keep EMI's debt and sell off $12 billion of loans to the buyout firms.

From the Wall Street Journal: "Citigroup worried that such uncertainty would add to the squeamishness of the already-jittery debt investors it is trying to lure."

April 5, 2008

The Merrill Media Tour Continues

EMI incoming head of digital Douglas Merrill did a Q&A with Billboard.

There's actually academic data that suggests file sharing is good for some artists. That's very much against the common prevailing wisdom, but the minute you look at the data on it you find some fascinating things. I think part of what I'm excited about doing at EMI is doing a bunch of experimenting to see what works and what doesn't. How do we add value to artists? How do we help fans find and experience artists? How do we find the right value to add? I'm really looking forward to see what happens in the next 12 months.

If you sum all the papers on P2P, the overall opinion is that it neither helps nor hurts recorded music sales. Merrill is right to say file sharing helps some artists. Unfortunately for EMI, file sharing tends to hurts the big earners (this is supported by some research) and helps the most the sort of albums that don't recoup. If Merrill's presence can help turn mid-hits into profitable albums, EMI will have won half the battle. I don't doubt Hands believes a restructured, re-imagined EMI can be sustained with lower expenses. The other half of the battle is continuing to create big hits (which, again, are exposed to file sharing).

Hits also have the greatest exposure to format substitution. Hits are usually driven my singles, and customers are free to cherry pick the single and forgo the purchase of an album. I think one of Merrill's top goals should be to figure out ways to maximize the percentage of all purchases that are albums or bundles. When consumers embrace digital music, they tend to get more into a singles mindset. This is ruinous for record labels that can't recoup on sales of single tracks. You can argue that labels need to change so projects are less dependent on album sales and are more likely to break even, but most of that is out of Merrill's control.

Merrill also spoke with the Los Angeles Times and brought up the P2P topic.

As a sign of his willingness to consider bold moves, Merrill held open the possibility that people sharing music online -- an illegal practice that the music industry has fought to stop through lawsuits -- might help some artists during certain parts of their career. "Maybe a lot of the things we assume are not actually correct," he said.

I'm not sure where he's going with this. Can one harness file sharing at one point in an artist's career and minimize its damages at another point in the artist's career?

April 1, 2008

EMI Hires Google Exec To Head Digital

The fact that this news arrived on April Fool's Day gave me pause, but it appears to be legit. (Although All Things D confirmed this news twice, VentureBeat confirmed through a source Merrill's departure from Google, and News.com's Elinor Mills confirmed the Google and EMI angles, I hereby reserve the right to update this post with conflicting or correcting information.)

The news: EMI has hired away Google VP Engineering Douglas Merrill to be its new head of digital.

This is the kind of culture clash that will be written about for years to come. I hope somebody is going to do a Harvard Business School case study on Merrill's attempt to overhaul EMI's digital department and help transform the company into the next-generation media company imagined by Guy Hands.

Reading on Merrill:

February 14, 2008 interview with InformationWeek. "The CIO of tomorrow is not a business service person; the CIO of tomorrow is a technologist who understands business in a different way. The job I get to have, and I think is increasing prevalent in industry, is I get to find new ways to enable people to be more effective. I get a job which says, 'What are the business problems we have to solve and how can we transform them?' and that's a fundamentally different skill set."
March 18, 2008 interview with the Wall Street Journal.
Merrill's bio at the Google website

Side note: Someone at TechCrunch left the comment, "Roger federer is now the president of EMI? That has to be an april fools joke." Yeah, he does look like Federer!

March 19, 2008

EMI Plans To Be Part of "Comes With Music"

Coincidentally, EMI came out in favor of Nokia's Comes With Music plan on the same day news broke about Apple's early-stages talks about a similar device-plus-subscription bundle for its iPod and iPhone devices. Reuters has a very brief article. Nokia is set to roll out the service in the second half of the year.

"We want to be part of it. I believe strongly that when it launches we will be there, with a full offering," Wemppa Koivumaki, head of EMI Finland, said at a press conference.

How could Guy Hands, with a vision for a new kind of entertainment company, not be part of Comes With Music?

Both bits of news comes as worries mount that iPod sales are slowing and Nokia's stock took a hit over fears about the U.S. credit crunch and a slowing U.S. economy.

March 10, 2008

EMI Still A Memeber of IFPI

Billboard.biz reported today that EMI will remain a member of the IFPI (press release here). The company's new ownership had threatened to drop out. On January 8, Billboard.biz reported that EMI had sent a conditional resignation letter which said EMI would drop out at the end of this month unless "discussions with the other major labels over the future structure and funding of the IFPI and the national industry bodies...lead to a solution that we are able to support."

EMI was said to have wanted a more cost-efficient, global trade group rather than pay dues to separate groups such as the RIAA and IFPI. The company's stance has resulted in some changes at the IFPI, though nothing but cost savings were mentioned. Said EMI Music international labels president Jean-Francois Cecillon,

We undertook to work with our colleagues in the other major labels and with [IFPI chairman/chief executive] John Kennedy on a cost saving plan for the IFPI and together we have been able to find solutions which we believe are achievable whilst maintaining what the IFPI does best in representing our industry.

Update: The Financial Times article has information from a source that said the IFPI receives half its funding from national trade groups "but EMI had been able to make a substantial cut to its direct contribution."

January 30, 2008

EMI Deal With Daily News Shows Shift In Strategy, Failings Of Industry

There are a couple of ways to look at EMI's deal with the Daily News that will offer free downloads from the News' website to purchasers of the print version.

This deal marks the beginning of a new EMI and a fresh approach to generating revenue from its catalog. This one deal isn't going to change the company's fortunes, but it is important for symbolic reasons.

On the other hand, one has to wonder why this type of partnership had to be born from a private equity acquisition and management overhaul. What is preventing companies from marketing their catalogs in radically different ways that generate adequate returns? That's what this deal points to: A lack of creativity by the other three majors and a good portion of the indies. Different ideas aren't going to be enough. Radically different ideas are needed. Everybody's throwing things against the wall to see what sticks...but most often they're all aiming for the same part of the wall.

There have been few new ideas that represent this sort of shift in thinking. Here are the ones that stand out.:

One is Nokia's Comes With Music, a great combination of hardware and service. Sony BMG's MP3 cards, although universally scoffed at, shows a new way of thinking about non-traditional formats at non-traditional retail. Matador's "Buy Early Get Now" is a jump forward in approaching the timing and packaging of music. Selling downloads of original songs for use in video games (such as Guitar Hero) allows users to enjoy music in a totally new setting. And, of course, Radiohead's tip jar album release that preceded the standard CD and digital launch, which showed how simple distribution can be.

January 29, 2008

Follow Up To Post On Silos

As a follow up to my post on silos (and how EMI can't and shouldn't do too much to bring some of the down), here's a quote from New Improved Plan Resonate Blog that comments on a Wall Street Journal article on EMI's restructuring. I couldn't agree more with this post:

Jim Fusili at WSJ makes a pivotal error by assuming that EMI’s stated commitment to A&R will benefit "music lovers." Fusili asserts that EMI’s "silo mentality" leads to the unnecessary segmentation of consumers.

This would be true if EMI were in the business of directly interacting with consumers. They’re not. The music industry relies heavily on distribution partners and, most importantly, retailers. ...

Retailers use segmentation and classification to help customers find what they’re looking for. Distributors, ad agencies, publicists, booking agents, old media outlets, and new ones alike use segmentation to deliver an attractive product. Segmentation is useful and desirable in a world where so many different dialects are spoken.

Many hip hop fans love classical music, and vice versa, yet they don’t want to have to dig through the Lil Mama to find their Liszt.

Label execs generally won’t pretend to have the same talents of a successful local record shop manager. Similarly, financiers shouldn’t pretend to have the same talents of an A&R rep."

January 19, 2008

The Telegraph Interviews Guy Hands

If you're following Terra Firma's transformation of EMI, this Telegraph article on Guy Hands makes for good reading. The Telegraph actually spoke with Hands for the article. While it's not a tell-all in the vein of a Barbara Walters interview, it is a nice break from the usual ways we hear about EMI: prepared statements and anonymous sources.

January 18, 2008

Friday Business Links: EMI, Warner Music Group Bid on Chrysalis

• There are rumors that EMI has made an offer for Chrysalis, one of the few remaining independent music publishers in the UK. (BBC News)

• Reuters just reported that Warner Music Group has also bid on Chrysalis. (Reuters)

• FCC commissioner Michael Copps cautions against media companies being taken over by private equity groups and has urged the FCC to launch an investigation. His main complaint is the structure of these companies, which he argues may render the FCC unable to take action in the event something goes wrong. (Dow Jones)

• Alltell Wireless and mSpot have announced a new service called Music powered by Celltop, which allows users to access the DRM-free music collection on their PCs over the Alltell network. The service costs $3.99 per month of $9.99 for three months. (Press release)

• Spotted in a post about how MySpace is still killing Facebook in terms of traffic: "I spent some time on MySpace last night, exploring the profile pages of family and friends and was shocked to see that all the music players on the site are now sponsored by Zune. It was news to me but I'm told it's been that way for weeks. I haven't been able to find a single shred of coverage of that deal on any of the top tech blogs - but I would assume it's helping sell more Zunes than ever." I've looked at a dozen or so mainstream pop artists' MySpace pages and haven't seen anything sponsored by Zune. (ReadWriteWeb, via Techmeme)

• Physical music sales in France fell 17.1% in 2007. (Billboard.biz)

• An article about Indiedrive, an online music store that offers music only on 1GB USB flash drives. The flash drives, which cost on average $20 apiece, contain MP3 files, videos, pictures, artwork and anything else the artist wants to include. (Shakopee Valley News)

January 15, 2008

EMI Confirms Cuts

From The Guardian:

"EMI, bought by Guy Hands' Terra Firma group last year, confirmed today that worldwide headcount will be cut by between 1,500 and 2,000 as it slashes costs.

Confirming EMI insiders' fears, the company said ahead of staff briefings this morning that it was launching 'a series of wide-ranging initiatives within its recorded music division to enable the group to become the world's most innovative, artist friendly and consumer-focused music company."

January 14, 2008

More Reporting on EMI Changes

More reports about the coming changes at EMI, which will be announced to its staff tomorrow.

Wall Street Journal: "The private equity firm, which bought EMI last year for £3.2 billion, plans to strip EMI's individual record labels such as Capitol, Virgin and Parlophone of many of their responsibilities. Most or all of the labels' sales and marketing staff will become part of a new global structure reporting to EMI's headquarters in London, according to the person. That should leave the labels to focus on signing up musicians and helping them create music, known in the industry as artists and repertoire or A&R."

Times Online: "The cutbacks will focus on recorded music, which is less profitable than publishing. Mr Hands wants to exploit further the back catalogue at EMI, the label behind Kylie, Norah Jones and the Beatles, by digitising more recordings."

January 13, 2008

Report: EMI Plans To Cut 2,000 Jobs

The Times Online has an article today on the restructuring plan EMI will announce tomorrow. About 2,000 jobs are expected to be cut in an effort to reduce marketing expenses. Other highlights from the article: the company will be split into two groups (creative and back office) and a new incentive scheme will be based on profits. Take a look at the article for the details.

I'm practically in awe that EMI is taking the step to base incentives on sales and profits rather than shipments. It makes so much sense and would have been standard in any other industry in the world, but somehow music companies put the focus on shipments. In the digital era, shipments equal sales, so there's no issue. But on the physical side, basing goals on shipments too often puts the focus on the wrong part of the supply chain. Sometimes sell-through takes a back seat to loading up retailers and distributors. From my years in sales, I learned that goals based on shipments too often lead to excess product sent to accounts only to be returned after it gathered dust. The only winner is UPS.

January 12, 2008

The Hands Plan

Guy Hands, who is leading the transformation of EMI, is finding out how difficult change can be in the music industry. The head of EMI owner Terra Firma, a private equity firm, is faced with an artist-manager revolt over his plans to remake the troubled music group. Even though the status quo will be their downfall, artists and their managers are obviously far more comfortable with the status quo than the uncertainty that goes with the pending changes.

Today the Financial Times looks at Hands' artist manager problem. Tim Clark, Robbie Williams' manager, told the Times that in two meetings with EMI he saw none of the "fresh thinking" he believes the company needs, and he has urged other mangers of EMI artists to "demand answers to hard questions."

One EMI senior adviser said EMI's changes would make the company more effective. "There will be more people focused on A&R [artist and repertoire] than there are today" and that "A&R and artist support will be a bigger share of the business than it is today." That statement conflicts with earlier reports that EMI will cut its A&R staff and depend more on new technologies to discover and develop new artists. Here's a quote from a November 2007 article at the NY Post:

"The firm also wants to reduce costs in artist-and-repertoire and marketing by $58 million by using social networks and user-generated Web sites like MySpace to discover and promote talent."

Here's the thing: criticism of the old model are far easier to come by than specific examples of badly needed "fresh thinking." Whatever changes EMI eventually makes will alienate some artists and their managers. There is simply no way to make everybody happy. EMI will be faced with a slate of potential models that will result in few to many estranged artists. If Hands shows his mettle, he will do what is best for the company in the long term and ignore the impulse to make a few superstars happy in the short term. With no activist shareholders looking over his shoulder, Hands should be able to make the proper decisions.

January 6, 2008

Terra Firma Plans Movie Theater Events for EMI Artists

The Telegraph reported that Terra Firma is planning to broadcast live music events of EMI artists at movie theaters. An EMI spokesperson confirmed the report. The company owns Odeon and UCI, the largest theater outside of North America, and is looking to use this new format as a part of its transformation.

"Coldplay, the Spice Girls and other performers signed to the EMI label will be given the option of broadcasting a live concert to screens in dozens of cities. The format would be used to launch new albums, with fans, media and music executives invited to the screenings and given the option of picking up the CD or film of the concert on their way out of the cinema."

With most expectations for new revenue coming from mobile, this is an interesting development. And it's a good idea, though whether or not consumers will buy into the final product is far from known. I assume the price of admission will be similar to a movie. That's good, because concert ticket prices are getting ridiculous. And fans in markets not on a tour's route can still experience a live show. Incremental CD sales will be there, in small numbers, but the focus should be on revenue from the screenings.

January 2, 2008

Wednesday Business Links

• Ad-supported download site SpiralFrog has received a much-needed $2 million in additional funding in the form of convertible notes. The notes' interest is a tidy 12% annually, interest is to be paid quarterly and the principle is due on April 19, 2008. Between the company's IPO and these convertible notes, SpiralFrog has taken two of the more costly routes to raising money. (Press release, via paidContent)

• Digital track sales rose 47.7% in Britain in 2007. CD sales dropped 10%, according to the BPI. (Times Online)

• eMusic closed out 2007 with more than 400,000 subscribers (it was at 350,000 in November). The download site doubled its forecast for Christmas Day new customer trials. (Press release)

• An article for California residents or retailers doing business in California: A new California law, which went into effect yesterday, allows gift card holders to redeem for cash a balance of less than $10. (Modesto Bee)

• Antony Bruno has a list of artists that could possibly follow in Radiohead's footsteps. (Billboard)

• EMI artists are worried upcoming marketing budget cuts will hurt their sales. Gee, you think? EMI's problem is the same that William Hesketh Lever had a century ago: Half the money it spends on advertising and marketing is wasted, and the trouble is it doesn't know which half. If Terra Firma can figure out which half is wasted, EMI artists have nothing to worry about. But you know what? EMI artists should be worried. (Financial Times)

MeeMix, which streams music matched to users' tastes, went live yesterday. (VentureBeat)

December 3, 2007

Monday Business Links

• With so much attention being put on Terra Firma's cost-cutting plans for EMI, things are getting a little absurd. Check this quote from an article at The Telegraph: "EMI's new owner, Terra Firma, has told managers at the music company to only ship CDs they expect to sell after discovering millions of pounds were being lost annually because of returns." Maybe Guy Hands is really that green, but somebody should tell him that offering retailers a returns guarantee allows EMI to get titles stocked. Take away that returns allowance and add more risk than a retailer is willing to carry alone. If Hands & Company has a better idea, especially on how one could convince a retailer to • stock a developing artist, please share. (The Telegraph)

• The promo departments of Roadrunner and Atlantic will be merged. Current Lava VP or promo Mike Easterlin will replace Dave Loncao as Roadrunner's SVP or promo. (Billboard.biz)

• More layoffs: Island Def Jam laid off a dozen workers last Friday. (Silicon Alley Insider)

• West Babylon, New York indie store Looney Toons reopened after the owner decided to rebuild and improve the store after a devastating fire. Inventory grew by 30% and an in-store stage was added for performances. (Newsday)

• This article is a good overview of the proposed legislation in France that will punish its citizens who engage in illegal file sharing. One tidbit I did not know: French music legend Johnny Hallyday endorsed Nicolas Sarkozy. (International Herald Tribune)

• The Digital Pricing Conundrum Part IV: The Loss of Resale. "On average, you'd pay $10.19 for one of the top-10 titles in iTunes, as opposed $11.49 for the equivalent CD. But you could, on average, net $6.23 for subsequently selling your CD. So the mean potential 'loss of resale' premium for these iTunes albums was $4.93." Read this Coolfer post about the value in the choice to resell a CD. (Digital Audio Insider)

• Greg Kot interviews Paul McCartney. Kot asks the (sadly) predictable question, Are record labels done? McCartney responds, "No. It's not final. I feel like I made the right decision, because right after I left, EMI got sold, so obviously something was wrong. They are now in new hands and are applying themselves and they're going to bring themselves into the modern world." (Chicago Tribune)

• Coolfer has a Facebook page. Sure, why not? So many people use Facebook these days, it's the best place to keep in contact. Feel free to befriend me. (Coolfer on Facebook)

• Arguments for dropping DRM: Getting rid DRM is bad only for the most risk-averse and pessimistic in the industry. Without DRM, entrepreneurship will flourish and labels can enter a new era of marketing. Whatever increases in piracy result will be overshadowed by the gains from a growing digital market. The bottom line is the bottom line: A net gain. Not a silver bullet, but a net gain. (Big Red Horseshoe)

November 28, 2007

Wednesday Business Links

• The Financial Times continued its critical coverage of EMI owner Terra Firma today with a report that Terra Firma chief executive Guy Hands sent letters to the RIAA and IFPI that threatened to cut off EMI's funding to the trade groups. Hands considers the $25 million per year it gives to both bodies another example of wasteful spending. As the article points out, if EMI stopped paying the IFPI and RIAA, it would have to make do either lobbying for itself and tracking down both physical and digital pirates on its own dime, or do away with all three activities. Some may look at this as a sign that Hands does not approve of the activities the RIAA and IFPI undertake on EMI's behalf, but it could be nothing more the latest result of cost-cutting brainstorming sessions. (Financial Times)

• C3 Presents, the company behind Austin City Limits and Lollapalooza, will partner with UK company Festival Republic (Live Nation) to launch the Vineland Music Festival. The site, in Vineland, New Jersey, is between Philadelphia and Atlantic City. The festival, to be held August 8-10, will be a camping festival like Bonnaroo. (Billboard.biz)

• I learned something in this good post about file-sharing and indie labels: Gold Standard Laboratories shut its doors a few weeks ago. "Part-owner and main man Sonny Kay ran the label either from a dirty office in LA or from internet cafes and phone boots across the world while being on tour with his own screamo punk bands. Addressing in an email what forced him to shut down he said: 'Filesharing was never much of a problem until everyone got the ipod, then the sales disappeared overnight.' And this comes from a label which is, I mean was, looked upon as the Warp of punk rock – releasing extreme punk and experimental music - NOT a label that produce radio hits." (Vegard Waske)

• Mark Piibe, formerly the SVP and head of content at MusicGremlin, has been hired as EMI's SVP of digital business affairs. (Silicon Valley Insider)

• A discussion of breakage at eMusic. "The current payout rate of 30.5 cents a track actually exceeds what I'm paying per track via my $9.99 for 40 downloads subscription (the old rate) and approaches what newer subscribers ($9.99 for 30 downloads) are paying for each track. (And the per-track rate actually goes much lower with booster packs and bigger subscription plans!) Using the 'half the subscription revenue goes to labels' formula (and ignoring any deducted costs), it seems likely that the zero-breakage per-song payout rate would be somewhere around 12 to 17 cents. The fact that it's twice that amount indicates just how much breakage is occurring each month." Said an anonymous commenter, "Average breakage at eMusic is right around 50%." (Digital Audio Insider)

• Warner Music Group formed a partnership with the family of Frank Sinatra to "integrate content, rights management and the preservation of the legendary entertainer's inspirational personality and prodigious body of work under a single entity." Frank Sinatra Enterprises will manage all things Sinatra and handle licensing of his name and likeness. (Press release)

• The Orchard has inked a distribution deal with historic Vee-Jay Records. (Press release)

November 25, 2007

FT Critical Of Hands' Plan For EMI

The Financial Times' Lina Saigol has a piece titled "Legacy of Winning the Wrong Auction" that's worth a read. An excerpt:

"Bankers bored of the credit squeeze are now obsessing over Guy Hands and his £4bn investment in EMI. Word is the chief executive of buy-out group Terra Firma is in a wild panic about his impulsive acquisition and how he'll manage to make a return on the record company he bought on the back of 43 pages of basic due diligence."

Saigol outlines five problems: too much money invested in EMI; too many staffers working only on EMI; cutting costs without hurting performance; securitising music business cash flows in a tough credit market; and Hands' "shape-up-or-ship-out" stance with lazy artists.

If I was going to add something, I'd expand on Hands' cost-cutting plans. For example, Terra Firma's proposal to cut A&R expenses in part by scouring social networking sites for new talent would make for a horrible strategy. If EMI invests money based on often meaningless MySpace (and the like) popularity, it's going to find itself with a roster of Tila Tequilas with little long-term potential.

Another problem with cost-cutting is that it will hamper labels' and distributors' ability to properly work releases. The natural result will be fewer releases to match the lower level of costs. Fewer releases equal lower revenue. This is the nature of an industry that is rather unique in the business world: entertainment companies must constantly launch a high number of new products. Big earners tend to have short shelf lives and must be replaced by new earners.

Success through cost cutting makes far more sense in an industry with more stable revenue and long-living products with a high level of brand equity. Hands should focus more on internal improvements and investments and less on cost cutting.

November 13, 2007

Tuesday Business Links

The New York Post got its hands on a confidential investor presentation in which EMI owner Terra Firma outlines its plans to improve its position in the music company. Highlights: Terra Firma is looking for $223 million in fixed costs savings (mostly in recorded music); it plans to cut $31 million from sales and distribution; it expects to save $58 million in A&R costs by utilizing social networking websites to find and promote artists; and it hopes to improve cash flows by 766% over five years by taking advantage of improved digital and mobile margins. In addition, Terra Firm has set aside $100 million for acquisitions of smaller indie labels. That's quite a wish list. (New York Post)

• The new Microsoft Zune devices officially launch today, but there was a lot of coverage yesterday. Engadget compiles some (positive) reviews of the updated portable media player. As always, most of the fun is in the comments. (Engadget)

• Silicon Valley Insider wonders how low Warner Music Group's stock can drop. Pali Research's Richard Greenfield, who just helped prompt a drop to his target price of $7.50, has now set a target at $5.00. Greenfield is worried about the loss of CD shelf space after Christmas. Is that really the only reason for the lower target price? That should have been built in a while ago since we've known for a while -- and has been speculated for eons -- that labels are going to get less love from the mass merchants and chains after the Christmas selling season. No secret there. (Silicon Valley Insider)

• Music-oriented social networking are the new social networking sites, which were the new coffee houses, which were the new bagel shops, which were the new video arcade/ice cream parlor. Here's an article on Cyloop.com, which has deals with Warner Music Group and The Orchard and plans to wrap up Sony BMG and Universal Music Group by the end of the year. Unlike most social networking site,s Cyloop has a niche: the Hispanic market. (Miami Herald)

• Warner Music Group chief executive, Edgar Bronfman Jr., is warning mobile operators to improve their music offerings or lose ground to the likes of Apple and Google. "With Apple's iPhone innovation and Google coming in, if the mobile phone industry doesn't respond with highly competitive offerings, they're going to watch their share of the opportunity diminish," he said. And as operators' share of the opportunity wanes, so do labels' fortunes. (Financial Times)

• For you lawyer types or those simply interested in RIAA lawsuits: "Examining Hard Drives During Discovery." Here's a sample: "The right to examine the contents of an opponent's computer hard drive has been categorized as unusual relief, yet can prove valuable during the discovery process. Nonetheless, under the federal rules, courts will not, as a matter of course, grant a party's demand routinely. Rather, imaging is generally permitted when there is a finding that an adversary's document production has been inadequate and that a hard drive examination could uncover omitted, relevant materials. In the absence of such a strong showing, courts can be reluctant to allow an examination, particularly given that hard-drive imaging can be a costly procedure that adds to the litigation expenses of all parties." (Law.com)

Optimal's VinylDisc, one side vinyl and the other side CD, will be chart-eligible in the U.K. (mi2n.com)

November 1, 2007

Update: EMI Digital Album Market Share Up Again

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Over the last few months I've covered EMI's market share to measure the impact of its digital strategy. Links to previous posts are below. It has been five months since EMI dropped DRM on its downloads. In that time, its release schedule has been relatively weak and the overall recorded music market has experienced a slowdown.

Since EMI dropped DRM in late May and got a big launch day boost from iTunes, its digital album market share is up 8.9%. The other three majors have mixed results. Sony BMG has lost market share for both configurations, Warner Music is mixed but fairly even and Universal Music Group is up markedly for both configurations.

EMI's digital share currently stands at 10.1% (though October 28). It was 10% at the end of September, 9.9% at the end of August and 9.7% at the end of July. At the end of May, when iTunes started selling DRM-free EMI tracks, the market share was 9.3%. Those small increments add up -- one tenth of one percent of digital album market share equals almost 40,000 units. Eight percentage points equals about 320,000 units.

The problem here is that EMI's CD market share has dropped 5.5% since late May is even worse for the bottom line. Each tenth of a percent of CD market share equals 330,000 units. A drop in CD market share to 9.3% from 9.8% is a loss of 1.65 million units.

The telling aspect about the above graph is how EMI's CD and digital album market shares have moved in the opposite directions. The company's CD share has dropped while its digital album share has risen. When both move in the same direction, as is the case with two of its three competitors, it indicates the relative popularity (or lack of) of a company's release schedule. But when the two move in opposite directions, it is a sign that other factors are at play. In the case of EMI, the company has improved its competitive position at digital stores. EMI has had a relatively weak release schedule since late May and has seen its CD market share drop since Norah Jones' album was released in late January.

Without the presence of something to jump start its digital position -- dropping DRM, getting prime attention at iTunes -- EMI's change in digital share would be similar to its negative change in CD share. A good estimate is a 15-point difference in digital album share. That equals about a 600,000-unit swing.

Previous posts on EMI's market share since May:

EMI Math: Graph Of A Digital Sales Increase
EMI's New Digital Strategy May Have Prevented A Worse June/July Slide
An Update On EMI's Digital Album Share

To download a PDF of this post, click here.

October 29, 2007

Monday Business Links

• The New York Post reported this morning that EMI owner Terra Firma has been seeking additional funding in order to lower its position -- and therefore risk -- in the music company. Sources logically wonder how Terra Firma could dilute its equity position so soon if it wasn't disillusioned by EMI's prospects. (The article says Terra Firma performed "limited due diligence" and now has a better understanding of EMI's financial position. I'd be surprised if Terra Firma performed anything but thorough and exhaustive due diligence given the target's precarious position.) In addition, the private equity group is reportedly mulling the sale of EMI's distribution unit as a way to cut costs and raise cash. (New York Post)

• MTV is moving into song lryics. Using Gracenote's technology and database, MTV will incorporate lyrics into its websites and plans to launch a new television series called "Name That Tune." (Crave)

• The New York Times' Janey Morrissey has an article on how rock bands today are minding their money and creating non-album revenue streams. (New York Times)

• Labels are pleased with initial results of album-specific download cards. Sixteen percent of digital downloads of Eddie Vedder's "Into the Wild" -- six percent of all sales -- came from 4.5" by 6.25" iTunes cards. (Billboard)

• Pollstar asks why more artists don't sell CDs of their own performances. Short answer: Some promoters have rights to venue recordings, there are origination fees to pay and the CD-creating hardware isn't cheap. If consumers would be happy with getting files on their own thumb drives, at least part of those costs could be avoided. (Pollstar)

• An interesting comment from The Eagles' Don Henley on this article about the band's upcoming, Wal-Mart-distributed album: "The Internet is a wonderful thing, but as a tool for distributing music, it doesn't matter if you can reach the whole world if your fans can't find you. The Internet has not worked out on a large scale for anyone I know. So some people are going with indie labels, which for the most part are distributed by majors. And some have gone with certain large coffee companies." (Boston Globe)

September 16, 2007

Terra Firma Has No Plans To Sell EMI, Aims For Mid-Level Hits

A report at The Guardian says private equity firm Terra Firma has no plans to sell EMI. Said Guy Hands in an address to the Royal Television Society:

"We are determined to keep that part of the business and we are determined to make it viable. ... We look for the worst business we can find in the most challenged sector and we get really happy if it's really, really bad. EMI, our most recent investment, is a classic example. We're just hoping EMI is as bad as we think it is."

Hands indicated he wants EMI to survive less on big hits (a lot easier a task since Radiohead's contract expired) and more on less successful titles. "The vision of EMI is to be big enough to do everything we can for every artist, but small enough to care for every artist." Of course, with hits selling less and the marketplace becoming more fractured, that kind of goal almost goes without saying. There's no way around scaling down one's goals.

Selling less of more is easier said than done. It's an imperative that has been said all decade and nobody at a major has figured out how to do it. The best way to do it, in my opinion, is to sign artists to contracts that bring in other revenue streams such as touring and merchandise. That lowers the risk inherant to every new artist. EMI has not made the acquisitions and joint ventures that its competitors have made to position itself for such contracts.

If Terra Firma plans on succeeding just with music and publishing, and honestly wants to lower the threshold for success, there is one option: Act like an indie. That means operating on a thin and lower-paid staff with fewer resources. It would be a double-edged sword, though, since that kind of operation would be limiting in the end.

As for that thin staff...the Times Online read something in Hands' speech that The Guardian did not. Dan Sabbagh thought Hands' statement about getting away from "the cult of the hit" was a hint "at what are likely to be deep job cuts in EMI’s 5,500-strong workforce."

August 29, 2007

Nicoli Out At EMI

Eric Nicoli is out as the chief executive of EMI. Nicoli, as well as finance director Martin Stewart (read bio here) will depart the company that just weeks ago was acquired by private equity Terra Firma. He will leave with a $5.6 million payout. Chris Rolling, who comes from chemical company ICI, will be the new CEO and COO and will report to Terra Firma boss Guy Hands. Roger Faxon will continue to run EMI's publishing division. Ashley Unwin, formerly with Deloitte Consulting, will be brought on as director of business transformation.

The pieces are in place to radically transform EMI. Given the marketing deals now in place, as well as the company's stated goal of extracting value from the EMI catalog, separating recorded music from publishing seems unlikely -- in the near term. The Times Online on Terra Firma's move to bring in music outsiders:

"His appointment is a deliberate attempt to bring in outsiders to a business. The venture capital group wants managers who 'serve the artists' rather than 'spend their time hanging out in LA,' although they are willing to bring in new executives with music experience if they feel that credibility with talent is important at a senior level. ... The new team's strategy will be determined over the next few months, but Terra Firma said that the 'initial focus will be maximise the value of the significant assets in EMI's publishing business and to realise the digital opportunity in recorded music'. Insiders said a rapid sale of the recorded music business to Warner Music was off the agenda."

Billboard.biz reports of an internal letter to EMI artists sent by Nicoli that offers assurance that Terra Firma is committed to growth and respect toward the artists.

New management after an acquisition is common, but some thought Nicoli would stay on board. Just yesterday, the free London daily City A.M. reported that Eric Nilcoi would run EMI's recorded music division post-buyout, while Roger Faxon will continue to run the publishing unit. (City A.M. PDF, via Silicon Alley Insider)

August 27, 2007

Monday Business Links

• Rumor is that Apple will release a new iPod on September 5. (Ars Technica, via Listening Post)

• An Arbitron executive talked of the relationship between employment and radio listening. People who are employed listen more than unemployed and part-time workers. Also, men are listening more than women. (Radio Ink)

• EMI band Athlete is the first chart-eligible U.K. single to be bundled with a tutorial video. "Hurricane" comes with the video, guitar tablature and a preview trailer of the band teaching consumers how to play the song. (Billboard.biz)

• HMV Canada is unilaterally dropping prices on its catalog CDs by up to 33%. (Billboard.biz)

• Classical labels' fall schedules are filled with popular works performed by popular artists. (Billboard)

• AllOfMP3.com will be back "in the foreseeable future," according to a post at the site. (AllOfMP3.com, via Tech Crunch)

• The ridiculous exaggeration of the week comes from Erik Himmelsbach's review of the book "Marooned" in the Los Angeles Times: "Satellite and the Internet and such services as iTunes are making the airwaves pretty much obsolete." Must be quite a bubble he's living in. (Los Angeles Times)

August 16, 2007

Thursday Business Links

• The New York Post's Brian Garrity has an article today on some staffing possibilities at EMI. The company, he reported, is considering a role for Terra Firma managing director Stephen Alexander, and looking for an executive to run day-to-day operations and may look outside of the music industry. (New York Post)

• Social video site Bolt.com has ceased operations. A goodbye letter is at the site. "Please be advised that the operations of Bolt, Inc. and Bolt.com have ceased. Net Revolution, Inc. and Bolt, Inc. have executed an Assignment for the Benefit of Creditors effective as of August 14, 2007." UMG sued Grouper in October 2006 and later settled for $10 million in March 2007. (Bolt.com)

PassAlong Networks has spun off its Speakerheart platform. PassAlong co-founders Jozef Nuyens and Brad Edmonson will head the new company. Speakerheart allows indie musicians to publish, promote and sell their music online. (Press release)

• Classic. The migration from the majors to indie Koch continues. Foxy Brown has ended her relationship with Def Jam and will move to Koch. The deal includes her own imprint, Black Rose Entertainment. An argument could b made that Brown had worn out her welcome at Def Jam, but the writing is on the wall. If you're not selling many albums, and you're a rapper, why not shoot for a lower breakeven point? (Billboard.biz, which could not be a slower website.)

• A Russian court found the head of allofMP3.com not guilty of copyright infringement. Said the judge, "The prosecution did not succeed in presenting persuasive evidence of his involvement in infringing copyright law." In response to the defense's argument that allofMP3.com had paid part of its income to ROMS, a Russian collection organization, the judge said, "Everybody who uses soundtracks has to pay a certain amount of their income to the rights holders and this company has done that. MediaServices (the owner of allofMP3.com) has paid a certain amount of money to ROMS." (Reuters)

• The Guardian asks, "Can Universal turn the tide against Apple's iTunes?" I put in a "yes" vote, but UMG does not want to hurt iTunes as much as it wants to grow the overall pie. Everybody knows iTunes is going to be the dominant force in digital music retail for many years to come. (The Guardian)

• Clear Channel restated earnings for the period 2002 through 2006. Revenues dropped 9% for each of those years. The basis for the restatement was a reclassification of the company's television business and radio stations to discontinued operations. Clear Channel announced its plans to sell 448 radio stations in November 2006. By June 30, 2007, the company had sold 26 stations and had definitive agreements to sell 374 more stations. (AP and 8-K filing)

• How much would terrestrial radio stations owe to sound recording owners if they had to pay such royalties? MusicFIRST believes about 3% of revenues would be an "equitable" rate. To put some fear into people, the National Association of Broadcasters threw out a far scarier figure of 10-35% of revenues. (Listening Post)

• Here's an interview with Ministry of Sound head of digital sales, Jim Haysom. MOS has a number of ways to push its video content. Notably, it has achieved click-through rates from 5-9% from its pre-roll video ads and banners. The typical European banner ad gets a click-through rate of just 0.19%. (E-Consultancy)

August 15, 2007

EMI's New Digital Strategy May Have Prevented A Worse June/July Slide

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About a month ago I posted a graph that showed EMI's year-to-date market shares for digital albums and CDs. The cumulative figures showed EMI's digital market share had increased in the month after the company dropped DRM at iTunes.

Over the last two months, EMI's overall market share dropped 1.7%. An encouraging sign for its digital strategy? For the most part, yes. It appears that EMI would have fared worse over the last two months without gains from its digital strategy.

To properly look at how the strategy is working, it's best to look at EMI's numbers versus the market shares of the other majors. The above graph shows EMI and Sony BMG have lost market share over the last two months while Universal Music Group and Warner Music Group have increased their market shares. The other striking thing here is that the change in digital, CD, total album and digital tracks market shares of all three of EMI's competitors go in the same direction. That is to say that if Sony BMG's CD share dropped, so did its digital album and digital track share, and if UMG's digital share increased, so did its other shares.

Let's look at album market shares. EMI has increased its digital album market share by 5% in the last two months, but its CD share has dropped 2.6%. EMI's total market share -- including all other formats -- has dropped 1.7%. Note that CD and digital are going in the opposite directions. Also note that the end result, the total change, is negative. EMI and iTunes have been able to get people to buy more digital albums, but total market share has dropped. Is this because of a CD-for-digital substitution or because EMI's releases were relatively weak compared to those of its competitors?

EMI's June/July release schedule was not strong. EMI has barely been in the Top 40 over the last two months. New releases by Interpol, Korn, Now 24 have landed in the Top 40. Most of EMI's best-selling albums are holdovers like Corrine Bailey Rae and Norah Jones below #50. The light schedule could explain a good portion of the decline in overall market share, but why didn't EMI's digital track share go up? Even after giving consumers a DRM-free option, EMI's share of digital track sales actually dropped 1.4% in June and July.

The difference in digital album and track market shares can best be explained by the differences in pricing. Album purchasers are more drawn to unprotected downloads than are track purchasers. That is probably because DRM-free tracks' higher price of $1.29. DRM-free albums cost the same as protected albums. Both have the old, standard $9.99 price tag. Consumers may view $9.99 for a DRM-free album as a better value, and so they are buying more. But $1.29 for a DRM-free track? Consumers appear not to see a similar increase in value. Given the weak release schedule, though, it's hard to read too much into the decrease in digital track share. With stronger new releases, EMI's digital track share could easily have increased. Slightly fewer tracks sold at a higher average price could lead to an increase in overall revenue, so a drop isn't all that bad.

Sony BMG has fared even worse and reflects what EMI's market shares would be in the absence of an improved digital album share. Its overall album share dropped 2.8% and its digital track share sank 1.6% When all three drop in tandem, that tells me the company's release schedule is the prime reason, not a change in strategy. Relatively weak releases will lower market share while a stronger release schedule will increase market share. Because their three shares rose in tandem, UMG and WMG market shares appear to be related to their release schedules as well.

Is EMI's increase in digital album market a short-lived burst of consumer enthusiasm, the result of shrewd marketing or an indication that its overall strategy will pay off? It's just too early to tell. The publicity surrounding EMI's DRM-free downloads has surely had a a positive impact. My gut tells me the gain in album market share is not a short-lived burst, but a good thing won't go unnoticed by EMI's competitors. A competitive advantage like this can dry up quickly.

Wednesday Business Links

• Album sales dropped 3% last week and were 14% lower than the same week last year. For the year, album sales are down 14%. Last week's #1 album was a debut, UGK's Underground Kingz (Jive). With sales of 160,000 units, it was the only album to break the 100,000 mark. Digital track sales were flat last week and were 45% higher than the same week last year. For the year, digital track sales are up 48%.

• Everyone is always looking for a sign that the Beatles' catalog will be released digitally, and we're getting warmer. John Lennon's solo catalog -- sixteen albums -- is now available at iTunes. (Sydney Morning Herald)

• A year-long EMI marketing project will be handled by Saatchi & Saatchi. Well, music is marketing. (AdWeek.com)

• Sirius Satellite Radio inked a deal with Sonos that will allow subscribers to stream Sirius at home through Sonos' home music systems. A 30-day trial will cost subscribers an additional $2.99. Only 80 Sirius channels are available, and the home streaming service will be available only to U.S. subscribers. (Hollywood Reporter)

• Here's an idea: An underage music festival held in the London. The Underage Festival was open for people aged 14 to 19 and hosted 37 bands on four stages. "Corporate sponsors have been quick to embrace the trend, and all the hard parts — staging, logistics, security — have been arranged and paid for by the likes of MySpace, Converse and BBC's Radio1. Seizing the moment, UK indie music company Mute Records has also launched a label, Irregulars, pitching new, young talent at a new, young market, with (event organizer Sam) Killcoyne on board as a talent-spotter." (Time)

• Hal Hassel is moving from CMT.com to VP, Consumer Marketing at echomusic. (Music Row)

• Music bloggers, here's a topic for conversation: Spoon's Ga Ga Ga (Merge) came out the same week as Interpol's Our Love To Admire (Capitol). Currently Spoon sits at #68 and has sales of 100,000 in five weeks. Interpol is at #85 -- and dropping -- and has sold 129,000. Spoon is on an indie, Interpol is on a major. If nothing else, this makes for a good addition to the "indie or major?" debate.

• Jeff Leeds has an article on very overlooked marketing tools: Mobile phones and text messaging. It's not the sexiest medium in the world, but there's money to be made by artists, promoters and artists. (New York Times)

August 13, 2007

Monday Business Links

• Universal Music Group will buy V2 Records from Morgan Stanley for $14 million (though reported price tags vary). The V2 roster includes Brit legend Paul Weller, the Stereophonics, Elbow and Bloc Party. The deal does not include V2 North America, which was sold to Sheridan Square for $15 million last year. The label merged with Artemis and had been demoted to a catalog-only label. (Reuters)

• The New York Post has an article on the collaboration between Epic Records and Koch Records. "Lacking a dedicated staff to market the songs specifically to hip-hop/ R&B radio stations and music video outlets like BET, Epic hired New York-based Koch, home to rappers including Jim Jones, UNK and DJ Khaled, to do it for them." (New York Post)

• Sanctuary Group chairman Robert Ayling, as well as James Wallace, Tina Sharp and John Preston, are no longer on the company's board of directors. (Billboard.biz)

• EMI has a deal with Arvato Mobile that will allow Arvato-powered carriers (T-Mobile, Swisscom, Mobilkom) to offer EMI videos to mobile phones or PCs. Content such as videotones, wallpapers and full-track downloads are also part of the deal. (Mobile Entertainment)

• A profile of new industry site The Daily Swarm. "We all saw that there was a ton of music-business information scattered around the Web, but there wasn't really one place that was bringing it all together." Side note: Coolfer will turn four years old this month. Thanks for reading. (Chicago Sun-Times)

• According to the BPI, UK music sales in France and Germany hit a four-year high last year. UK artists represented 23 of the top 100 albums in Germany. (BBC News)

• An interview with Guy Fletcher, head of music publisher MCS. "The internet is fast becoming a major platform for delivery of music in many different contexts. However, the advent of internet social networks, peer-to-peer file sharing, free downloading, etc. have created communication systems whose operators are generally unwilling to enter into licensing agreements with collection societies making it difficult, if not impossible for them to keep track of the online use of our copyrights." (The Telegraph)

• EMI's Blue Note Records is going to change its website to incorporate social networking and direct-to-consumer downloads. (The Register)

• Apple now offers iTunes widgets. (My iTunes, via Digital Music News)

August 6, 2007

Monday Business Links

• In an interim management statement released today, EMI said its first quarter revenues fell 5.1%. Its recorded music segment was down 13.4% while revenues in its publishing division increased 11.9%. Digital revenues increased by 26%. Physical revenues dropped 19.8%. (Press release)

• Music download site Amie Street, which incorporates dynamic pricing, has received funding from Amazon.com. Having such a high profile investor will help put Amie Street on the map. This is good news for the concept of dynamic pricing. For the greater recorded music industry to accept dynamic pricing -- or even to try it out -- would require the presence of a company like Amazon.com. And it would be nice to have more proof that Apple is either right or wrong when it comes to pricing digital music: Do consumers need one standard, simple price? (Digital Music News)

• Universal Music Group is said to be in the market for Chrysalis's music publishing. (This Is Money)

• John Wenzel of the Denver Post attributes the success of rock band The Fray to MySpace...even though airplay and exposure on "Grey's Anatomy," "Scrubs" and "One Tree Hill" is what drove people to the band's MySpace page. (Denver Post)

• The Times Online looks at the fundraising models of Sellaband.com and Slicethepie.com and theorizes that they could act as a scouting mechansim for majors. "If Sellaband and Slicethepie can unearth credible acts with such committed fans, the big bucks – and all their media buying power – may come calling." I think the touring circuit will continue to be a better place to find potential. (Times Online)

August 3, 2007

What Advice To Give EMI?

Mark Mulligan at Jupiter has some advice for EMI, and it has me scratching my head. Here's part of Mulligan's blog post that outlines a few of EMI's problems and his advice:

"So what can EMI do? Well continuing to aggressively pursue digital strategies is at the core. Strong iTunes download rates suggest some long overdue momentum in the digital market but it is still heavily skewed towards singles. EMI (and the other labels) need to aggressively incentivise consumers to buy albums. That means making them significantly cheaper than a CD on Amazon (digital is an inherently inferior product after all). This requires some brave licensing initiatives with the retailers. Once that strategy is in place the orders of magnitude of download revenues will augment strongly. It won’t be a like for like increase, but it will be sizeable."

Mulligan is a very good analyst with a keen eye toward emerging technologies. Maybe that's the problem with the advice. It's too shallow. EMI's problems go well beyond its digital strategies.

EMI needs to do far more than figure out a way to sell (a) more digital music and (b) more digital albums. Even the most successful, brilliant digital strategy isn't going to help with two of EMI's historical problems, a weak urban presence and difficulty breaking hit UK artists in the States. Mulligan noted that EMI has a "weak US footprint." That's true. It's true mostly because it rarely puts out urban bestsellers and its rock/pop signings have not been the type of music that mainstream Americans want to hear. There have been a few recent success stories, though. Lately EMI has had success in America with KT Tunstall and Corrine Bailey Rae, but those have been exceptions. Lily Allen has become somewhat of a star, but mainly in Europe. As Universal Republic is about to reach platinum with its UK success story, Amy Winehouse, Allen's album is 125,000 short of gold status.

EMI new artist signings are curious. Its recent signings have been the talk of the town, but they're probably going to be mid-level successes. Critics love Interpol and The Decemberists, two new Capitol Music Group artists. Critically adored, yes, but little chance of multi-platinum sales. Consumers love mainstream fare like Nickelback, Carrie Underwood and the Pussycat Dolls, three of the biggest sellers of the last few years and three artists who are not signed to EMI labels.

In addition, EMI needs to make better use of its independent distribution. Its major-owned competitors have been better at cultivating underground hits and upstreaming artists. Getting more out of its indies could do as much for EMI's bottom line as a new digital initiative.

And what about EMI's digital strategy? Its move to drop DRM is popular with tech journalists and those consumers who know what DRM means. In the short term, the move won't add much to the bottom line. In the long term, its most likely impact will be to encourage new business models and enable new promotional partners. There isn't much of a first-mover advantage, however, since any of EMI's three competitors could drop DRM and be in the same boat almost overnight.

To suggest that EMI drop prices on digital albums is another curious bit of advice. First, are artists and their managers going to accept a lower wholesale price for new releases? While a lower price may or may not have an impact on sales, it would definitely mean lower royalties and a longer period to recoupment.

Digital albums already have a far lower wholesale cost than CDs. A standard digital album has a wholesale cost of about $7.00. The typical CD has a wholesale cost of around $12.00 (for a full list price CD). iTunes prices albums at $9.99. It has the right to price albums for less and make less margin, but it does not. Instead of sale prices, iTunes offers consumers albums with value-added features like bonus tracks. It's their choice. Best Buy, on the other hand, has a relatively lower sale price because (a) it gives itself a lower margin and (b) its takes coop marketing funds from labels. Amazon.com also works on slim margins and takes label coop marketing funds.

How much does price matter for iTunes purchases? The research I've seen says price ranks below convenience and selection for music download purchases. If labels were to drop their digital wholesale prices even more, I have serious doubts that the increase in sales would offset the loss from the price cut. It might help ticket sales and merchandise sales, but EMI has few contracts that capture a share of those streams.

In any case, this could be all academic. Terra Firma could break up EMI's publishing and recorded music divisions and the number of major recorded music groups could drop to three from four. Right now, EMI's best strategy is probably to join with a company that hasn't spent the last few years waiting to be purchased.

August 2, 2007

Thursday Business Links

• Album sales were down 2% last week and were 13% lower than the same week last year. For the year, album sales are down 14% (a number that is improving as the months pass). Digital track sales were up 1% last week and were 39% higher than the same week last year. For the year, digital track sales are up 48%.

• Terra Firma gained approval from 91.5% of EMI's shareholders and finally has control of the music group. (The Guardian)

• Virgin Entertainment Group North America posted a 15% comparable store increase last quarter. That's what shutting down underperforming stores will do for you. CEO Simon Wright says the chain's new-ish loyalty program has 150,000 members. The only thing I have to add about Virgin is that the Union Square store was practically a morgue when I walked in on an early Saturday afternoon a few weeks ago. (Billboard.biz)

• Douglas Wolk has an article on the inevitable Internet leak and how labels approach them. Its facts are almost correct, but I've heard from one label that Wolk got some of the details wrong. Doesn't change the main thrust of the article, though. I have a completely unproven theory that a leak does less damage the farther it is from the album's release date. When awareness of the leak comes near the album's release date, I think there is a convergence of awareness (album promotion plus leak hype) that is more detrimental to album sales. (Spin, via Idolator)

• PureTracks is the first Canadian retailer to offer EMI downloads in unprotected MP3 format. Even though the tracks will cost CDN $1.29, the press release does not indicate if the downloads have a higher sound quality than the standard DRM'd, WMA downloads. I really think it would be a mistake to raise the price and not raise the bit rate in tandem. (Press release)

• Epic signed Alkaline Trio. As Kings of A&R points out, major labels are attracted to bands that have done the dirty work and built up a following (not a make believe Internet following, mind you, but a real following based on years of touring and recording). There's less risk, less tour support and a better payoff at the end of the day. (Press release, via Kings of A&R)

• Good news for the concert business: The Eagles are planning to tour extensively in 2008. (Hollywood Reporter)

• Lots of articles have been written about iTunes reaching three billion downloads. All of them missed a few key points. First, iTunes is not just an American store. It has stores in many countries, and they all contributed to the sales of three billion. Sales have picked up as more iTunes store have launched. Second, it doesn't matter what profit Apple makes from iTunes (yes, there is a profit in there). The iPod would not be as successful without the iTunes store. They're a package deal. If you're going to look at profits of one, include the profit of the other.

• I'll be back in Nashville in two weeks and will have to check out the city's traffic lights that play country music. (The Tennessean)

July 25, 2007

Wednesday Business Links

• Album sales dropped 2% last week and were 9% lower than the same week last year. Year to date, album sales are down 14%. Sales of digital tracks rose 3% last year and were 52% higher than the same week last year. For the year, digital tracks are up 48%.

• Lenders could be jittery over Terra Firma's buyout of EMI. "It is understood that Citigroup, which is financing the acquisition of EMI by Guy Hands’s Terra Firma, has not given its approval to extend a key deadline for shareholders to vote on the deal." (Times Online)

• Joni Mitchell signed to Starbucks' Hear Music label, which will release her album Shine on September 25. I expect the media blitz surrounding her move to Hear Music will be beneficial to sales of the album, just as it was for Paul McCartney. The label's third of fourth gray-haired signing, though, should expect less attention. (Billboard.biz)

• I forgot to post this yesterday: The U.K. government does not want to extend copyright on sound recordings to 70 years from 50 years. The government followed the recommendation of Andrew Gowers given late last year. The BPI and other trade groups reacted by pledging to continue its campaign for the longer copyright. (Inquirer and Hollywood Reporter)

• XM president and CEO Hugh Panero will leave the company next month. COO Nate Davis will take over as interim CEO. In the event Sirius merges with XM, Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin will take over the reins of the combined company. (Radio Ink)

• The lineup for the Vegoose music festival was announced yesterday. It's an odd mish-mash of old (Public Enemy, Cypress Hill) and new (Ghostland Observatory, Battles). Rage Against the Machine, Daft Punk, Queens of the Stone Age and Muse headline. (Pollstar)

• Universal Music Publishing Group has signed Ric Ocasek to an exclusive publishing administration deal. Under the deal, UMPG will have world-wide administration and sync rights to Ocasek's catalog of hits. (Press release)

• CinemaNow, an online distributor of online movies, signed licensing agreements with Sanctuary, EMI and Sony BMG to offer music videos and concert performances. CinemaNow and WatchMusicHere.com will offer more than 6,000 videos. Music video downloads will be priced at $1.99 and concerts and long-form videos will go for $9.95 to $14.95, or $2.99 to $3.99 for rental in the WMV format. (Press release)

• Lee Gomes has an article on the industry's drive to expand royalties for music. "Most lay people surveying this terrain quickly conclude that it would be more efficient to have everyone involved in music creation, be they record labels or songwriters, aligned on one side and negotiating together, with the same occurring across the table with music users, be they radio stations or Web broadcasters. But there is little chance of that happening. The legal, financial and institutional interests all diverge." (Wall Street Journal)

July 23, 2007

Monday Business Links

• Terra Firm again extended its bid for EMI. It has just over a quarter of shareholders on board. (Wall Street Journal)

• The Recording Industry Association of Japan (RIAJ) released sales figures for the first half of 2007. CD sales were down 15% and the value of the sales were down only 7%. No data was released for digital download or mobile sales. (RIAJ, via Digital Music News)

• This week, Apple will start selling Spanish language iTunes gift cards. The prepaid download cards will first be sold in Best Buy and Target, then Wal-Mart and Safeway. (Brandweek)

• The U.K. Office of Fair Trading has cleared Universal Music Group's purchase of Sanctuary Group. (Billboard.biz)

• Jim DeRogatis on the demise of the print magazine Punk Planet. (Chicago Sun-Times)

• Newsweek interviewed Alexandra A. Seno, chairman of Decca Label Group, the classical division of Universal Music Group. The talk centered around how Decca has found success in the digital arena. Said Seno, "Universal Music’s classical labels have had a great deal of success using digital because it presents a new way for us to present classical music and the younger generation of artists." (Newsweek)

July 19, 2007

Thursday Business Links

Hallmark has launched its "Use Music Summer Tour." The seven-city tour coincides with the launch of 100 new Cards with Sound. In addition, the retail chain now offers iTunes gift cards at most of its stores. (Press release)

• The advocate general for the European Union of Justice said ISPs are not required to identify subscribers in civil copyright infringement cases. Promusicae, Spain's music trade group, had sued Spanish ISP Telefonica to force it to turn over information on subscribers suspected of sharing music via KaZaA. (Ars Technica)

• Blockbuster had its credit facility trimmed by $50 million and is thinking about reducing the footprint of some stores. (Video Business)

• What does Terra Firma have in mind for EMI? The Independent puts forth some good ideas. (The Independent)

• Universal Music Group chairman and CEO, Doug Morris, was elected to the board of directors of Columbia University's National Center on Addiction and Substance Abuse. Morris is a Columbia graduate. (Earth Times)

• The worst prediction of the week comes from Music Week editor Martin Talbor. On Prince's direct marketing campaign he told Time magazine, "If we keep moving down this particular route, companies will only release records that are sure home runs. That means either stuff by established artists or unknown artists doing cover versions. There is the danger that it will no longer be worth it for companies to invest in new, up-and-coming artists. And if record companies don't invest in them, who will." (Time)

• The British press is really eying the opening of a new Rough Trade store. BBC News has another article on the indie retailer's expansion plans. I suppose it is newsworthy given that the new store will have ten times the floor space of the old store, and this comes as so many have written off physical formats. Rough Trade believes the selling of music has been lost. "If anything, the people I talk to appreciate vinyl and CDs more than ever in this digital age. It's just that they've gone off the way it's sold. The High Street has, unfortunately, commoditised music. When you walk into a High Street record, or entertainment, store, it's about three-for-two and the price message is what hits you. And if you're interested in music, it's quite a demeaning, quite demoralising message to hit you." (BBC News)

July 18, 2007

Wednesday Business Links

• Album sales sank 5% last week and were 11% lower than the same week last year. For the year, album sales are down 15%. Digital track sales dropped 6% last week and were 44% higher than the same week last year. For the year, digital track sales are up 48%.

• According to research by Informa Telecoms & Media, Universal Music Group was tops in both physical and digital music in 2006. The company had 25.7% of the global market, up from 25.6% in 2005. Independents amounted to 27.5% of the total market. (Reuters)

• EMI Music Publishing and Universal Music Publishing have entered into a joint venture with music search engine One Llama and APM Music, which has "the world’s leading production music library." Try to get through the long-winded and wordy press release if you're feeling spry, but the bottom line here is that all parties are trying to facilitate and improve the process of finding the right music for a project. One Llamas is backed by illinoisVENTURES. (Press release)

• It's the year of the widget. ReverbNation has launched a Facebook widget called My Band that has a band's profile, picture, play statistics, songs (that can be shared) and tour schedule.

• The Independent previews James Blunt's upcoming court battle over the authorship of six tracks from his hit album. (The Independent)

• Yesterday's Soundcheck program on WNYC found guests Timothy English, author of "Sounds Like Teen Spirit," and Robert Clarida, an attorney who specializes in copyright issues, talking about the lawsuit against Avril Lavigne and other moments in music copyright history. In my opinion, Lavigne's song "Boyfriend" bears little resemblance to The Rubinoos' "I Wanna Be Your Boyfriend." There's an obvious Stones riff ("Hey! You!") in the Rubinoos' song, though. Check out this YouTube video that lays "I Wanna Be Your Boyfriend" over the video for "Girlfriend." (Soundcheck)

• SESAC, the performance rights organization, and MySpace have reached a deal that will pay SESAC members for streams at the popular social networking site. The deal does not cover songs uploaded to an artist's MySpace page. (Press release)

• A Bear Stearns analyst predicts the FCC will approve a merger of XM and Sirius. "We believe the merger likely will be approved on merits. ... We underscore though, if political forces are more powerful than the merits of the deal, the outcome may be different. However, our sense is that the deal will be judged on merits and is therefore likely to pass." (Radio Ink)

July 17, 2007

Tuesday Business Links

• If you want to bid on EMI, you have until this Thursday to put in a bid. (Reuters)

• An interview with Barnes & Noble Borders chief executive George Jones, who has aggressive digital strategies that include in-store downloading. "There are tons of people 35 and older who don't own an MP3 player, or if they have one, they don't know how to operate it. These are people who just won't take the time to learn how to do it. I'm like that myself. I love music, but I don't download music onto my iPod. We think there is a place for a retailer to offer a comfortable environment that offers guidance and the opportunity to discover products that provide knowledge and entertainment. We'll show you. Bring in your MP3 player and let us know what you want. We'll download it for you." He speaks a bit more about music later. Check it out. (Wall Street Journal)

• Starting Wednesday, Starbucks will offer exclusive EPs in a branded section of the iTunes music store. Rissi Palmer, Alice Russell and WinterKids will receive airplay in Starbucks locations as well as placement at the iTunes page. (Digital Music News)

• S-Curve Records will be re-launched by founder and CEO Steve Greenberg. To fit with the times, the label will branch out to publishing and artist management. Greenberg stepped down as Columbia Records' president in June of last year. (Billboard.biz)

• Microsoft's Zune portable media player will be on show at Live Nation venues around the country. Zune Spots, held in converted freight containers, will allow concert goers to try the Zune device. Consumers can also win a trip to see a band at a Live Nation venue through the Zune Zoom Away competition. If you're looking for a signal about Microsoft's commitment to the Zune's development, I think a series of converted freight containers is a good place to start. (Press release)

• Sony BMG and Dada have launched a joint venture called Dada Entertainment. The venture will offer "direct-to-consumer entertainment services with integrated mobile and web offerings." I wish I had an example of what that means exactly. (Press release)

• Nominees for the Mercury Prize were announced this morning. On the list are Jamie T, Arctic Monkeys, Bat for Lashes, Klaxons, Fionn Regan, Amy Winehouse, The View, Dizzee Rascal, Maps and Basuiat Strings. (XFM)

July 13, 2007

Friday Business Links

• Private equity firm Terra Firma has extended its deadline for its offer for EMI again, this time for one week. (BBC News)

• Universal Music Group has extended to July 26th its offer to buy the Sanctuary Group. UMG has offered $87.7 million. Last month news broke that investment bank Crosby Capital Partners was preparing a bid for Sanctuary, but the firm has not yet made an official bid. (Billboard.biz)

• Microsoft has applied for a patent titled "Off-line Economies for Digital Media" that is system for paying a commission to Zune owners for sharing music. Owners would be paid only if the other user who received the song purchased it at the Zune Marketplace. (ZuneScene, via Engadet)

• Music retail legend Music Millennium in Portland, OR is going to close down one of its two stores after 30 years. The combination of declining music sales and increasing rents was too much for owner Terry Currier. Since last August, the store has lost $93,000. (The Oregonian)

• Michael Geist, professor Law and columnist, helped create a video that aims to show how the media's reporting of piracy has helped lead to movie piracy legislation and two government committees that seek tougher action on piracy. The movie addresses claims of music piracy made by the CRIA with statistics and info on Canada's music market. Not all of Geist's rebuttals actually rebut the often-made claims. Rather, they try to present a more balanced view. The video is almost nine minutes long, spend some time with it if you can. (Michael Geist)

• Inside Digital Media has an podcast interview with Jim Burger, an attorney who discusses the recent WIPO meeting and the issue of fair use of acquired media in home networks. (Inside Digital Media)

July 12, 2007

Thursday Business Links

• The European Commission cleared Terra Firma's takeover bid of EMI. Today is the last day of Terra Firma's extended bid period. (Dow Jones)

• The rootkit is back in the news. Sony BMG has sued The Amergence Group (formerly SunnComm), the maker of the anti-piracy technology included in Sony BMG CDs that resulted in public outcry, lawsuits and government investigations. (AP)

• Senator Russ Feingold is checking in with the radio industry to make sure they're complying with the FCC's directive to enforce the ban on payola practices. He sent a letter to executives at Clear Channel, CBS Radio, Citadel and Entercom that asked for information on access the companies have given to artists and labels. "Have you taken any efforts to increase the amount of access provided and to facilitate submissions?" he asked. (Billboard.biz)

• The Wall Street Journal's Sarah McBride has an article on radio stations' analysis of P2P traffic to help create playlists. Clear Channel's Premiere Radio Networks has a venture with BigChampagne that offers traffic data to radio stations. She tells the story of Shop Boyz' "Party Like A Rockstar," which was big with file sharers but wasn't getting requests. Eventually, the requests started to roll in -- especially in text messages from mobile phones -- and track downloads increased as well. (Wall Street Journal)

• Fox and the production company behind "Laguna Beach" and "The Hills" are planning a reality TV series called "Nashville" that will follow musicians trying to make it in Music City. The show will feature Sony BMG artists Chuck Wicks, Matt Jenkins and Mika Combs. (Music Row)

• Just as Kelly Clarkson's My December album dropped 60% in its second week, rumor is that RCA pulled Clarkson's summer TV and print campaigns and are focusing on the upcoming Carrie Underwood album. (Kings of A&R)

• Swiss consumers will have to pay a tax on digital music players and some types of A/V recorders. (SwissInfo)

• Napster unlimited over-the-air download service launched with NTT DoCoMo in Japan. The service is integrated with the PC-based Napster To Go service. Here's a new twist for Napster: Customers have the option of paying for Napster through their DoCoMo bill. Whether or not mobile subscription services will take off is still up in the air, but these are positive steps. I like the billing option a lot. (No link to press release yet.)

• EMI and management company Union Entertainment Group have formed a joint venture record label called Audionest. The label will be distributed by Caroline. UEG manages rock bands Nickelback, Default and Candlebox. (Billboard.biz)

July 10, 2007

EMI Math: Graph Of A Digital Sales Increase

EMI.JPG

One month after iTunes Plus introduced the country to unprotected EMI downloads, there is some proof that the change has been beneficial to EMI's digital shares. It is harder too tell, though, what impact the company's digital strategy has had on its overall market share (probably little to none).

The above graph shows cumulative, year-to-date market shares at the end of each month for EMI's digital, CD and overall album sales. Each of the first six months of the year is represented in the graph. Digital is in blue, CD is in red, overall is in white.

To account for the strength of its release schedule, which by itself could increase or decrease the company's market share, we have to look at how EMI's digital market share moved in relation to its CD market share.

Market shares actually peaked in February, which coincides with the release of Norah Jones' Not Too Late. The actual market share, though, is not what's important in this case. The impact of selling DRM-free downloads -- and the impact of iTunes Plus -- can be seen in the difference between CD and digital market shares. The difference between the blue (digital) and red (CD) lines decreased and is almost zero in June. The ground digital made up in June represents the increase in digital market share due to iTunes Plus.

In June, EMI's year-to-date digital album share rose 1.4% while its year-to-date CD market share dropped 3%. Because digital rose while CD dropped we can tell that iTunes Plus had an impact on EMI's digital sales.

July 5, 2007

Billboard Does Korn/EMI Math

Billboard (the print version only) offered details of Korn's two-album, revenue-sharing deal with EMI (the article is republished at Korn Underground, via from Blabbermouth). EMI purchased a 30% stake in Korn's revenues (touring, merch, recorded music, etc) for $25 million. The deal goes through 2010.

"To date, Billboard projects it has generated around $15 million on the sales of 'See You on the Other Side' (based on worldwide sales of about 2 million units and estimating a net of about $7.75 per album after manufacturing and distribution costs, based on an $11.45 wholesale price).

The band has also pulled an estimated $4 million after fees from additional sales of digital downloads, ringtones and the 'Unplugged' album. On top of that it has netted a projected $7 million-plus after expenses in touring-related revenue from the 2006 Family Values Tour and a 20-date U.S. theatre tour and selected European dates that grossed more than $11 million in box-office receipts.

Tour sponsorships and merch pulled in another estimated $2.2 million. That leaves the band still needing to earn another $20 million-$30 million in profits by 2010."

Thursday Business Links

• Only 3.6% of EMI investors accepted Terra Firma's $4.8 billion bid, which led Terra Firm to extend the offer to July 12. (Bloomberg)

• Overall sales were down 1% last week and were 8% below the same week last year. For the year album sales are down 15%. Sales of digital tracks were also down 1% last week, and were 40% ahead of the same week last year. Year to date, sales of digital tracks are up 49%.

• Clive's fears came true: Hannah Montana topped Kelly Clarkson last week. Montana debuted with 326,000 while Clarkson's My December debuted with 291,000.

• A Belgian court has ruled that Internet Service Providers must use the technical means available to stop illegal file-sharing on their networks. The IFPI is, of course, thrilled. (Press release)

• Sony BMG is trying to renegotiate the terms of its music publishing joint venture with Michael Jackson that will allow it to sign songwriters. The current terms of Sony/ATV does not allow Sony to sign competing songwriters. Talks are reportedly at an early stage. (Times Online)

David Cameron, leader of the Conservative Party, has a deal for the British music industry: Stop with the misogyny, guns and materialism and he will support an extension of copyright to 70 years from 50 years. (Times Online)

• Edna Gundersen writes about Live Earth and "benefit fatigue" that could limit its effectiveness. My fear is that people move on," said Grammy producer Ken Ehrlich. The Pet Shop Boys' Neil Tennant worried about "the idea of rock stars lecturing people as if they know something the rest of us don't." (USA Today)

June 29, 2007

EMI To Sell DRM-Free Downloads Through Snocap. Album Option Later This Year.

With EMI's deal to sell high quality, DRM-free MP3s through Snocap (read press release), downloads have become untethered from online retail. EMI artists have Snocap widgets on the artist websites, and Blue Note has a widget on its page. Tracks will cost $1.30 apiece, in line with prices for similar files at iTunes.

What has been overlooked so far is, to me, one of the biggest parts of the announcement: Albums will be made available through Snocap "later this year." To date, Snocap has sold only individual tracks. It has not been a cost-effective source for EPs or albums. Cherry picking at $1.30 per track is a fair deal, but a typical ten-track album would cost $13.00 through Snocap (outside of the country genre, most albums have more than ten tracks). If EMI prices its DRM-free albums the same as at iTunes, that would be $10.00-- an amount that covers almost seven a la carte tracks purchased at $1.30 each.

One problem I see is some artists' Snocap widget do not give any details on the file format or sound quality. It's basic information that should be readily visible. Not all Snocap-enabled downloads are MP3. People will want to know if the format is WMA.

And How Is Dark Side of the Moon Doing?

My post on EMI's digital sales in its DRM-free era has attracted a lot of attention. When I saw that Jupiter's Mark Mulligan referenced the stats I posted (he incorrectly assumed those stats were put out by EMI), I figured it was time to put a needle in everybody's balloon. I worry, though, that the tech media will not cover the following statistics with the same fervor with which they reported the data in my first post.

Allow me to preface the following comments by saying not enough time has passed to make a proper judgment on the effectiveness of EMI's decision to drop DRM from digital downloads. It is a long term strategy that requires a proper time period for reflection. Even so, people want to draw some kind of conclusion as soon as possible, so I'll share with you some information.

If you look just at digital sales of Pink Floyd's Dark Side of the Moon, which have somehow become the standard bearer for EMI's recent digital strategy, one would have a difficult time believing the strategy is clearly working.

Digital sales of Dark Side of the Moon dropped 14% last week, which followed drops of 33% and 42%. Before dropping 42%, digital sales rose 350%. That was the week iTunes Plus launched and allowed people to upgrade to the DRM-free versions for an additional $0.30 per track. Word is that SoundScan does not count those upgrades as sales, but I am very skeptical. I suppose the peak could have been explained by consumers' lust for DRM-free music, but that demand should have lasted more than one week, right?

A one-week peak fits in with a scenario in which the most avid iTunes users upgraded to iTunes Plus as soon as it was available and then upgraded their EMI downloads. (Some did it just to experiment. Some were journalists and bloggers writing about the new technology. Some actually wanted to DRM-free music.) In the following weeks, incrementally fewer iTunes users have upgraded to the new version of iTunes and in turn upgraded their EMI downloads. What happens when iTunes Plus adoption levels off? Dark Side of the Moon digital sales will level off.

Everybody has focused on the 350% increase but has ignored what has happened since. Dark Side of the Moon's inital sales are still almost double what they were before iTunes Plus launched, but they're dropping like a rock.

Once again, more time is needed before drawing any good conclusions.

June 28, 2007

Thursday Business Links

• Terra Firma, the private equity firm that has placed a bid on EMI, is reportedly going to extend its deadline by which investors must accept its offer. The bid stands at $4.79 billion. (Reuters)

• Those DRM-free EMI downloads with user information embedded within? Privatunes has free software that will render those files anonymous. (Privatunes , via Slashdot)

• Guitar Center has agreed to be acquired by Bain Capital Partners for about $1.9 billion. The music equipment retailer's sales have nearly doubled in the last four five years. Net income rose from 2002 to 2005 and dropped in 2006 only because of an extraordinary charge related to a goodwill impairment. (Billboard.biz)

• Digital Music Group has inked distribution deals with Mush Records, Joyful Noise Recordings and Clockwize Online. (Press release)

• Ringtone sales are flat. Said one executive, "I think the ringtone business is in peril now because the operators have allowed into the market mobile phones which can sideload MP3s and use them as ringtones." What to do about it? "...innovative products are being introduced: EMI, for instance, has just unveiled a remixable realtone for the hip hop artist MIMS, while independent labels such as Ninja Tune are using them as freebie promotional tools. What is certain is that prices cannot remain static. And as with moves to incorporate VoIP services and flat-rate data charges, it is innovation that will move the market forward, rather than the protection of any perceived golden goose." (The Guardian)

• paidContent just posted a video segment of a panel discussion on social media and the music industry that was recorded at its EconSM Conference in late April. On the panel are Josh Deutsch (CEO, Downtown Records), Courtney Holt (EVP, Digital Music and Media, MTV), and Hadi Partovi (President and COO, iLike). (paidContent)

• Merrill Lynch loves Sirius whether or not it hooks up with XM: "We continue to believe the shares have upside potential using our reasonable, and often conservative, assumptions, including: 1) 80-85% of long-term gross adds are from auto 2) declining ARPU (ignores data impact), 3) combined 40mm subscribers in 2014 – comments by both Sirius and XM suggest this level in 2010, and 4) annual FCF exceeds $1bb in 2016." (Radio Ink)

• British music retailer HMV posted a slightly lower annual profit and announced a DRM-free download store that will launch in September. EMI is the only major on board for the download store. (Billboard.biz)

• The question of the '00's: To give away or not to give away? David at Digital Audio Insider lists his pros and cons of giving away his band's upcoming album. "If we're primarily doing all of this for the enjoyment of the creative process -- and we're not making much money from it -- would we be better off giving the music away?"(Digital Audio Insider)

June 21, 2007

Follow-Up On EMI Sales: A Mixed Bag

Here's a follow-up to my post earlier this week that found its way into the online media...people are obviously interested in EMI's digital sales since its digital downloads become available without DRM.

Digital sales Pink Floyd's Dark Side of the Moon dropped 33% last week (CD sales rose 26%) and are 61% below the high mark from the week iTunes Plus was launched. Digital sales of Norah Jones' Come Away With Me, which jumped 62% the week iTunes Plus launched, has been all over the place, dropping 23% and then rising 51% last week (CD sales kept pace with a 54% increase).

Coldplay's A Rush Of Blood To The Head saw its digital sales jump 170% when iTunes Plus launched. Two weeks ago it rose 1% (CD dropped 5%) and last week sales fell 21% (CD rose 11%). OK Go's Oh No, up 173% three weeks ago, rose 3% two weeks ago (CD rose 4%) and dropped 7% last week (CD rose 33%) -- pretty much steady since iTunes Plus launched.

What to think of these numbers? It's very difficult to draw a conclusion given the short term and the natural volatility of some titles. It's clear that digital sales for some titles peaked in the week of the iTunes Plus launch. The coming weeks will offer a clearer picture of any real impact on digital sales. Hopefully the data will indicate whether or not EMI's DRM policy is the cause behind the fluctuations. I predict that no material, across-the-board change in sales will be seen until Amazon.com's digital download store launches. That will definitely move the neede.

June 18, 2007

Monday Business Links

• Investment bank Crosby Capital Partners is preparing a counterbid for Sanctuary Music Group. Last week Sanctuary accepted a takeover bid from Universal Music Group. (The Guardian)

• In a victory over rival format HD DVD, Blockbuster said it will favor Blu-Ray DH discs. (Reuters)

• Paul McCartney's new album sold 161,000 copies in its first week of release. Over 60% of those sales came from "non-traditional" stores, which includes download stores (iTunes, eMusic), online CD sellers (Amazon.com) and non-traditional brick-and-mortar retail (Starbucks). Since digital accounted for only 10% of sales, the bulk -- roughly 81,000 units -- of the non-traditional number can be attributed to Starbucks sales. (Pop Machine Blog, via Digital Audio Insider)

• How much did ousted EMI Music chief Alain Levy get on his way out the door? £4.6 million (US$9.09 million). (The Guardian)

• David Ring has been named EVP of business development and business affairs for Universal Music Group's eLabs, the division that handles the company's online and mobile sales as well as new media opportunities. (Variety)

• A profile on Belgian label Crammed Discs, home of Bebel Gilberto, Cibelle, Kocani Orkestar and Konono No. 1. (AP)

June 11, 2007

Monday Business Links

• Tower Records founder Russ Solomon is readying R5 Records in Sacramento for a soft launch in the next few weeks. "There are things that need to be tried. And since I was preaching against a wall the last two years that what Tower was doing and what the industry was doing was misdirected and wrong, I owe it to myself and to the business to do it my way." (Sacramento Bee)

• Digital sales in India are higher than physical sales, a first in the world according to the article. Soundbuzz predicts that by 2009 Indian consumers will purchase nine times more mobile music (in terms of revenue) than any other format. (Deccan Herald)

• Here's an article about EMI's and Sanctuary's difficulties selling British music in America. Seems this article would have had better timing before KT Tunstall, Lily Allen and Corrine Baily Rae, but whatever. Here are some good stats from the article: U.K. artists accounted for 8.2% of U.S. album sales in 2006, up from 7.6% in 2004. That figure was 32% in 1986 and less than 1% in 1999. (International Herald Tribune)

• A profile on Integral, a UK company that offers marketing and financial assistance to independent labels and rights holders. (The Independent)

• Hollywood is getting more frustrated with YouTube and its continued level of infringing material. "Clearly, this is not a resource constraint," said one executive. "This is a function of will." (News.com)

June 1, 2007

Friday Business Links

• Navarre finalized the sale of its independent music distribution segment to Koch yesterday. Navarre received $6.5 million at closing and plans to collect $11 million from trade receivables that were not part of the transaction. The company plans to use the proceeds to pay down its credit facility. (Press release)

• EMI had agreed to give YouTube users access to its videos and music and use the content in their own user-generated content. EMI will use YouTube's management tools to track and monetize the content. EMI is the last of the four majors to come to an agreement with YouTube. (Press release)

• Ad-supported P2P (sort of) site SpiralFrog is set to launch by the end of the summer, according to company chairman and founder Joe Mohen. SpiralFrog has been in a period of upheaval with the exit of executives and directors. One bright spot: the company is currently in beta testing in Canada. (Billboard.biz)

• David at Digital Audio Insider went through his latest eMusic statement and blogged about the payout increase. His band's per-song payout rose 11.3% since eMusic recently increased its payout rates. (Digital Audio Insider)

• You don't hear about retailers seeing sales of iPods and related accessories, but Sharper Image reported sales of both were instrumental in the company's 21.5% drop in revenues for fiscal 2006. (10-K)

• Industry legend Alan McGee is reportedly winding down his Poptones record label because he thinks bands should release music themselves and developing new acts is not economically feasible. "New groups will have to develop themselves," he said. (Digital Spy)

PaidContent has an audio interview with RealNetworks' Rob Glaser. (Download MP3 or stream at this page)

• Perhaps inspired by Al Gore, the IFPI posted a list of "ten inconvenient truths about the music industry today," which includes blasts against Pirate Bay, Allofmp3.com, organized crime, file sharers and ISPs that "facilitate the illegal swapping on copyright infringing music on a grand scale." (IFPI)

May 30, 2007

iTunes Offers Unprotected Downloads

iTunes US started offering unprotected AAC files today for EMI artist downloads. iTunes Plus offers what EMI calls premium downloads. Engadget runs us through the new store and gives a step-by-step of the simple process of upgrading your EMI purchases.

May 25, 2007

Friday Business Links

• Vivendi, parent company of Universal Music Group, will reportedly launch a paid content portal to sell music, videos and mobile content. Given labels' past history with these sorts of endeavors, I don't think this will be successful. Entertainment groups fare better when they let others sell to consumers. I can see bands carving out some space for themselves with direct-to-consumer relationships, and niche-fulfilling indie labels can pull it off on a small scale, but not this. (Reuters)

• A Greenfield Online Fact of the Week survey showed that 64% of online respondents still get their music by purchasing CDs. (mi2n)

• Contrary to its initiatives elsewhere, EMI is reportedly selling protected MP3 files in Russia through Soundkey.ru. (WebPlanet)

PayPlay.fm will start selling its 1.3 million-deep catalog in unprotected MP3 format by the end of this month. MP3 files will cost $0.88 while WMA files cost $0.77. You won't find many popular acts there, but a few searches revealed some local (to Nashville) names such as Justin Earle. (Listening Post)

• Muzak and DMX, a design firm, want to merge and then be acquired by a third company. The Department of Justice has a few questions about the transaction's effect on competition. (Bizjournals)

• Music-heavy social media site Buzznet laned $6 million in funding. (paidContent)

• A report says some (Don) "Ienner loyalists" have left Sony BMG recently, including SVP of marketing, Barbara Jones. (Digital Music News)

• The IFPI has pointed to research by Italy's Luigi Einaudi Foundation that shows how file-sharing reduces consumers' physical music purchases. While 30% of file sharers surveyed say they purchase fewer CDs, 6% say they purchase more. The press release does not mention any increase in digital purchases, which makes it look pretty one sided. If you can read Italian, view the report here (file is about 9MB). (Press release)

May 24, 2007

Thursday Business Links

• The New York Post reported former EMI exec Jim Fifield is still working on a deal to buy the company despite his backer, Corvus Capital, pulling out. Fifield, the article said, wants to run the recorded music division and sell the music publishing division to record exec Charles Koppelman and private equity firm GTCR Golder Rauner. (New York Post)

• IFPI scare tactics are working. Ars Technica finds that some sellers of allofmp3.com gift certificates are getting out of the business after one London-based seller was arrested. (Ars Technica, via Billboard.biz)

• Ad-supported online music service Ruckus, the most miserable music service I have ever seen, has landed $10 million in funding. Well...it obviously needs it. (Reuters)

• Downloads are hurting the venerable CD single in the UK. Supermarket chain ASDA, one of the top music sellers in Britain, is going to stop selling CD singles. (Related: Handleman UK and ASDA have terminated their music supply agreement.) At the same time, indie stores are seeing a resurgance in the 7" vinyl single. Said one indie retailer, "We find customers like to have a more aesthetically pleasing physical product as a collectable item, rather than a throw away mass-produced CD single." (Manchester Evening News)

May 23, 2007

Report: Warner Music Group Still In The Hunt

The Financial Times reported today that Warner Music Group is just now starting its due diligence and is in talks with private equity groups, including Terra Firma, about acquiring EMI's recorded music division once EMI's sale is complete.

Some believe WMG's efforts to acquire EMI are being hampered by the EU's decision to take another look at the Sony BMG merger. A sale to Terra Firma would give cash to EMI shareholders in a short period of time while a sale to WMG could result in uncertain regulatory scrutiny.

Just yesterday, the EU approved the sale of BMG Music Publishing to Universal Music Group. UMG agreed to rid itself of some publishing assets to help gain approval. Similarly, WMG might be better off waiting to buy just a piece of EMI from a private equity firm.

May 21, 2007

EMI Reports Fiscal Year Results

On the same day it announced a winning takeover bid, EMI announced its results for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2007. Revenue dropped 15.8% (12.1% on constant currency) and a £118.1 million gain in fiscal 2006 turned into a £263.3 million loss in 2007.

Included in operating profit are an exceptional gain of £50.2 million (sale and leasebacks of offices in Tokyo and Los Angeles, plus Bertelsmann settlement money) and an exceptional costs of £191.5 million (restructuring charges) and £164 million (balance sheet review).

Key items:

• Total cash from operations was a paltry £7.3 million (versus £188.3 million last year).
• Gross margin dropped to 34.9% from 37.2%.
• EMI has suspended dividend payments (this was announced on April 18th) and an interim dividend of 2p per share has been paid.
• Recorded music sales dropped by 15%. Digital represented 10.4% of recorded music and 9.4% of total company revenues.
• By region: North American dropped 7.7% (digital up 80.1%); UK & Ireland dropped 11.8% (digital up 79.7%); and Japan dropped 2.4% (digital up 69%).
• Publishing operating profits increased 4.2% (at constant currency) while revenue, dragged down by lower physical sales, dipped 0.9%.
• Publishing revenues related to digital music increased 35.5%, although "growth in digital revenues in music publishing continues to lag the recorded music industry."
• Performance revenue increased by 10.1% and synchronization revenue increased 5.6%.
• EMI's interest coverage ratio dropped to 1.9 as EBITDA decreased to £174 million from £275.8 million.

Conclusion: Extraordinary events killed operating profit and restructuring charges were a big hit to cash flows from operations. Publishing shows potential and is the company's current strength. Sync and performance revenues are up. Digital revenues are up big. The problem remains: Nothing can overcome the drop in revenue from falling CD sales. EMI was smart to begin a restructuring program, but it came too late. Chalk that one up to the slow-to-react leadership of the Munns/Levy era.

EMI Accepts Private Equity Bid

This morning it was reported that EMI has accepted a bid by private equity firm Terra Firma Capital Partners Ltd. EMI, which had recently opened its books to Warner Music Group and had received interest from a number of private equity firms, said Terra Firma's bid of $4.7 billion was the best of the proposals it has received. Said EMI chairman John Gildersleeve in a statement:

"The global music industry is undergoing significant change and, whilst EMI is confident in its ability to deliver its recently announced restructuring plans, significant uncertainty exists as to the timing and extent of future market developments. Terra Firma's offer is the most attractive proposal received and delivers cash now, without regulatory uncertainty and with the minimum of operational risk to the company."

Terra Firma's CEO had the following to say:

"Terra Firma's objective is to build on EMI's current position as one of the world's leading music companies and accelerate the development of its digital and online strategy to fully exploit this long-term growth opportunity."

So EMI put a greater value on regulatory certainty and lower operational risk (read: a merger with WMG could result in conflicting styles and loyalties) and less value on synergies and their resulting cost savings from a WMG acquisition. Both portend significant changes: Cut and merged divisions, layoffs and increased emphasis on digital.

May 19, 2007

Warner Prepared To Offer Better Deal For EMI

The Times Online reported today Warner Music Group is prepared to up its bid by £100 million ($197 million).

"The size of the payment reflects the confidence of Edgar Bronfman, Warner’s chairman, that a £4.6 billion merger with EMI will now be approved by competition regulators. He is prepared to offer investors a financial inducement to weaken EMI’s argument that they should accept a lower offer from private equity."

Just yesterday, The Times Online reported that WMG would be "unlikely" to increase its previous bid of 260p per share. That article claimed WMG had emerged as the most likely winner of the four companies interested in EMI (WMG and three private equity groups).

In recent weeks, there have been reports that the EU would probably approve a WMG acquistion of EMI. What I'm wondering is what this would do to EMI's foray into sales of unprotected downloads. WMG and the other majors do not see eye to eye (or say they say publicly) with EMI on the matter of DRM.

May 18, 2007

Friday Business Links

• EMI has opened a data room at an investment back and has asked bidders to submit offers by May 23rd. It is said that EMI chairman John Gildersleeve is running the process while Deutsche Bank and Citigroup are advising EMI Group head Eric Nicoli. (New York Post)

• All those efforst to prop of the value of music and now this: Coke joins with iTunes to give away two billion songs in Europe. (Billboard.biz)

• Hypebot claims to have information on Amazon.com's digital track pricing structure: Full albums for $4.99 to $8.99 and tracks from $0.89 to $0.99. iTunes has sub-$9.99 albums but they're hard to find. It would be nice if Amazon.com breaks out digital albums by price as it does with bargain CDs. Even better would be sale pricing, something iTunes does not have. (Hypebot)

The National Post has perhaps the worst take on Canda's 35% drop in CD sales: "The recording industry itself is to blame for this trend, because it imposes harsh copy protection rules on the sale of digital music." Yeah, that and about 106 other reasons, most of which relate to changing ways of listening to music. Journalists often miss the point, but usually not that badly. (The National Post)

May 16, 2007

Amazon.com To Sell MP3 Downloads. EMI To Sell MP3s in Europe

There are three big announcements today that relate to DRM-free downloads. For a change, there will be some optimism in the air (for a day or two) about the future of recorded music....not that I expect the other three majors to hurt themselves in a mad scramble to follow suit, but it's good to see EMI giving it a shot.

Amazon.com ended months of speculation and announced today it launch a music download store that will sell unprotected MP3 downloads. The store, to launch later this year, will offer more than 12,000 record labels, but only one major, EMI. No details were given on pricing. EMI already announced a deal with Apple that will offer DRM-free downloads at $1.29, a $0.30-cent-per-track premium over the cost for a protected AAC download.

EMI also had two other related announcements today. In France, VirginMega will sell EMI tracks as DRM-free, higher-quality downloads. The downloads will be 320kbps MP3 files; the existing format will also be available.

And In Scandanavia, EMI has an agreement with multiple online and mobile operators to sell premium, DRM-free downloads in the coming months. The deal covers more than 20 stores and will push bits rates "up to CD quality."

May 15, 2007

A Rejected Merger

Fox News' Roger Friedman has some info about a 2004 failed attempt to merger Warner Music Group and EMI. (read article here, scroll down.) The details have surfaced as exhibits in a lawsuit brought against WMG's Edgar Bronfman by Richard Snyder. Documents offer insight on a proposal for WMG's recorded music group and part of its publishing group. That letter, sent by EMI chairman Eric Nicoli on Feb 9, 2004, was sent to WMG and Scott Sperling of Thomas H. Lee Partners, the firm that financed Bronfman's acquisition of WMG from Time Warner.

Nicoli proposed a merger with WMG for $1.6 billion in cash and a structure with Bronfman as CEO of the "enlarged EMI group," Alain Levy as CEO of the music group and Martin Bandier as the CEO of the publishing group.

The thrust of the article is a belief that this merger should have gone through and that Bronfman missed a golden opportunity to save the industry. His opinion should not be taken too seriously; Friedman is not a business writer or analyst. He is a connected, gossipy entertainment journalist. ("There might be a record business now," he confidently wrote at the beginning of the piece.) "It's that simple," wrote Friedman. "All Nicoli asks is that his EMI executives remain in place through the new company." That simple? Maybe Friedman should look at the Sony BMG culture wars as a case study of muddy executive leadership when entertainment companies on opposite sides of the Atlantic merge.

Tuesday Business Links

• After months (or was it weeks?) if speculation and rumors, Rick Rubin has officially joined Columbia Records as an (as-yet-unnamed) executive. Rubin takes with him his American Recordings label (previously with Warner Music Group). This marks the most exciting development at Sony BMG in a while, though there are no details yet on the "new model for the music business of the future" that will come with Rubin's arrival. (Billboard.biz)

• According to Berg Insight, digital sales will overtake physical sales in Western Europe in 2011 and the European music market will revert back to growth in 2008. The key to the 6.5% compounded annual growth rate will be mobile handsets. "We expect that the handset is going to become the primary portable listening device. Once consumers are provided with unhindered mobile Internet access, these devices will increasingly be utilised for accessing online music content." I don't doubt the mobile device could become the primary listening device, but I'm skeptical that as a purchase driver it will do better than MP3 players have done when tethered to personal computers. Mobile stores and services must improve greatly. (Press release)

• An article on the publishing assets just purchased from Dimensional Associates by Colonial First State. Said the CFS head of strategy and development, "It will be a high-yield fund that will appeal to investors with their eye on longer-term, low-volatility assets, that offer growth on the upside." (Herald Sun)

• Mike Oldfield is criticizing EMI for "devaluing" his classic album Tubular Bells by using at part of a newspaper giveaway. (Contact Music)

• MTV Networks will license a social networking media player that was created by Georgia Tech students for MTV's Digital Incubator program. (Press release, via paidContent)

May 14, 2007

Monday Business Links

• According to The Telegraph, two American hedge funds, Fortress and Cerberus, are planning to jointly bid on EMI at a price below the $4.1 million Warner Music Group bid earlier this year. They hope EMI will accept a sub-WMG bid because of the lower level of regulatory scrutiny they expect to come with their bids. The report says One Equity is still looking at EMI but will not join the bid with Fortress and Ceberus. Permira is unlikely to join in the bidding. (The Telegraph)

• Sony BMG, which recently rid itself of its BMG music publishing arm, plans to get back into the music publishing game. Said chief executive Rolf Schmidt-Holtz, "We will do everything to re-enter the market for music publishing. ... Our shareholders see that a music company that has a music publishing business is more attractive" And why not? The revenue is far more less volatile and risky than that in the recorded music world. (Financial Times)

• The price for a non-DRM track at the New Zealand iTunes store will carry a 39% premium. A DRM track costs NZ$1.79 and a non-DRM track will carry a NZ$2.49 price tag. The U.S. iTunes store will charge only a 30% premium for the non-DRM version. (PC World NZ)

• The New York Post has a decent article on how labels are looking to ad-supported business models. Nothing new there, but at least some execs went on the record with their thoughts. (New York Post)

• Warner Music Group has signed a worldwide publishing deal with Destiny's Child member LeToya that covers her 2006 self-titled album and future compositions. (Press release)

• Vickie Winans' Destiny Joy Records has signed a distribution deal with Central South Distribution. (BreatheCast)

May 8, 2007

Tuesday Business Links

• Digital Music News reported the names of some Warner Music execs who have or will leave their posts: Nikke Slight, Atlantic SVP of New Media, and Robin Bechtel, head of new media at Warner Bros. Records. Those departures have led to the entry of Jack Isquith, formerly with AOL Music. Isquith will report directly to Warner Bros. chief executive Tom Whalley. (Digital Music News)

• PassAlong Networks announced version 2.0 of freedomMP3. The new version adds track-based rules that allow rightsholders to predetermine how many times the song can be moved off a PC. (Press release)

• EMI Music UK announced a strategic partnership with TLC Marketing to launch a download royalty card that will be used in third-party promotions. TLC has brand partnerships with Samsung, First Direct and British Gas. The promotion will allow consumers to download songs from an EMI owned and branded website. (Creative Match)

• With every concert ticket purchased online, Ticketmaster is giving away a free, ten-song digital sampler. Between Memorial Day and Labor Day, each ticket purchased will get one free download at iTunes. (Press release)

• A report by eMarketer finds that the music industry as a whole is "healthy" and "growth in many other areas will more than make up for the shortfall" in falling CD sales. Growth in music publishing and live music will help the industry grow at an average annual rate of 2.8% through 2011. (Press release)

• Guitar Center announced its Q1 2007 results. Net sales increased 13.5% to $534.5 million and earnings rose to $17.2 million. The company opened 12 new stores during the quarter, one being the result of an acquisition of the former Victor's House of Music in Paramus, New Jersey. (Press release)

May 7, 2007

Monday Business Links

• Billboard's Ed Christman reported today that Warner Music Group is planning to lay off 400 employees. The restructure includes staggered layoffs and additional hires in digital areas. (Billboard.biz)

• According to the Financial Times, EMI has interest from three private equity groups: Fortress, Cerberus and the previously mentioned One Equity. All three are expected to make presentations to EMI's board of directors this week. EMI will reportedly open its books to all three and will give them until May 23, the day it announces its annual results, to make full offers. (The Age)

Billboard is reporting that "at least six" indie labels plan either to pull their catalogs from eMusic or offer only back catalog through the music download service. "I hope they can make it a better value proposition for the labels," said one unnamed label head. "But if they don't, we are planning on pulling out." eMusic offers subscriptions of varying quantity and price. Though popular, the low subscription prices means labels get less per song that they would from sales other download stores. A recent price hike by eMusic appeared to be a move to appease some disgruntled labels. (Billboard)

• Warner Music Group is launching a production unit called Den of Thieves that will create content for video platforms such as television, DVD and mobile. (Variety)

The Tennessean's Nicole Keiper has a good article on high-tech music marketing -- and I don't think it's good just because I'm quoted frequently. Keiper talked to Nashville musician Jeremy Lister and the manger of Ben Folds -- also of Nashville -- about their experience performing in the virtual reality world of Second Life. MySpace, too, is a topic, as is music-oriented MySpace clone Virb. (The Tennessean)

• An old Tower Records location that former Tower owner Russ Solomon is using to open a new retail site will be called R5 Records-Video and is slated to open in June. (Sacramento Bee)

May 4, 2007

EMI Has Another Admirer

EMI released a statement today that said the company "has received a number of preliminary indications of interest to acquire."

Reports say that private equity firm One Equity Partners was the company that approached EMI. This Reuters article, pointing to a figure reported in the Financial Times, put the bid amount at $6 billion.

The last bid, which was rejected, by Warner Music Group was $4.2 billion.

April 30, 2007

Monday Business Links

• More talk that Wal-Mart will cut its CD stock unless the release schedule picks up. That move would certainly compound labels' sales problems. (Digital Music News)

• A jury found that Yahoo!'s Launchcast is not liable to Sony BMG for copyright infringement. The heart of the lawsuit was whether or not Launchcast is an interactive service. An interactive service requires a negotiated licensing agreement. A non-interactive service can be covered by a compulsory license. (Billboard.biz)

• EMI's Sparrow signed a deal with Amy Grant that will include the singer's catalog. Sparrow gets all digital and mobile rights. Many of the albums to be reissued have not yet been made available in digital format. (Press release)

• After being dropped by Warner Music, The Crimea self-financed its sophomore album and will give it away for free as a digital download and hopes to make up the difference through touring, merchandise sales and licensing revenue. (The band is selling copies of the CD version.) I find it especially interesting that the publicists, marketers and radio promoters who will work the album have waived their fees in return for a share of future revenue. Secrets Of The Witching Hour will be released May 13th. (The Guardian)

• Hurt by lower orders by labels, CD manufacturer Cinram is looking to high-definition DVDs and video games. (The Times-Tribune)

• A profile on world music label Putumayo, whose growth is in contrast to the industry's slump. Maybe its sales strategy has something to do with it. Roughly 65% of the labels sales come from non-traditional retailers like Whole Foods and Bath & Body Works. (New York Post)

April 27, 2007

Friday Business Links

• Big news out of EMI's Caroline Distribution: All regional sales reps are being let go. The three remaining Los Angeles employees are gone. Their accounts are going to be serviced by EMM reps. (Billboard.biz)

• The value of Canada's music sales fell 35% in Q1 of 2007 (to $68.7 million from $105.6 million) a big increase over the 12% drop last year. Digital music sales make up a mere 6% of the market. (CRIA press release)

• XM Satellite Radio announced its earnings for Q1, a net loss of $122 million on revenues of $264 million. Revenues were up 27% year over year. Subscribers increased to 7.9 million from 6.5 million. (Press release)

• The IFPI announced a "major step forward" in licensing music for streaming across different European countries. (Press release)

• A panel at paidContent's @EconSM conference talked about music and social networking. Not a big surprise that panelists said the musicians cannot rely on MySpace alone. (paidContent)

April 26, 2007

Ames To Head EMI North America

Big news from EMI: Roger Ames, former Warner Music Group chairman/CEO, has been named the head of EMI Music North America.

In addition, Ivan Gavin is leaving his role as EMI Music COO.

There will be more EMI-related news by tomorrow morning, according to someone close to the company. Stay tuned.

April 23, 2007

Monday Business Links

• A Sunday Times report says EMI is "braced to receive a fresh bid" from Warner Music Group and expects some bids from private equity groups. (Forbes.com)

• eMusic president and chief executive David Pakman on talks with Amazon.com: "I can confirm there are no talks right now with any strategic buyer. The company's not for sale. The company is in no need of financing, and our growth is off the charts. We've talked to every media company on the planet, we've been approached by everyone. The company has had 100% year-over-year sequential growth for the last three years." (Forbes.com)

• Music-centric video games are, says a Warner Music Group exec, "one of the few places we've seen in the sweet spot of what consumers want to do with music today, which is interact with it." (Billboard)

• An odd prediction by RoyaltyShare CEO Bob Kohn: Removing DRM will double or triple the size of the music download business. I think that's odd because even with DRM, the download market will double in (roughly) the next 18 months (it's on pace for over 60% annual growth for 2007). Kohn supports dropping DRM but wants to continue to ban the legal sharing of DRM-free tracks (I wonder where that would leave the Zune?) and the posting of such tracks on web sites (which is already a no no that has spotty enforcement). (MusicDish.com)

• Here's a different way to release an album: Rancid's Tim Armstrong is releasing a solo album and giving it away for free -- but not all at one place -- before its official release date. Fans will be able to hunt for the ten tracks (two of while were already released on the Internet) on Rancid-related websites and MySpace pages. (Harp)

April 19, 2007

Thursday Business Links

• Clear Channel agreed to an increased offer of $39 a share -- $19.5 billion in total -- from private equity firms Thomas H. Lee and Bain Capital. Shares are currently trading at $36. Some investors may hold out for a higher offer, but Lee and Bain called $39 their "best and final" offer. (BBC News)

• EMI is in talks with Singapore-based Soundbuzz to offer DRM-free tracks in "multiple markets" in Southeast Asia. (Billboard.biz)

• Amazon.com launched a new music section, called "Go Indie," dedicated to indie music. It has a "hand-picked selection" of nearly 700 titles, 150 of which sell for $9.99. (Press release)

• Standard Life Investments, which owns about 1% of EMI's stock, believes a merger with another media company would be the company's best option. "And it's hard to argue against the logic of large players in the industry coming together and sharing the benefits of cost saving and all sorts of rationalisation that would come with that," said an investment analyst with the company. (Forbes.com)

• Sprint Nextel will open a virtual concert venue in the Second Life virtual reality site that will cater to fans of Latin music. The Sprint Center will stream pre-recorded performances from the Telemundo series "Concierto Clandestino." (Billboard.biz)

April 18, 2007

Wednesday Business Links

• EMI issued a trading update this morning ahead of its announcement of earnings for its fiscal year ended March 31st. Revenue is expected to decline 15% year over year. Digital revenue is expected to increase 59% and will account for 10% of total revenue. Music sales (at constant currency) are in line with guidance, its publishing division has improved operating margin and earnings before interest, depreciation and amortization is expected to be £174 million. Two bullet points stand out. One says EMI is considering the securitization of its publishing assets. The other said the company is suspending dividend payments until its restructuring program has concluded. (Press release)

• Some analyst say a possibly deal with Warner Music Group would be complicated if EMI issues securities backed by its publishing assets. (Reuters)

• Yesterday the RIAA revealed sales figures for 2005 (total revenue down 6.2%, CD sales down 13%) and tried to put a positive spin on the situation. "Today's music marketplace has challenges, but it also offers reason for hope and optimism," said Mitch Bainwol in a statement. "The appetite for music is as strong as ever." (Washington Post)

• EMI's first quarter UK market share pulled even with that of Sony BMG at 16.1%. Universal Music Group was the top dog with 32.8% and Warner Music Group was fourth (of the four majors) with 9.4%. (The Scotsman)

• Warner Bros signed underground legend Murs, the Living Legends member whose previous albums have come out on Def Jux and Record Collector. (SOHH)

• Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin and NAB Radio Board Vice Chairman Russ Withers spoke about a XM/Sirius merger before the US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science & Transportation. Karmazin talked about "more choice at lower prices" and Withers warned of the dangers of a monopoly. (Radio Ink)

April 11, 2007

Warner Shareholder Speaks Out On EMI

Retuers has an article on Thomas H. Lee Partners' Scott Sperling that offers some thoughts on EMI from the Warner Music Group shareholder. (Sperling also sits on WMG's Board of Directors.)

"We want to be very realistic about what we would be buying and what we could do with the company, (as) the base level of profitability and the growth becomes increasingly problematic.
"EMI has announced a series of disappointing results and we don't see it turning around."

We have to look for hints about Sperling's feelings on DRM, and this quote leads me to believe piracy is still high on his list of worries: "The fundamental demand for music continues to grow," Sperling said, but whether consumers are "going to pay for it or steal it is the question."

April 10, 2007

To DRM Or Not To DRM? Future Investment May Depend On It

How do you know the financial press is examining the health of the music industry? Yesterday's issue of Financial Times had three articles dedicated to the music industry, its slumping sales and its attempts to overhaul its business models. EMI's recent moves had ratcheted up the debate on the industry. I think it's a good sign that the financial press is taking a greater interest. When investors take a greater interest, major music groups are more likely to pursue innovative strategies in earnest -- not just merge divisions and cut artist rosters, but really re-think how they do things. (I'm pretty much on board with what labels are doing, but over the last year or so they have collectively lost their way. There has been too little experimentation, too little serious transformation and not enough encourage of entrepreneurship.)

One article claims EMI's copyright decision has divided the music industry. Emiko Terazono wrote that "some music executives worry that raising prices could stifle the digital download market which still accounts for only 12 per cent of the whole music market." (Of course, EMI did not exactly raise prices. It chose to offer a DRM-free, higher bit-rate version for a higher price in addition to the existing format and price. Whether or not the two-tiered pricing will work is another issue.)

Such worries are premature. The entire market will be stifled only if (a) the plan backfires, which could happen if (b) the other majors do not join in the plan. If those worried execs want to do their part to sink EMI's hopes, they will not follow EMI's lead. Without the help of its peers, EMI will find that it cannot by itself invigorate music sales. After all, would iTunes be as successful as it has become if it sold only EMI music? Not by a longshot. But should those worried execs want EMI's plan to fail?

Continue reading "To DRM Or Not To DRM? Future Investment May Depend On It" »

April 9, 2007

Monday Business Links

The Sunday Times reported that Warner Music Group may pursue a merger with EMI by making a direct appeal to its shareholders. The report claimed WMG execs were "astonished" that EMI had moved to drop DRM from downloads while it was a bid target. (Forbes.com)

• Merril Lynch analyst Jessica Reif Cohen warned of more declines this year (no kidding). "With digital growth naturally decelerating over time and the decline in physical sales accelerating, an imminent return to growth for the industry no longer appears likely." She kept a "neutral" on Warner Music Group. If you recall, Reif Cohen caused Merril Lynch to drop out of WMG's IPO and lose millions in underwriting fees after she told the firm it was overvaluing the shares. (Hollywood Reporter)

• It's high time for indie culture to go mainstream: Top indie labels will create a series of compilations, similar to the Now That's What I Call Music series, and partner with MTV2. Distribution will be aimed at mass merchants like Wal-Mart. Vice will release the first volume. Sub Pop and Matador are considering future editions. Said the always quotable Adam Shore of Vice, "We don't really expect indie-rock stores to support this record. It's for the casual fan." (Entertainment Weekly, via Hypebot)

• Sony BMG announced it will release two music titles on Blu-ray this summer: Bruce Springsteen and the E-Sreet Band: Live in Dublin, and Chris Botti Live with Orchestra and Guests. (High-Def Digest)

• Warner Music Group will offer videos through Joost. (Press release)

• Some feedback on download sales at MySpace. In a nutshell, they're quite low thus far. "People don't go to MySpace to buy," one source said. "I just don't think people are going to MySpace to buy stuff," said another. Obviously Snocap and Hooka have to get people to register and become familiar with the process. (Digital Music News)

• A profile of Dennis Mudd, CEO and co-founder of digital music company Slacker. (USA Today)

April 3, 2007

Analysts On EMI's DRM Drop

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Just about everybody has an opinion on EMI's drop of DRM from its digital downloads. Here's a compilation of analysts' quotes and a few of my thoughts.

Jupiter's David Card sees little short-term impact and a greater long-term impact: "Will DRM-free distribution jump-start digital music sales? (Especially enough to deflect the impact of dying CDs.) Unlikely. At least not in and of itself. It should enable more competition among stores and devices, which, in the longer run, will."

Card is right. EMI alone cannot cause much of a change in digital sales. Consumers will react when they have a reasonable expectation of what product and price awaits them. Since iTunes is mostly a "pull" retailer, customers will have to stumble across EMI's DRM-free tracks artist by artist, release by release. (I imagine that serious jazz fans know which titles are owned by EMI, but mainstream pop fans? No way.) When consumers know that all tracks are DRM-free, their behavior will begin to change (which could mean an increase in purchases or the purchase of a different music player).

Dropping DRM was good news for the digital kiosk industry, which to date has been hampered by interoperability. There's a great deal of potential there -- but only when all songs are DRM-free. Partially DRM-free catalogs could be a source of confusion and frustration.

In writing about the DRM drop's effect on iPod competitors, Jupiter's Michael Gartenberg did not make a prediction but explained the implications of either outcome: "For other vendors in the hardware space, it will eventually remove the issue of iTunes lock in but if their sales don't take off, it will be clear that it wasn't lock in to the iPod economy that prevented their success."

Gartner's Mike McGwire had two points (read article here). First, Apple will get more money for basically the same product. Second, DRM's future lies in subscription-based models, or as he put it "less as a lock and more as a tracking mechanism." I think that's fair to say. All-you-can-eat subscription models require DRM.

Said NPD Group's Ross Rubin (in this SF Chronicle article), "Most consumers just care if it works with their music player today. But in the long term, it'll benefit consumers because we'll see more devices able to work with digital music."

Bridgewell analyst Patrick Yau did not go out on a limb. "EMI has said that it is aiming for 25 percent of its revenues to come from digital sales by 2010, and we suspect that this will provide a boost to those aims," he said. Sure. Unless labels do something to shore up CD sales, that 25% by 2010 would be a done deal without ditching DRM.

April 2, 2007

Details On DRM-Free Downloads To Be Offered By iTunes, EMI

EMI held a press conference today to announce it will sell its entire catalog in DRM-free, high quality downloads. (Read press release.) iTunes will be the first online retailer to offer the tracks. Each track will cost $1.29, or $0.30 higher than lower quality tracks with DRM. Complete albums will automatically be sold with the higher sound quality and without DRM -- but at the same price (now iTunes' second incentive to purchase an entire album over individual tracks).

Said EMI's Eric Nicoli, "ur goal is to give consumers the best possible digital music experience. By providing DRM-free downloads, we aim to address the lack of interoperability which is frustrating for many music fans. We believe that offering consumers the opportunity to buy higher quality tracks and listen to them on the device or platform of their choice will boost sales of digital music."

Engadget live-blogged the event and its Q&A session. Click here to listen to the webcast of the press conference.

On a side note, I have to wonder if today's announcement would have been held if Levy and Munns were still running EMI. Many seemed to feel that EMI's previous leadership was too "old guard" and that the company was not properly transforming itself for the digital era. Nicoli did not waste much time in ridding EMI of at least one old convention.

Monday Business Links

• A private equity group abandoned its plans to bid on EMI. That equity group is led by former EMI exec Jim Fifield. (The Guardian)

• Sony BMG UK has launched a A&R blogs (using Six Apart's Vox) where users can post tracks and videos. Right now there are two such blogs, Columbiademos.co.uk and RCAdemos.co.uk. A good idea? Too early to say. If the labels wanted to have to sift through much more mediocre material, then yes, mission accomplished. (Hollywood Reporter)

• Rumors are circulating that Amazon.com is going to purchase eMusic. (Hypebot)

• Victory Records is following shifts in industry and creating an in-house touring division to book shows for Victory bands that do not yet have a proper booking agent. Labels are smart to offer this service to its acts; why let somebody else make money off your artists? If music is ever to be used as a loss leader -- which some people are pushing -- the line between label and booking agent will be completely blurred. (Billboard.biz)

• Online radio station WOXY launched a music blog titled The Futurist. Not that the world needs another indie rock-heavy music blog, but WOXY will post its own live studio recordings (Ted Leo, Cloud Cult and Land of Talk have been posted thus far). (The Futurist, via Largehearted Boy)

April 1, 2007

EMI and Apple To Hold Press Conference Tomorrow. EMI Will Drop DRM On Some Of Its Catalog

EMI's Eric Nicoli and Apple Computer's Steve Jobs will hold a press conference tomorrow (Monday) afternoon at EMI's London headquarters. (Read article at MacWorld.) The invitation to journalists reads, "Please join EMI Group CEO Eric Nicoli at EMI’s headquarters on Monday 2 April at 1pm London/8am New York time to hear about an exciting new digital offering, with special guest, Apple CEO Steve Jobs."

Why would Jobs go to London to make an announcement with EMI? If it's not something related to The Beatles catalog, I'm stumped.

From New York Times: Jupiter analyst Mark Mulligan has a guess on tomorrow's event: a "Yellow Submarine" iPod that comes preloaded with Beatles tracks. "The trademark settlement deal clearly raised the possibility of Apple selling EMI music in a physical format. This is an original idea and helps Apple with their core business, selling devices.”

Update: Reuters has sources that say this will not be a Beatles announcement.

So....what is this about? DRM possibly. I can't imagine that Jobs would show up for an announcement about something as (to the layman) mundane as a new licensing agreement. Apple rolls out new iTunes features very quietly, but it makes a big splash with hardware-related news. Nicoli was really talking up with iPhone the other day, so that's a possibility.

Updated update: According to the Wall Street Journal (via Idolator), EMI will announce it will offer a "significant amounts of its catalog" without DRM.

Wow. I'm not totally blown away, but I'm blown away. Offering just parts of its catalog without DRM is a major change in strategy. But it makes perfect sense. This is a year in which things are coming to a boil and pressure to re-think entrenched beliefs is higher than ever. The fun part will be the wait for EMI's competitors, and seeing how this effects catalog sales.

March 29, 2007

Nicoli on Mobile Music: It Needs Work, And It's Not Our Fault

You know the music industry is really aching to develop new revenue streams when EMI's Eric Nicoli gently talks down at mobile operators he feels are stunting the market's growth. Said Nicoli at the CTIA Wireless trade show in Orlando,

"We will not reach our goals if we carry on as we have been doing. Not to diminish what we have achieved so far, but there are important challenges to address if we want to take this business to the next level. And that means we must put the customer at the forefront."

By "we" he means "we can be only as successful as hardware manufacturers and mobile operators allow us to be," which is partially true. And...

"Apple makes stuff that people love to own. They love the simplicity and user-friendliness of the iPod and iTunes. Apple doesn't employ any sorcery or dark magic to achieve this. They listen to what consumers want. And that shouldn't be Apple's unique privilege."

More from paidContent:

"He suggests a three-part test for every decision: value for money, good product offering, ease of use. Nicoli said he feared 'many of us' would fail the test if applied to what is being offered now: 'I'm merely asserting that we all have more room for improvement than we can comfortably admit in public.'"

March 28, 2007

NY Post: Warner's Quest for EMI Hurt By Weak Market

Maybe you too have noticed that the press has been quiet about Warner Music Group and EMI for the last few weeks. Today the New York Post's Peter Laura breaks the silence with a look at how WMG's weakening financial position could be hurting its bid to acquire EMI.

"Warner stock fell to $16.26 yesterday, only 19 cents above its 52-week low it reached on Friday. More important, that's $2.62 below the price on March 2 when EMI's board rejected its takeover bid. Based on Warner's roughly 150 million outstanding shares, that $2.62 per share collapse equates to a paper loss of $393 million.

What's more, after Warner posted a 74 percent drop in net income in the fiscal first quarter, analysts are bracing for a similarly dreary second quarter, which will end Friday. But given EMI's own problems - two profit warnings, layoffs and merging of its Capitol and Virgin record labels - Warner's financial difficulties by comparison have gone largely unnoticed."

Last week, the European Union announced it would take longer to approve the Sony BMG merger. Add to that poor market conditions and WMG's worsening financial position and you've got a different outlook at a possible acquisition of EMI.

March 27, 2007

Tuesday Business Links

• EMI and Bertelsmann settled their lawsuit related to the latter's support (loans) for the Napster P2P service. Specifics were not disclosed. Universal Music Group settled for $60 million in September 2006. (FT.com)

• Napster inked a deal to provide its Napster To Go subscription service free of charge to AT&T wireless and high-speed Internet customers. Customers will be able to upload tracks to portable music players and compatible mobile phones. The offer will be free with a two-year wireless agreement with purchase of select phones. Home users will get the service if they purchase ATT&T Yahoo! or FastAccess DSL Ultra Internet service. (Press release)

• Sprint is dropping prices for over-the-air downloads to $0.99 for customers that subscribe to any Sprint Data Vision data plan. (Press release)

• Nettwerk and video game company Electronic Arts announced a joint venture label, Artwerk, to develop new and established for both physical and digital distribution. (Digital Media Wire)

• Waylon Jennings' "Theme From Dukes of Hazzard (Good Ol' Boys)" has become the first country music ringtone to reach platinum, or sales of one million. (Press release)

• Doug Morris, CEO of Universal Music Group, was named to CBS Corp's board of directors. (Broadcast Newsroom)

• Read DiMA's reaction to the U.S. Register's call for modernization of Section 115 of the Copyright Act. "A streamlined blanket music licensing system will guarantee digital music services access to more music with lower transaction costs, which in turn will encourage innovation, keep legal music prices low, grow our industry and increase royalties to all creators." (Press release)

March 23, 2007

Friday Business Links

• An Enders Analysis report claims the recorded music market "could" stabilize by 2009. Lower CD sales are one reason why music publisher revenue is expected to have a cumulative annual growth rate of only 2.2% through 2012. (Enders Analysis)

• To celebrate his 80th birthday, EMI is offering 11 currently unavailable Rostropovich albums -- two of which have never been issued on CD -- at iTunes. (Playbill)

• The RIAA on its legal battle against P2P company Limewire: "They respond. We respond. They respond, etc. Then discovery. These things take a long time." (Digital Music News)

• The FCC approved Citadel's acquisition of 24 ABC radio stations. Commissioner Copps said the transaction is "narrowly" in the public interest. (Radio Ink)

• Jupiter analyst David Card on album sales: "The industry has to spread artist development risk more efficiently. That means that radio probably does have to pay, or share revenues. And artists have to get paid at the back end, not in advance. It's not just the labels who'll die if this continues." He's right, but as is always the case in a convoluted industry, it's easier said than done. (David Card's Jupiter Blog)

March 13, 2007

Tuesday Business Links

• Starbucks and Concord Music Group have formed a new record label, Hear Music, that will release titles for both internal and external distribution. Seems like odd timing given that company founder Howard Schultz has been worried about the chain's brand recently. (Billboard.biz)

• EMI has dismissed claims by UK download site Wippit that the Beatles catalog will soon be available online. (Irish Examiner)

• British retailer HMV issued a profit warning. The company plans to close unprofitable stores and refurbish others. Also in the mix is a social networking site, to be tied to its own website, for music and film fans. (BBC News)

• Sub Pop Records has founded a new label, Hardly Art. (Pitchfork)

• Warner Music Group looks to be hesitant to up its offer of 260p per share for EMI, an offer that is "subject to numerous assumptions and conditions." EMI doesn't want to give access to its books without a commitment of a higher offer. (Times Online)

• Primary Wave's first big Nirvana licensing deal after purchasing 50% of the catalog for $50 million? Inclusion on the Major League Baseball 2K7 video game for the track "Breed." (New York Post)

• Old news, but I'll mention it: Universal Music Group settled its lawsuit with online video site Bolt.com for a "multimillion payment for damages for past infringement." (Press release)

March 12, 2007

Monday Morning Links

• Warner Music Group is ready to go after EMI again, The Wall Street Journal reported. (AFX)

• Country group Lonestar has been dropped by Sony BMG's BNA Records. (CMT.com)

• European Union consumer chief Meglena Kuneva has criticized Apple's combination of iPod and iTunes. "Do you think it's fine that a CD plays in all CD players but that an iTunes song only plays in an iPod?" he asked. "I don't. Something has to change." (Reuters)

• Warner Music Group has added hip hop label Rhymesayers to its Independent Label Group. Rhymesayers was previously distributed by Navarre and will now go through WMG's ADA Distribution. (Billboard.biz)

• Congressman Mike Doyle spoke about mash-ups and mixtapes at last week's "Future of Radio" House Telecom and Internet sub-committee hearing...and name dropped one of his constituents, indie dance artist Girl Talk. Said Doyle, "I hope that everyone involved will take a step back and ask themselves if mash-ups and mixtapes are really different or if it's the same as Paul McCartney admitting that he nicked the Chuck Berry bass-riff and used it on the Beatle's hit 'I Saw Her Standing There.'" (The 463: Inside Tech Policy)

• Warner Bros' expensive mistake of 2006, Paris Hilton's debut album, fared so poorly that Hilton will reportedly be dropped in the coming weeks. (Digital Spy)

February 27, 2007

EMI Wants Online Sellers To Share Risk. No Takers.

Making the rounds right now is a story that EMI asked online retailers to make cash advances in exchange for the right to sell its catalog in the open MP3 format.

What strikes me about this move is the lack of takers. Look at the factors that are believed by many to be truths. Here are three things about MP3 that are held by many to be true: First, people will pay more for MP3s. Second, labels will sell more music if they ditch DRM. Third, DRM does not stop piracy and should be removed.

EMI needed an insurance policy. It wanted retailers to share in the risk. The cash advances were its insurance policy. If the three items above hold true, logic dictates that EMI's insurance policy will never be exercised. Piracy will not increase -- but sales will increase. If the three items above hold true, digital music sellers will make more money. Increased sales of more expensive files is a double-shot to the top line. If the three items above hold true, there is all reward and no risk.

So EMI asked companies to put their money where their mouths are. If there's no risk, EMI's offer implied to retailers, then share in the reward.

Turns out there were no takers of EMI's offer. Turns out there are gaps between EMI's estimate of risk and retailers estimate of the reward.

I understand EMI's point of view. Retailers are asking EMI to bear all the risk and assume none of it themselves. EMI's proposal was to shift some risk to its retail partners. Maybe its requested advance was just too high. Maybe they set it too high to see what counteroffers they would get. One thing I can ascertain from this is that retailers were not turned off by simply the idea of paying an advance.

Monday Business Links

• US buyout firm Fortress is taking a look at EMI, as are Apollo and private equity firm One Equity. (AFX)

• Los Angeles gets a country station today. (Radio Ink)

• Story of a YouTube "star" who doesn't want to sign with a record label. The move could end up saving labels from themselves. If OK Go gets only 200,000 album sales from a YouTube megahit, why look use YouTube popularity as an indicator of future music sales? Who's to say YouTube popularity will translate to success at radio, television or touring? Right now, all indicators point to YouTube popularity existing in a near vacuum. (Billboard)

• A profile on DC-area indie retail chain cd.gameexchange. (Washington Post)

• Broadcasters speak out for relaxed ownership rules at the FCC media ownership hearing in Harrisburg, PA. (AP)

• DRM lives on: BitTorrent to launch a movie download service today with files protected by Microsoft DRM. The press seems to be going a bit light on founder Bram Cohen even though media files will be wrapped in the same sort of DRM that gets online music retailers so much grief. (The News.com)

February 23, 2007

Friday Business Links

• To cut is (probably not) to cure: EMI laid off an undisclosed number of employees in Canada. (Billboard.biz)

• The EU is looking at whether or not the Sony BMG merger has raised CD prices. A survey sent to record companies and trade group asks, "Have the majors shown a parallel behavior, in particular in terms of prices before the merger? Did the merger have an effect on such parallelism?" Honest answers please. (Bloomberg News)

• The newly-created House Antitrust Task Force will hold a public hearing next week on the proposed merger between Sirius and XM. (The Wall Street Journal)

• Internet radio listening jumped 26% in 2006. AOL's radio network, at 15.25 hours per week, is the most listened to online radio network. (Radio Ink)

• The UK government responded to a petition to ban DRM. In short, it is not jumping on Norway's bandwagon. Excerpt: "DRM does not only act as a policeman through technical protection measures, it also enables content companies to offer the consumer unprecedented choice in terms of how they consume content, and the corresponding price they wish to pay." (Number-10.gov, via Tech Digest)

• The state of music retail in Columbia, Ohio. (The Other Paper)

• The state of music retail in Belfast, Ireland. "The demise of the independent sector has been rapid, brutal and in inverse proportion to the rise of downloading and the digital revolution." Actually, I think the demise has been in direct proportion to the rise of downloading and the digital revolution, but I get what they're saying. (Belfast Telegraph)

February 22, 2007

Thursday Business Links

• EMI wrote Warner Music Group and highlighted its regulatory concerns over a possible acquisition. (Reuters)

• Andy Gershon lands at Epic Records -- as executive VP -- after departing V2. (Billboard.biz)

• Indie retail legend Reckless Records is expanding to a third Chicago location. (Chicago Reader, via Fifth Disc)

• Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin predicts a better than 50/50 chance of getting regulatory approval for a merger with XM. Analysts aren't so optimistic. I'm not either. (BusinessWeek.com)

• EMI is taking the entire 15th floor of a waterfront office building in Jersey City. (The Real Estate)

• Puretracks announced it is offering music in the MP3 format from labels such as Arts & Crafts and Beggars Banquet, which are already available DRM-free elsewhere. (CBC)

February 21, 2007

Wednesday Business Links

• Interscope Geffen A&M Records has acquired Octone Records, home of Maroon 5. (Billboard.biz)

• Bennett Lincoff, former Director of Legal Affairs at ASCAP, posted a white paper on his website that outlines his plan to fix the music business. It hinges upon licenses not for consumers but for "responsible for the digital transmissions at issue" -- which would include music bloggers. (Musical Licensing White Paper PDF, via Wired's Listening Post)

• Warner Music Group's offer for EMI likely to be in cold, hard cash. (Reuters)

• An analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers on a WMG acquisition of EMI: "A deal would be a no-brainer." (The Herald)

• And maybe it would be more of a no-brainer for regulators. "The industry is having a very bad time now, and regulators may take a more lenient approach," said an analyst at Panmure Gordon. I dunno. Regulators tend to be concerned with consumers and competition more than propping up the financial health of companies. The market would arguably be more competitive if private equity purchased EMI's recorded music business. (New York Times)

• For its 2007 event, SXSW posted a 3.1 GB BitTorrent with 739 MP3s from 739 artists. (Download)

February 20, 2007

Warner Music Group Approached EMI About Acquisition

Following an EMI statement, Warner Music Group issued a statement this morning about its approach of EMI to acquire the troubled London-based music group. (Read WMG press release) This came before EMI's most recent profit warning and stock slide. What prompted the timing of WMG's approach of EMI? WMG got the support of indie label trade group Independent Music Publishers and Labels Association (IMPALA), which pledged support for an acquisition before the European Commission and other regulatory bodies.

If WMG were to make an offer for EMI, it would do three things. First, it would provide funds for Merlin, the new indie-created global licensing group (read press release). Second, WMG would divest itself of "certain recorded music assets" to protect indie market share. Third, it would pursue "various other behavioral commitments" which would benefit the music market as a whole and, specifically, the indie sector.

EMI's statement (read press release) "There is, however, no proposal currently for the EMI Board to consider," the company said.

WMG's approach of EMI was not much by a key EMI shareholder. "As far we are concerned, the takeover approach does not really move the dial a huge distance. If it progresses to a more formal offer, we will judge it on the basis of the offer."

February 19, 2007

Shareholder Sends A Letter To EMI and Other EMI-related Items

The Wall Street Journal has an article on a letter from hedge fund Eclectica Asset Management to EMI Chairman John Gildersleeve. (Article in online today, will probably be in tomorrow's print version. The Times Online also has an article on the letter.) The letter calls for greater "transparency" in the way EMI values its assets. Pointing to how Chrysalis discloses its net-of-royalties revenue, EAM urged EMI to disclose the after-royalty income of its music publishing unit. Such disclosures would help valuate the company and relieve what EAM called "valuation uncertainty and excessive share price volatility."

News of EMI's financial situation is all over the place. Here's some more reading.

• EMI may issue debt, to be backed by its publishing revenues, to pay off almost $2 billion of bonds. (Bloomberg)
• EMI considering a sale of its recorded music business or refinancing its publishing division. See above for just such a financing decision, similar to The David Bowie Publishing-Backed Bond Sale. (The Guardian)

February 17, 2007

LA Times Details EMI's MP3 Strategy, Why Jobs Spoke Out Against DRM

In his Bit Player blog at the LA Times, Jon Healey lays out EMI's strategy for pushing MP3s at online retail as told to him by "two sources in the online music biz." While the press oddly attributed news of EMI's recent push to MP3 to Steve Jobs' DRM-bashing open letter, Jobs looks to have been reacting to EMI's quiet MP3 strategy.

EMI, wrote Healey, was asking online retailers for cash advances in exchange for the right to sell its catalog in MP3 format. That strategy was a reaction to a proposal by RealNetworks for switching to MP3. Who did and who did not get EMI's proposal explains Jobs' recent push to get rid of DRM.

"The deal was apparently not offered to Apple, however; evidently, EMI wanted to build up momentum among the also-rans before making Jobs and offer he might otherwise refuse. Before EMI could sign on the dotted line with the likes of RealNetworks and Napster, however, Jobs dropped his DRM bombshell. Go straight to the head of the parade, Steve! Then the Wall Street Journal reported EMI's MP3 overtures, and suddenly the record company wasn't in such a hurry to announce its initiative."

Looks like a good theory on the sequence of events. EMI wants to sell MP3s but wants to start small and build up to iTunes. Apple doesn't want to miss the MP3 party and throws a wrench into EMI's plan to leave Apple out of its initial plans.

February 16, 2007

Friday Business Links

• In 30 days, PassAlong Networks will start offering its entire catalog in MP3 format. The company will use its FreedomMP3, which allows the use of MP3 format with "a reasonable amount of rights management" that works on PCs with Windows 2000 or higher. (Press release)

• CMC Management Group is try to launch the Country Music Cafe in Nashville, the first in what it hopes will be a nationwide expansion. On the CMC team is music industry vet Tim Wipperman. (Nashville Scene)

• Louis Hau on music's digital holdouts. It's not just The Beatles, but AC/DC, Paul McCartney and, I've often noticed, Husker Du. Radiohead and others do not permit a la carte downloads, instead requiring purchase of entire albums. (Forbes.com)

• EMI woes seen unlikely to shift merger block. (Reuters)

• EMI in desperate need of venture capital rehab. "The difficulty for Eric Nicoli, who has been chairman or chief executive since 1999, is that he is not a Michael Grade who can provide creative leadership; nor is it clear that he will spend much time in the US. Instead, much responsibility is invested in Jason Flom’s running of the merged Capitol and Virgin labels." (Times Online)

• An article on Daytrotter.com, which records indie bands -- Cold War Kids, Bonnie Price Billy, Elf Power, for example -- in its studio and gives away the MP3s for free. Bands do not collect a fee, and the site sells advertising and a few T-shirts. (Chicago Reader)

February 15, 2007

Thursday Business Links

• Entertainment One Income Fund sold its investments -- which include Koch Entertainment Distribution -- to Marwyn Investment Management for approximately US $161 million. (Video Business)

• More Koch: The company announced the formation of Koch Records Jazz/Adult Division. Chuck Mitchell, former head of Verve Records, will head the new operation. (Jazz News)

• Warner Music Group announced a partnership with Norway-based mobile operator Telenor that originally covers nine of Telenor's mobile operators. (Press release)

• Nic Feldes has a good recap of EMI's current situation. (The Independent)

• Read the text of Edgar Bronfman's keynote at the 3GSM Conference in Barcelona. Here's a sample of the frank commentary: "Actually, it’s amazing that we’ve generated as much revenue as we have through mobile music, given how cumbersome the consumer experience can be." (Download PDF)

• Actor Heath Ledger has partnered with musician Ben Harper to start the new Masses Music Co record label. First singing: Australian Grace Woodruffe. (StarPulse)

February 14, 2007

Wednesday Business Links

• EMI warns of lower profits for the fiscal year -- a whopping 15% decline year over year -- and points to weakening sales in North America. (Press release)

• David Goldberg, one of the leading critics of DRM, is one of two execs leaving Yahoo! Music for "personal reasons." He said he will return to his "entrepreneurial roots." (Billboard.biz, more at paidContent)

• At the 3GSM conference, music executives criticize mobile operators for poor user experiences. (New Media Age)

• Trans World announces Vcommerce Enterprise, consolidates the majority of its stores under the name f.y.e." (Press release)

• LiveNation has closed the Starwood Amphitheater in Nashville and canceled its 2007 season. (WKRN.com)

• Venture capital for musical acts. (Billboard.biz)

• Canada is making a second attempt to tax MP3 players. (VNUNet)

February 12, 2007

Report Says Beatles Catalog Will Soon Be Online

Fox News' Roger Friedman reported today that Neil Aspinall, the head of Apple Corps Ltd, told him over the weekend that the Beatles' catalog will be available at online stores soon.

"'All 13 core albums, the ones originally released on CD in 1987, have been remastered,' Aspinall told me. "At some point they will all be released, probably at the same time.'

But the film “Let It Be” remains in DVD purgatory, Aspinall says. The reason? 'The film was so controversial when it first came out. When we got halfway through restoring it, we looked at the outtakes and realized: This stuff is still controversial. It raised a lot of old issues.

... And those 13 remastered albums? They will not include “Hey Jude,” a 1969 compilation album that Americans of a certain age fondly recall and keep in their collections on vinyl only.'"

February 8, 2007

Thursday Business Links

• Capita>ol Music Group has started laying off workers says a Billboard report. I heard it had started last week, but no difference. Pink slips are pink slips. Seven promotions employees got the axe at Capita>ol. (Yes, I know I spell the label wrong on occasion. After writing about net working capital and capital structure all day, I guess it's a hard habit to break.) (Billboard.biz)

• Ticketmaster hooks up with iTunes to offer a free song with every ticket purchased at Ticketmaster.com. (Hollywood Reporter)

• Now this is PR: An entire article on EMI's scant MP3 experiments. Such experiments are unlikely to offer an indication of potential results on a broader scale, though EMI spokesperson Adam Grossberg called them "very positive" (without giving any numbers). (MarketWatch)

• Steve Machin has joined Ultrastar as Vice President of International Business Development. Machin was previously head of Ticketmaster's European strategy and business development. (Press release)

• A directory of RIAA lawsuits. (Recording Industry vs The People)

February 7, 2007

Wednesday Business Notes

• As reported recently by the New York Post, Jermaine Dupri will be named president of Island Urban later today. (Billboard.biz)

• Even more changes at EMI. Chris Ancliff has been upped to General Counsel. He replaced Charles Ashcroft, who leaves for health reasons. (Variety)

• Helio announces a mobile download store, and all four majors are on board. Over-the-air downloads go for $1.99. Tracks downloaded to PC cost half that. (InformationWeek)

• Viacom is considering selling its music publishing division, Famous Music, the home of Eminem and Shakira. (Reuters)

• Warner Music Group and Last.fm, the music-centered social networking site, announced a partnership that will offer WMG's catalog over multiple services, one of which will be a premium, subscription-based interactive radio. Currently, Last.fm streams songs on a non-interactive basis. (Press release)

• Reggae label VP Records signed a digital and mobile distribution deal with Universal Music Group that excludes North America, Japan and the Caribbean. (Tropicalfete)

• British music retailer Music Zone has sold 67 of its 100 stores to competitor Fopp. (Scotsman)

February 6, 2007

Tuesday Business Links

• EMI and AOL Europe will run an ad-supported music video streaming site. (NewMediaAge)

• Rumor: Microsoft is developing a Zune phone. (CrunchGear, via Billboard.biz)

• Just as Norah Jones hit the top of the charts, concerns about the company's debt burden caused Standard & Poor's to downgrade EM's long-term rating to BB- from BB. (Forbes.com)

• Expectations of a weak first quarter earnings -- which will be announced Thursday -- dropped Warner Music Group's stock 3.4% yesterday. (Reuters)

• Columbian music star Juanes, who already has a recording contract with Universal Music Group, has signed on with Universal Music Publishing. (Monsters & Critics)

• Sting on the digital revolution: "I genuinely do not believe that the digital download phenomenon is as big as the websites are suggesting, certainly not in the album market." (The Australian)

• Reminder: The 2007 Plug: Independent Music Awards, which celebrate independent artists, are this Saturday at New York City's Webster Hall. (PlugAwards.com)

February 5, 2007

Monday Business Links

• Record exec and producer Rick Rubin is in talks to become co-chairman of Columbia Records. His label American has three years left on its deal with Warner Music Group. (Variety.com)

• Patents filed by Apple appear to be an attempt to strengthen its FairPlay DRM and the iPod and iPhone ecoystems. (ITNews)

• Billboard.biz talks to Roger Faxon and Clark Miller of EMI Music Publishing. "The reality of the online world is that it has no borders, and, therefore, the license needs to recognize the expanse of the use territorially." (Billboard.biz)

• VH1 gets into the user-generated content business with its recently launched Talentload.tv. (paidContent)

• Yesterday CBS Radio's WARW-FM/Washington switched to 94.7 The Globe, adding alternative hits to its classic rock format and adding a pro-environment message. (Radio Ink)

• Music promoter Billy Kelly, who was behind Glasgow's Big Big World and Big Big Country, died at the age of 58. (The Herald)

February 2, 2007

EMI Continues Restructuring. Next Up: Caroline

Earlier today, EMI announced its restructuring at Caroline Distribution and Astralwerks Records. Most is old news. Astralwerks GM Errol Kolosine is out, as well as four others at Astralwerks and Caroline. Much of it is quite fascinating. It shows that EMI's vision is to be a service company in addition to being a recorded music and distribution company.

The meat of the announcement comes in the new strategies. EMI has a three-part plan to use Caroline and Astralwerks, which share office space, to support EMI UK and EMI International music. As part of the new Repertoire Unit, Astralwerks "will continue to represent the best in electronic, dance and alternative music," Caroline Records will be relaunched as a hard music label, and Internationally Known "will begin issuing physical and digital releases for some select international pop titles, as well as some digital-only titles."

In addition, an artist development unit has been created to offer distributed labels promotion, street marketing and digital marketing services (i.e. take business away from the multitude of boutique marketing companies to which their labels farm out these duties). Astralwerks' promotion and marketing teams will move into this new entity. The rock unit be headed by former Victory Records GM Ramsey Dean. Caroline already has a similar unit for hip hop music.

Friday Morning Links

• Target to partner with upstart label 180 Music to release exclusive, adult-centric CDs with a $9.99 price tag. (Reuters)

• Primary Wave Music Publishing is expected to announce the acquisition of a "significant interest" in the catalog of Hall & Oates. (New York Post)

• KCRW to release "Sounds Electic: The Covers Project" exclusively in select Starbucks locations. (Billboard.com)

• Capitol Music Group promotes Lee Trink to president and Jeff Kempler to COO. (FMBQ)

• Live Nation concocts MySpace of concert websites. (Digital Music News)

• Bill Gates talks about micropayments; speculation that the Zune Marketplace, which uses Microsoft Points for purchases, will be part of a grander scheme to make another bid at online payments. (The Globe and Mail)

January 29, 2007

Monday Morning Business Notes, Links

• EMI's restructuring has eliminated an "indefinite number of positions" at EMI Christian Music Group. Regional sales offices in Atlanta and Chicago have been closed. EMI CMG's will continue with its deal with Midas Records, which gives EMI CMG worldwide rights to to general market, Christian and digital distribution of Midas' Christian roster. One of the label's highly touted new acts is Rush of Fools. (Read article at Christian Post)

• Sanctuary Group reported an operating loss of £56.7 million ($111.7 million) for the year ending September 30, 2006. It included £8 million for refinancing and restructuring. Revenue was down to £133.2 million from £148.1 million. That was quite an improvement from the previous year's loss of £136 million. Rough Trade, which is partially owned by Sanctuary, posted a loss for the year. The company said it is considering selling off some assets. Management sees a return to profitability by "2008 or later." (Read article at The Guardian and the press release)

• According to co-founder Chad Hurley, YouTube will start sharing revenue with its users. This applies for videos for which the user owns the copyright. Sounds like a lot of police work to make this happen. (Read article at BBC, via paidContent)

• Must be a lot of paperwork involved: The University of South Carolina has hired a full-time employee to receive the RIAA's copyright complaints. (Read article at The Charlotte Observer)

January 26, 2007

Capitol Music Group: What Now?

After yesterday's announcement of the newly formed Capitol Music Group, there are questions about what artists will remain, how many employees will be laid off and what will become of Capitol's Los Angeles operations.

The Los Angeles Times' Geoff Boucher wrote about concerns about Virgin's location and upcoming layoffs. "Capitol staffers who didn't want to be identified because of the sensitive situation said they feared major job cuts were coming, noting that some employees were being told that they would have to interview to keep their jobs." Those fears are reasonable. The terms restructuring and cost-cutting are business euphemisms for layoffs.

In an email to employees, EMI head Eric Nicoli wrote, "We will maintain operations in both New York and Los Angeles." Jason Flom, who will run Capitol Music Group, currently works out of Virgin Records' New York office. Personally, I think EMI should retain as much of a presence in Los Angeles as possible. A bi-coastal office is usually not a good idea, but the company needs a strong base in that market and on the West Coast.

The Tennessean's Ryan Underwood covered the news from a Music Row point of view. "EMI Group’s decision this week to merge its Capitol and Virgin labels in the U.S. won’t cause any ripple effects on Music Row," he wrote.

The New York Times' Jeff Leeds reported that Capitol president Andy Slater "is expected to receive a payout that could exceed $15 million."

For forum gossip, read The Velvet Rope's thread on the merger. There is talk of cuts at EMI-owned Astralwerks and Caroline Distribution, and discussion on whether or not EMI would back out of its deal with recent signing Interpol (I highly doubt it).

January 25, 2007

EMI Reorg: Capitol and Virgin Unite, Flom In Charge

EMI just announced the formation of Capitol Music Group in the U.S. It consists of Capitol Records and Virgin Records. Jason Flom, the chairman and CEO of Virgin, will become the chairman and CEO of the newly formed Capitol Music Group.

Andy Slater, president and chief executive at Capitol, "has stepped down from his post."

A statement from EMI chief Eric Nicoli:

"The music business shows exciting growth potential, but the environment remains extremely challenging. In order to thrive and meet the demands of a rapidly evolving and dynamic music market, we must re-think our operations, not only to make them efficient, but also more effective and focused on creative excellence. By bringing Capitol and Virgin into one label group, we will be better equipped than ever to promote and nurture artistic talent. We remain strongly committed to developing artists in America in all genres as this is a key repertoire source for the world, and to that end, we will maintain our A&R focus and keep a presence in both LA and New York. This structure will also allow us to further build our digital capability. Jason Flom quickly demonstrated his leadership and artist development abilities since he has been at Virgin. I am confident that he will take us to new levels of success in the rock, pop and urban genres as leader of the Capitol Music Group"

Bruce Lundvall at Blue Note will continue to report to Nicoli. Others divisons, such as Capitol Nashville, Caroline Distribution and EMI Music Christian Group, will continue to report to Ivan Gavin.

There you have it, the first ripples from EMI restructuring that resulted in the dismissal of Levy and Munns. This consolidation that was expected in many corners of the industry.

January 24, 2007

Wragg On EMI's Digital Growth, Nicoli

Barney Wragg, the head of digital for EMI Music worldwidel, is incredibly optimistic about the company's prospects to create growth in the digital market. One of the reasons is Eric Nicoli, the head of EMI Music and an executive who does not seem to instill much faith in analyst and investors. Wragg as quoted in an article at The Guardian:

"These are changing times. The good thing about the area of the business on which I focus is that I can hold a torch up and show people that the future is very bright for EMI. Over the next three to six months, you're definitely going to see a change in EMI's profile in the digital music market."

On Nicoli's leadership:

"I'd never seen anywhere where the whole company had this commitment."

Wragg pointed to China and the company's deal with Internet protal Baidu as a potential source of growth. While Wragg talks of ad-supported business models, EMI's competitors have been busy firming up its mobile distribution network.

January 22, 2007

Monday Morning Business Notes, Links

• At MIDEM, more signs of increased licensing in the future by way of streamlined processes: Britain's Music Publisher's Assn. and MCPS-PRS Alliance have launched a pan-European digital licensing template. Music publishers can use the template to opt in and allow the alliance to license their content throughout Europe. (Read article at Billboard.biz)

• Clear Channel has made plans to sell stations in 17 markets, Radio Ink has learned. Seven stations in Fargo, North Dakota will be sold. Six in Casper, Wyoming. Five in Pocatello, Idaho. Seven in Missoula, Montana. (Read article at Radio Ink for complete list).

• EMI's Eric Nicoli has been on a "whirlwind tour" since taking the reins of EMI Music. He has met with analysts, analysts and Norah Jones in London; Joss Stone in Toronto; and former WMG chief (and current consutant) Roger Ames in New York. It is reported Nicoli had a "positive, wide-ranging discussion" with Apple's Steve Jobs. (Read article at New York Post)

• With the backlash against media consolidation, you'd think there are no regional airplay successes. Here's one: Paula DeAnda, who got early support from KZFM-FM Corpus Christi, Texas and charted on the Radio & Records' Rhythm chart without a label. DeAnda secured a seven-album deal with Arista after getting the blessing of Clive Davis, and her album has now sold over 100,000 copies. But here's where the regional success story falters: Her manager is the radio station's program director. (Read Billboard article)

• eMusic is eyeing an Asian service. (Read Reuters article)

January 20, 2007

Saturday Business Notes, Links

• EMI has filed a $100 million lawsuit against ringtone provider Infospace. The suit alleges Infospace and its subsidiaries have miscalculated royalties, sold restricted songs and sold in territories for which they are not licensed. EMI's auditor ran the numbers and found that Infospace had underpaid royalties results from third-party sales at Verizon and US Cellular web sites. The final straw was probably when Infospace touched a restricted, Beatles-related song, John Lennon's "Imagine." (Read article at Hollywood Reporter)

• Spiral Frog, which is almost set to launch its ad-supported P2P business, just sacked CEO Robin Kent. Could this delay yet again the service's launch? (Read post at The Key blog, via paidContent)

• News from MIDEM: The launch of Merlin, the world's first globa new media rights licensing agency. Founded by member groups like Beggars Banquet, K7, Tommy Boy and Naive, Merlin is meant to facilitate licensing to the new generation of websites like YouTube and MySpace. (Read article at Billboard.biz)

• Digital distributor The Orchard inked a deal with digital jukebox company TouchTunes Music. Its The Orchard's first licensing deal with a digital-downloading jukebox company. Basically, that really cool digital jukebox just got better. (Read press release)

• SoundScan International has added over-the-air full-track digital download sales from a number of mobile operators in Europe -- Vodafone in Spain and Ireland, 3 Mobile in Denmark and Sweden, TDC in Denmark and from Telenor in Norway. (Read press release)

January 19, 2007

Friday Morning Business Notes, Links

• EMI named to new top executives yesterday. JF Cecillon will become chairman and chief executive of the newly established EMI Music International unit, which will oversee Asia, Latin America and Australia and New Zealand. Ian Hanson was promoted to to the global role of chief operating officer of EMI Music. Both will report directly to Eric Nicoli, the executive chairman of EMI Group was named CEO of EMI Music. Nicoli seems to want to be very hands on with the underporming U.S. units; North America business will report directly to Nicolo. (Read article at Billboard.biz)

• While we wait for legit P2P service Qtrax to arrive, parent compay Brilliant Technologies has named Andrew Nibley to a newly formed advisory board. Nibley is currently Chairman and CEO of Marsteller and formerly was the head of GetMusic, the online music service founded by BMG and Universal Music Group in 1999. More advisory board members will be announced shortly. (Read press release)

• Hartmut Ostrowski was named CEO of Bertelsmann, parent of BMG Music. Ostrowski follows Thomas Middelhoff. (Read article at BusinessWeek.com)

January 16, 2007

Tuesday Morning Business Notes, Links

• EMI and Chinese Internet portal Baidu announced an ad-supported music streaming service. Baidu will set up a dedicated "EMI Music Zone" that will offer the entire EMI Chinese roster free of charge. In return, reports Bloomberg, EMI will drop its appeal on a lost lawsuit over copyright infringement claims. This agreement is the first of its kind for a major label and a Chinese company and goes to show a good licensing deal trumps a lawsuit any day of the week. (Read article at Billboard.biz and Bloomberg)

Music Nation raised $5.5 million in first-round funding. Music Nation is a nationwide, online music video competition -- an online "American Idol" -- with an advisory board filled with major label executives such as Charlie Walk (Epic Records) and Terry McBride (Nettwerk). It was founded in April 2006. (Read post at paidContent)

• Bertelsmann, parent company of BMG Music, may name its new chief executive this week. (Read article at Bloomberg)

• Unsubstantiated rumor of the day: A Beatles fansite has a report from an "unnamed source" that an agreement has been reached between Apple Corp and Apple Inc that will put the Beatles's recent mashup album, Love, on iTunes. (Read article at Macworld)

• Whil the Beatles aren't yet at iTunes, but there may be a Beatles-themed performance in this season's "American Idol." Executive producer Ken Warwick says the show has permission from Sony, the owner of the publishing rights. Certain songs, though, have been deemed off-limits by Sony. (Read USA Today article)

• An op-ed at Billboard takes the Grammy Awards to task for eliminating the female rap category. (Read article at Billboard.biz)

EMI Restructures Debt. Acquisition Questions Abound

An AFX report quotes a major EMI shareholder as saying there is an "outside chance" Warner Music Group could increase its bid for faltering EMI. Last year, WMG tendered a bid of 320p (£2.5 billion) back in June, which EMI rejected.

But EMI may be preparing to rebuff all but the most generous offer. Analysts see EMI increasing its debt load. It is said the move is intended to make EMI less attractive to a buyout, and would facilitate a split of the recorded music and publishing divisions. The title of the Financial Times article, "EMI Puts Up To Shut Up Barbarians," indicates the moves are intended to keep away potential acquirers...though it looks a bit like smoke and mirrors at this point.

Standard Life Investments, a 2.6% shareholder, said the market was "skeptical on the ability of the new management to deliver." That would be the latest dig at EMI Group chief Eric Nicoli, who appointed himself chief executive after sacking executives Alain Levy and David Munns on Friday.

Just a few days ago, one investor described a belief that Warner Music Group could be in EMI's future. Taken from a an article by The Times' Paul Durman:

"'Nicoli might have been saved but he shouldn’t get too comfortable — he’s the only constant in this sorry mess. It’s extraordinary but he’s been given another life. I suppose we are waiting for Warner and it’s better to have someone running the company when that deal comes along rather than nobody.'"

January 15, 2007

Monday Morning Business Notes, Links

• The Times Online offers a guestimate of EMI's upcoming restructuring. "About 900 of the group’s 6,600 staff are expected to lose their jobs as EMI seeks to save £110m in overheads." (Read article at Times Online)

• EMI's Eric Nicoli calls "a million miles away from the mark" a report of a planned management buyout of EMI's publishing division. (Read article at Forbes.com)

• Digital Music Group, Inc. has acquired the rights to distribute about 200 hours of video content. The company does not expect "meaningful" revenue from the videos, which include episodes of "Hoppalong Cassidy," the "Master of Poker" series and "The Mr. Bill Show." (Read press release)

• Sugar Hill Records is leaving Durham, North Carolina and will relocate to Nashville, where it will operate with another Welk Music Group-owned label, Vanguard. As a result of the cost-cutting move, most of the label's nine employees will be laid off. (Read article at The News & Observer)

• Koch signed deals to distribute Bodog Music, Syntax Records, Indianola Records and upstart Latchkey Records. (Read article at Billboard.biz)

• Robert Hillburn interviews Clive Davis for the Los Angeles Times. "The mistake people make about 'American Idol' is that they think the show itself is enough to make anyone a bestseller, so there is no creativity involved. But the show's exposure is only worth about 350,000 to 500,000 record sales for an artist. To go beyond that, you have to have hit songs to get on the radio." (Read article at Los Angeles Times)

January 13, 2007

Report: EMI Could Be On Selling Block

Thanks to EMI, the usually slow post-holiday period is a thrill a minute. Today, the New York Times' Jeff Leeds reported that EMI may be packaging itself for a sale.

"Analysts widely criticized the shift of (EMI Group chief Eric) Nicoli to a more operational role. Although has led EMI since 1999 but has no direct experience creating or marketing music. Many said they viewed the ouster of Mr. Levy as a precursor to a radical reorganization of the company and a new drive to explore a sale or merger."

I wonder why EMI would self-inflict the restructuring plan before a sale when its eventual owner would certainly put forth its own cost-cutting plan according to its vision for the future. If EMI merged with another company -- namely Warner Music Group -- its restructuring would take a different form than if carried out as a standalone company.

Bottom line: The executive change and restructuring are needed whether or not EMI is dressing itself up for a possible suitor.

January 12, 2007

Comments On EMI's Restructuring

Investors and analyst react to EMI's executive change and restructure plans. Common themes: Surprise that Levy was ousted, little faith in Nicoli, belief that EMI had management problems, and cost structure was too large given the industry's health.

Financial Times: EMI shareholders voice doubts over changes. "'I don’t see how Eric Nicoli can be seen as the man to turn this business around,' one of the company’s 10 largest shareholders said."
Financial Times: EMI moves to get back on track. "Implicit in the EMI announcement is an admission that the company has failed to change fast enough to match the rapid shifts in its marketplace, that costs remain bloated, and that an old guard respected for its deep relationships with artists may not have what it takes to prosper in the era of iTunes, MySpace and YouTube."
Times Online: "Mr Nicoli should take responsibility for his record and resign."
Hits: "This news was greeted with skepticism around the industry, with former Warner Music Chairman and current EMI consultant Roger Ames widely viewed as the logical person to be given the job of making the company competitive."
Associated Press: " Simon Wallis at Bridgewell Securities said digital was only part of EMI's predicament. 'I think there are questions about the management," said Wallis, who believed Levy was moving in the right direction with his efforts to broaden the company's roster of artists. 'That's why I think his departure is quite disappointing.'"
Associated Press: "Simon Wallis, an analyst at Collins Stewart in London, said EMI's music publishing arm remains strong and cautioned investors that market share in the industry has always been volatile. 'One year's poor result does not mean that EMI Recorded Music is rotten and worthless," Wallis said. 'It is more a poor reflection on management's ability to set an appropriate cost base for their business and manage their release schedule. It also points to lousy shareholder communications.'"
Bloomberg: "'I am not surprised to see that album sales have fallen year-on-year, but I am surprised that Levy has gone,' said Patrick Yau, a media analyst at Bridgewell. 'He was credited with turning the business around three years ago.'"

EMI Shocker: Levy, Munns Out; Earnings Warning Issued

Today EMI announced the dismissal of top executives Alain Levy and David Munns (read press release). Levy had been Chairman and Chief Executive Officer since 2001. Munns was Vice Chairman. Eric Nicoli is now the Chief Executive Officer of EMI Group and is in charge of the management of EMI Music. John Gildersleeve was named Non-executive Chairman of EMI Group. Martin Stewart, CFO of EMI Group, will take direct responsibility for the management and finance function of EMI Music.

The senior management changes are part of a larger restructuring program that is expected to save the company £110 million per year. The cost of the restructuring is expected to be no more than £150 million. Where will EMI save money? From the press release: "Specific fixed cost saving initiatives will include the reduction of front and back-office overhead and an increase in shared services in both divisions and across all regions."

Unnamed EMI executives told The New York Times' Jeff Leeds that Nicoli will lead a larger restructuring that will result in significant layoffs.

EMI warned that its second-half performance has been weak and annual revenues could be down 6% to 10%. The restructuring will constrain revenue through March 2008, but EMI expects an improvement in margins.

Why the change? Well, there are the failed attempts to acquire Warner Music Group, the poor performance by Janet Jackson's last album, the hire and fire of Jermaine Durpri at Virgin and lack of growth in the U.S. market. The press release names new points of focus that will be part of the Nicoli era. Digital growth, partnerships and consumer marketing are the three that really stand out. Those are three of the lynchpins to the new music industry, and this restructuring is an admittal that EMI has failed in those areas.

January 9, 2007

EMI Mulls Its CD Copy Protection

Reuters reported yesterday that EMI is reviewing its use of CD copy protection technology but has not opted to permanently end its use.

" A spokeswoman for EMI said it had not manufactured any new disks with DRM, which restricts consumers from making copies of songs and films they have purchased legally, for the last few months.

She said the company had mostly used the system in markets such as Asia, Latin America and continental Europe but not the UK or the U.S. 'We haven't manufactured any new disks with content protection on them for the last few months,' she said. 'It doesn't mean we've scrapped content protection but we're evaluating it.'"

Ever since Sony BMG's PR/legal disaster that was a result of its copy protection scheme, labels have publicly distanced themselves from such technologies -- as they should. How ironic is it that CD copy protection is still a talking point when major labels are considering selling music in MP3 format on a larger scale? At this point, after seeing how the public has negatively reacted to the hamstrung product, a protected CD is more a matter of pride than a smart business strategy.

December 20, 2006

Wednesday Business Notes, Links

• Sony BMG settled its rootkit lawsuits brought by attorneys general in California and Texas. The company will pay $1.5 million in penalties, which really is a light slap on the wrist compared to expenses related to the various class action lawsuits around the country. (Read article at PC World)

• Changes at Blue Note Records, and oddly enough for this time of year there are no layoffs. Meg Harkins was named VP of Marketing at Blue Note. Josh Zieman is in as VP of Marketing for the Manhattan group of labels (Manhattan, Back Porch, Higher Octave and Real World). Two received internal promotions. Saul Shapiro was upped to SVP of Sales at the Blue Note Label Group, and J.R. Rich was upped to senior VP of publicity for Blue Note. (Read article at Variety)

• The RIAA has dropped its case against Patricia Santangelo and will instead focus on her children. (Read post at Fox News)

• A federal court in Australia upheld a ruling that the operator of www.mp3s4free.net and the ISP hosting the site are guilty of authorizing copyright infringement because the site provided links to other sites at which people could illegally download music. (Read article at Smarthouse)

• EMI is consolidating its operations in Los Angeles. The company signed a ten-year lease for 1800 Highland. The 50,000 square foot office space will house staffs from EMI Music Marketing, EMI Televisa, Caroline Distribution and the west coast office of Virgin Records. (Read press release)

• The Associated Press profiles Koch Records and the financial benefits it offers rappers with an established audience. A good quote came from Miss Info of New York radio station Hot 97. On the financial aspects of signing with Koch she said, "It's like, do I want to look like I have money or do I actually want to have money? (Koch) is not like a graveyard, but more like a retirement pension." Layzie Bone of Bone Thugs-N-Harmony has a good strategy: Sign with Interscope for the group albums, which will lead to better sales for his more profitable solo albums on Koch. Last year, Koch Records's rap revenue was $40 million. Rap accounts for 80% of the label's revenues. (Read AP article)

• Music recommendation is fast becoming a hot investment. Ticketmaster bought music discovery site iLike.com for $13.3 million and will introduce it to its millions of customers. iLike.com, which was formerly Garageband.com, helps users organize, share and discover music. (Read article at Red Herring)

December 16, 2006

Saturday Business Notes, Links

• Capitol Records Nashville is releasing to all digital music stores the complete career catalog of late country star Chris Ledoux. The catalog spans thee decades and 37 years. Digital ringtones for some songs are also available. (Read article at MusicRow.com)

• Detroit rapper Trick Trick says he will sign with G-Unit Records in early 2007 and have an album out as early as July. Trick Trick was formerly with Universal Motown. (Read article at SOHH)

Insound.com now sells digital downloads. Only complete albums are sold, priced at $8.99 or $9.99. Files are 192kbs MP3. A quick glance at the indie rock offerings revealed a catalog that is also available, for the most part, at eMusic. (Via Digital Audio Insider)

• Dennis Romero, aka, Danceblogga, has an article on dance-oriented digital download store Beatport. It sells unrestricted, CD-quality .wav files for prices between $1.99 and $2.49 per track. (Read article at LA City Beat)

• Wired reviews applications that organize MP3 tags. (Read article at Wired)

December 15, 2006

Friday Business Notes

• CBS Corp. is relaunching CBS Records. Ed Christman reports the label will start with three artists and have eight by the end of the year. The three artists currently signed to the label are Senor Happy, Will Dailey and P.J. Olsson. Jack Sussman, EVP of specials, music and live events for CBS Entertainment, will oversee the operation. Its strategy will be to promote its artists through CBS television programming. Digital downloads will be sold at cbsrecords.com and iTunes and other online stores, and CDs will be printed if digital sales are strong enough to merit it. (Read article at Billboard.biz)

• Axl Rose has left manager Merck Mercuriadis. One main reason given by Rose is the oft-delayed album Chinese Democracy will not be out by the end of the year. (Read article at Hits)

• Standard & Poor's on EMI: "EMI's announcement ending buyout talks removes the group's financial risk profile from the immediate threat posed by a potentially highly leveraged bid, against debt protection metrics that are already stretched for the ratings. Nevertheless, we are concerned that EMI's top management--but not necessarily its divisional management--might continue to focus on takeover activity." (Read article at Reuters)

• RIP Ahmet Ertegun, co-founder of Atlantic Records. (Read article at Los Angeles Times, read interview at Slate)

December 14, 2006

EMI and Last.fm Launch User-Generated Music Map

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EMI and music recommendation engine Last.fm have announced an "extensive online music mapping mechanism" called Tuneglue-Audiomap. The site makes recommendations artists, websites and retailers based on the comparison of the user's listening preferences and profiles of other users. Additonal content such as artist bios and site links will be given for EMI artists. (EMI artists really stand out. Other artists are represented by black circles while EMI circles are glowing with rainbow colors.)

Tuneglue uses a visual map to express connections between similar artists. Related bands -- or nodes -- are connected through spokes. Each related band can be expanded to show its related bands, which then show interconnections with other bands on the page. Users can scroll through artist albums and purchase each at Amazon.co.uk.

Music recommendation and social networking is poised for big growth in 2007. Music recommendation in particular is coming out of its early phase and can add value to existing services. MSN Radio is now being powered by music recommendation engine Pandora. Microsoft may offer commissions for sharing music. Nokia has a music recommendation based on the picks of independent record stores around the world.

Extra credit reading:

BusinessWeek.com profiled Last.fm last month. "With 15 million unique users a month, 150,000 band biographies, and an amazing 65 million songs listed in its database, Last.FM has attracted the attention of big money. Last spring, Geneva-based Index Ventures made an investment in the company that it will describe only as 'less than $5 million.'"
• Today The Guardian has an article on Last.fm and other Web 2.0 music services.

EMI, Permira Talks Are Off

Private equity firm Permira has ended acquisition talks with EMI. In its press release, EMI said it "has not received an offer that fully reflects the prospects for and value of the company and which it could recommend to shareholders." The press release did not mention Permira by name, but it is widely believed the hopeful acquirer was Permira. The collapse of the bid dropped EMI shares almost 10%, their biggest decline in two years.

EMI is thought to be looking for a bid in the range of 330 pence to 350 pence per share. Shares dropped to 268 1/4 today. A source told Reuters that Permira has no plan to come back with a new offer in the near future. Bloomberg pointed out it was Permira's fifth failed bid attempt of 2006.

All eyes are still on Warner Music Group for an acquisition or, less likely, a merger. Many analysts feel a combined WMG-EMI offers the best possible cost savings and the only cost savings that merit a sale of EMI.

Thursday Morning Business Notes, Links

• EMI will buy out shares of Toshiba-EMI, a Japanese joint venture EMI has with Toshiba Corp. The company was created as Toshiba Music Industries Co. in 1960 and changed its name to Toshiba-EMI Ltd. in 1973. (Read article at Reuters UK)

• As mentioned yesterday, Verve Music Group downsized. It was be under the Universal Music Enterprises umbrella. Variety's Phil Gallo reported that Verve GM Nate Herr will be in charge of day-to-day chores. Staffs at Verve's sub-labels, such as Verve Forecast, will not get pink slips, he wrote. What really stood out in the article is the section of Forbes.com in which is was placed: Tech. The URL places it in the digital entertainment section of the website. Verve, tech? CDs must not be newsworthy. (Read article at Forbes.com)

• Changes at Warner/Chappel: CEO Richard Blackstone will become an advisor to Warner Music Group chief Edgar Bronfman, Jr. and assist with the company's global expansion strategy. David Johnson, EVP and general counsel at WMG, will replace Blackstone. (Read article at Reuters)

• The Rolling Stones' "A Bigger Bang" tour, with $437 million in gross receipts, was the top tour of 2006. Madonna's Confessions tour was second at $197 million. (Read article at Billboard.biz)

• Devine Entertainment Corporation signed a deal Sony BMG to distribute its "Marsalis on Music" DVD series. (Read press release)

• The Who's Pete Townshend will give the keynote address at the 2007 SXSW conference in Austin, Texas. SXSW will run from March 9-18. Music runs from March 14-18. Townshend's speech is set for March 14 at 6:30pm. (Read article at Retuers,
SXSW blog post)

• An article on brick-and-mortar music retail in the Twin Cities. Independent retailers say CD sales are down about 10% this year. (Read article at StarTribune.com)

• Seen yesterday on the History Channel: during a show, an announcement in the bottom right corner that read, "Now available at iTunes." Now that's good advertising.

December 12, 2006

Tuesday Morning Business Links, Notes

The Financial Times reports EMI has hired a third investment bank to advise on a potential deal with Permira. It is a sign a deal could be finalized soon, maybe this week. (Read Reuters article)

• Forrester takes the iPod down a notch. Analyst Josh Bernoff: "The iPod is not necessarily a machine for generating revenue for the music industry." He has found that iTunes' rapid expansion has slowed (as has digital sales in general), which echoes worries by music executives around the world. (Read article at Globe and Mail)

• The holiday layoffs continue. House of Blues layed off 79 people post-acquisition by Live Nation. (Read article at Billboard.biz)

Hits reports on more structural changes at Sony: Columbia Records' promotions staff is now organized by "national specialist cells by format." (Read post at Hits Rumor Mill)

• An IDC report on mobile music services are not connecting with consumers. One of the main reason is prices, which are seen as too high. While SMS (short message service) is popular, only about 20% of respondents have purchased a ringtone and only 10% have purchased either a graphic, wallpaper or game. (Read post at Playlist)

J. Valentine, known for a sound described as "R&Bay" (rhythm and bay) has signed with J Records. His album will be out in early 2007. Production was handled by Scott Storch, Cool & Dre, The Underdogs, Dre & Vidal, Polow Da Don, Needles and The CityBoyZ. Among the guest artists are E-40, Keak da Sneak,Bailey and Keri Lynn. (Read press release,, via Kings of A&R)

• Sony Music Studios unveiled Sony Music Studio Internet Mastering, an Internet-based mastering service that will professionally master four songs per project at a cost that starts at $99 per track. (Read article at Mixonline.com)

• A few bits from yesterday's FCC media ownership hearing in Nashville. The Hollywood Reporter has a good overview. Radio Ink has excerpts from introductory remarks from Chairman Kevin Martin and Commissioners Michael Copps and Jonathan Adelstein. The FCC website has the full texts of their remarks (read PDFs of Martin, Copps and Adelstein).

December 9, 2006

Saturday Business Notes, Links

• Short of any reaction to the following news, this could be the last Tower Records bankruptcy post: A judge approved bonuses for two top Tower Records executives, CFO Rebecca L. Roedel and corporate secretary Nicolas Thakar, who remain at the company. The amounts of the bonuses were not disclosed. The AP reports bankruptcy records show Roedel collected almost $426,000 in the 12 months prior to Tower's filing for bankruptcy. (Read AP article)

• Garage rock evangelist Little Steve has strated his own record label. Wicked Cool Records has a direct-to-retail sales strategy (the Forbes.com article mentions a deal with Best Buy and six initial releases to the chain) and a "unique" 50/50 profit-sharing arrangement with its artists. The label's first release will be Davie Allen's Fuzz For The Holidays on December 14th. (Read article at Forbes.com)

• Beyonce has joined a select group of female artists. In 2006, she became the only the second woman to replace herself at #1 as a songwriter (first "Grillz," then "Check On It"). She is tied with Diane Warren for third on the list of female songwriters with #1 hits ("Irreplaceable" is her ninth). There is one title that Beyonce has all to herself: At 13 letters, "Irreplaceable" is the #1 song with the longest, one-word title. (Read article at BIllboard's Chart Beat Chat)

The Sacramento Bee has a fantastic three-day series titled "To Live and Rap in South Sac." Articles, photoessays and podcasts document South Sacramento's rap scene and some of its biggest artists (Brotha Lynch Hung, Zigg Zagg, BeGee, Young Meek, Pain, First Degree the M.E. and Big No Love).

The Warner/EMI/Private Equity Threeway

Warner Music Group wants EMI. Private equity firms want EMI. EMI wants Warner Music Group. Private equity firms already have ownership in WMG. Offers have been made and rejected. Everybody is looking for signs that European regulators will block or allow an acquisition. Any transaction will have a huge impact on the composition of the music industry, artists and employees.

Since yesterday there have been some new developments:

• Today the New York Post reported Warner Music Group has resumed merger talks with EMI. Though WMG's Edgar Bronfman said just days ago that talks were off until European Union regulators shows their hand, those within WMG are predicting a smooth regulatory road. "From our perspective, we're not sure the regulatory issues are a show-stopper," a source told the Post. The article points out that even if private equity takes EMI, WMG could still go after EMI's recorded music business. (Read article at New York Post).

• The head of investment at Insight Investment, which owns six percent of EMI's shares, told The Times the an acceptable price is 400 pence per share, or about £3.2 billion ($6.26 million). WMG's rejected bid earlier this year was 320 pence per share. "This is an exciting business, because of the potential for consolidation if the regulators allow it to happen." (Read article at Times Online)

• Regulations will soon shed some light on whether or not they would allow an EMI/Warner Music Group merger. Yesterday, EU officials launched an antitrust probe and announced a decision on a Universal Music Group purchase of BMG Publishing would be handed down by April 27, 2007. An approval would combine the numbers three and four music publishing companies. Impala, the coalition of independent record labels, opposes the merger and believes it would be harmful. An EU ruling, expected this summer, on the annulled Sony BMG merger would offer a better indication of regulatory hurdles EMI and WMG could face. (Read AP article)

December 8, 2006

Report: EMI Close To Accepting Bid

The Wall Street Journal reported today that last night EMI was close to being acquired by European private-equity group Permira. The deal was not finalized and could fall through. (Read Reuters article here.) EMI has not yet released a statement.

From Forbes.com: "Tread softly; the transaction has apparently not been finalized and could still fall apart at the seams. The market likes it, though. EMI was up 7 pence (13.8 cents), or 2.44%, to 293.5 pence ($5.75) in morning trading in London." Bloomberg's second update has the increase to 9.25 pence to 295.75 pence.

The Times Online called it "The Deal of the Decade" and theorizes about how Permira could help with a Warner Music Group acquisition, since that's where all those beloved synergies reside. "...EMI could do with some muscle to help it pull off the Warner deal, so if Permira is willing to double up, then the combination could be interesting," wrote Dan Sabbagh. He added the obvious statement, "Private ownership could also help EMI execute a more radical restructuring." Help. Mandate. Whatever.

Friday Morning Business Links, Notes

• Sony Urban will be folded in Columbia, and Lisa Ellis was named Executive Vice President, Sony Music Label Group. Hits has the full text of an email accouncement from Howard Stringer. (Read article at Hits or this one at Billboard.biz)

• Phil Quartararo, EVP of EMI Music North America, is leaving to start his own strategic marketing company. (Read article at Variety)

• Sevendust and its label, 7Bros, have partnered with Warner Music Group's Asylum Records. Alpha is slotted for a March 6, 2007 release date. Asylum, along with Cordless and East West, is part of WMG's Independent Label Group. Much ado has been made about WMG's digital gains, but one of the real successes has been Atlantic's deals with a few indies. Downtown and Eleven Seven each had a big year, thanks to Gnarls Barkley and Buckcherry, respectively. And Cordless looks to be establishing its identity. (Read article at IGN.com)

• Snocap hired two execs, Bruce Taylor and Karin Visnick. Taylor will be the VP of marketing while Visnick will be VP of Product Management. (Read press release)

• A bold prediction: XM Satellite Radio Chairman Gary Parsons said regulations would have no reason to think a merger with Sirius would harm compeition. "We are operating in a much larger marketplace than satellite radio ... The competition is predominantly terrestrial radio," he said. (Read article at MarketWatch)

• It's that time of the year: The Hollywood Reporter laid off eight employees, including music editor Chris Morris. The publication is owned by VNU. (Read post at Variety)

• Want to hear "Thinking About You," the Norah Jones track that Yahoo! Music will sell in MP3 format? Click for your choice of WM, RA or Quicktime and prepare to get mellow.

American Scientist has a review of Chris Anderson's "The Long Tail." Classic first line: "If a book about the demise of the best seller becomes a best seller, does that undermine the book's credibility?" After reviewer Brian Hayes ran through some of Anderson's examples, he came in with some feedback. "Unfortunately, quantitative evidence supporting this proposition is hard to come by," he wrote. In the end, Hayes was disappointed by the lack of "forensic economics" but thinks "Anderson may well be right about the waning influence of the hit parade and the greater scope for ideas without mass-market appeal." (Read article at American Scientist)

December 7, 2006

Blue Note's Experiment With MP3

Other major labels have done small experiments with the MP3 formats and now EMI's Blue Note joins the small fraternity by selling a new Norah Jones single in the MP3 format. Immediately, a chorus of journalists proclaimed, "It's about time." After reading yesterday's articles and blog posts, you would get the impression that the MP3 format will usher in unparalled growth in digital music sales. Hold on. Sales growth will require more than a format change. Consumer's motivations involve price and convenience, too.

Why sell MP3s? The popular explanation is that consumers dislike DRM and are better off without DRM. The two real reasons are iTunes' dominance and digital sales' lack of growth in the middle of 2006. Blue Note's consideration of the MP3 format has nothing to do with the benefit of consumers and everything to do with making money. Consumers may end up benefitting from the MP3's greater freedom, but this is not an excercise in corporate social responsibility. EMI wants to increase sales of digital music. One possible way of doing this is to allow the sale of MP3s, which the majors have not done only with isolated experiments.

The main sales driver in the case is the degree to which people value the MP3 enough to shop around. Apple will be the first to brag about its digital sales record, but has success come simply in spite of DRM? Coolfer believes the average consumer does not mind DRM -- and doesn't even know exactly what it is. Today at Digital Music News, Paul Resnikof expressed the same opinion.

"Protection schemes have been blamed for dampening overall download purchases, though pricing lurks as a potentially bigger culprit. Remember that Apple sells an overwhelming percentage of paid downloads, all wrapped with its FairPlay protection system. Yes, FairPlay is a DRM system like any other, but do users really care? Probably not, especially since tracks rarely trip a usability wire within the iTunes+iPod circle."

There is, however, a (possibly small) market to be tapped. Call it the disgruntled techie segment. These consumers are knowledgeable about file formats and stubborn enough change their purchasing habits. Offer them MP3s and the segment will return to buying major label music.

Since labels do not have variable pricing, and therefore cannot price discriminate (although subscription services fill that void a bit), an option is to segment the market by desired file format. Selling MP3s fits in that strategy. Imagine a website that licenses music to sell only the Ogg Vorbis format. It would contrast nicely and probably overlap very little with consumers who won't leave iTunes regardless of the DRM.

We can look at this from a plain old distrubution standpoint. If iTunes only works with the iPod, and labels want alternate routes to the iPod, and labels are unhappy with iTunes' Rockafellerian market share, then they need to try selling MP3s at other online stores. The best way to diminish the power of one retailer is to prop up other retailers.

Just how much can MP3 offerings at a store not named iTunes succeed? Let's look at the two biggest MP3 experiments to date. Jessica Simpson's "A Public Affair" single and Jesse McCartney's Right Where You Want Me don't appear to have changed the status quo. I don't know what Yahoo has sold, but McCartney's album has sold an overall 4% at digital stores (nothing out of the ordinary). There were over 530 different, customized versions of the Jessica Simpson single, and Yahoo! sold a total of 7,636 tracks, according to Soundscan. In contrast, the regular "A Public Affair" single has sold over 414,000 units. Almost all most certainly came from iTunes. If iTunes is responsible for 80% of "A Public Affair" sales, then sales of the Yahoo! MP3 version are only 2.3% of iTunes' sales of the regular single.

If consumers really want MP3s -- and the jury is out on the lengths they will go to get them -- more experiments will be needed to know for sure. Not one very six weeks, but large-scale experiments that will lead to entire catalogs being sold in the MP3 format.

Thursday Morning Business Notes, Links

Hits reports that EMI executives are "being summoned back to London and staffers being told to cut back dramatically on expenditures of all kinds." As goes the ol' rule of thumb, when you're told to ration paper clips, something is afoot. In addition, whatever is going on has caused talks with Jermaine Dupri to come to a halt. (Read article at Hits)

• Yesterday PassAlong Networks announced the beta of freedomMP3, a technology that "establishes rules-based systems to allow consumers to conveniently transfer the music to any of their other PCs and play the songs on portable digital music players, including iPods and MP3-enabled cell phones." freedomMP3 works on PCs running Windows 2000 or higher. (Read press release)

• The awaited Andrew Gowers review on U.K. copyright terms was unveiled yesterday. His recommendation, which was leaked last week, is that "the European Commission does not change the status quo and retains the 50 year term of copyright protection for sound recordings and related performers' rights." (Read article at Billboard.biz)

• Gracenote has hit for the cycle -- deals with the five major publishers and some major indies -- by inking deals with Warner/Chappel and EMI. The deals add the lyrics of those companies to the Gracenote Lyric catalog. It expects to have the first publicly-available lyric service in early 2007. Online music stores, mobiles providers, search engines and consumer electronics manufacturers will have legal access to the catalog of lyrics. (Read press release)

• Qtrax nears and Brilliant hires another exec, Rick Riccobono as Executive Vice President Digital Rights Management. (Read press release)

• Virgin Records puts on a concert for tweeners at Whyville.com. (Read article at Clickz.com)

• A profile of record label Stones Throw, home to Peanut Butter Wolf, Madlib, Aloe Blacc and many others. (Read article at LA Weekly)

December 6, 2006

Wednesday Morning Business Notes, Links

• JupiterResearch has found that adoption of the iPod and other MP3 players has driven awareness of digital music products and services. That and other findings are detailed in the company's new US Music Consumer Survey, 2006. There are some good stats in the press release (and undoubtedly more in the report) but here's my favorite: Only 18% of online adults have more than 1,000 songs on their computers. (Read press release)

• Ken Parks, formerly the SVP of Strategy and Business Development at EMI, was hired by Brilliant Technologies to be the Chief Operating Officer. Brillaint is preparing to launch Qtrax, an ad-supported P2P music service. (Read press release)

• IODA scored a good one with the additional of ATO Records to its roster of digitally distributed labels. The label was founded by Dave Matthews and his manager. Its roster has David Gray, My Morning Jacket, Gomez, The Whigs and others. Also new to IODA are Barnaby Records, Blind Pig Records, Estatic Peace and KOCH Records. IODA counts over 40,000 new tracks in the last six months. (Read press release)

• Asylum Records signed rapper Freekey Zekey to a multi-million dollar deal -- just days after he got out of prison. The deal, he said, "took two minutes." Better check the fine print. A mixtape will precede the Asylum/Diplomat Records debut that is slated for March or April of 2007. (Read article at All Hip Hop)

• How MySpace and YouTube are changing the careers of musicians in Missoula, Montana: Booking their own shows, virtual tours, homemade videos and networking with other bands. "It forges a nice community… that enables us to hear each other’s music," said one artist. Great article. (Read article at New West)

Bronfman On EMI, Future Of Mobile Music

Edgar Bronfman Jr., Warner Music Group chairmand and CEO, had a lot of sound bites at the Credit Suisse First Boston Media & Telecom Week conference in New York yesterday, as reported by the Variety.

On a merger with EMI, Bronfman said no talks with EMI would resume until the EU's ruling on the Sony BMG merger gives the companies an indication that a WMG/EMI merger would also be approved. (In the meantime, EMI has been in talks with private equity groups.)

Bronfman is bullish on mobile music. "The distinction between download and mobile will go away," he said, predicting a "seamless integration" between personal computers and handsets. The growth of mobile music will mean more competition for iTunes. "Our distribution won't be as focused on a single customer in two to three years as it is today," he said.

December 4, 2006

EMI To Say No Thanks

Today the Times Online reports that EMI will reject as too low the £2.5 billion bid from private equity firm Permira.

"Permira could make an offer of 310p per share within days, but EMI is thought to want at least 350p per share. The anticipated 310p offer is higher than Friday’s closing price of 290p but below the 320p that EMI was offered by Warner Music four months ago."

From yesterday's Sunday Times:

"A number of fund managers are encouraging EMI to reject a bid and take on further debt in addition to the £1 billion it already has. But Nicoli has to measure whether this would entail EMI taking on an inappropriate level of risk for a public company."

December 3, 2006

EMI and The Private Equity Effect

Today the Times Online's John Waples wrote about private equity's effect on EMI. The crux of it all is that private equity knows that to cut is to cure. EMI, he wrote, is too afraid to really cut.

"Public companies have been sold too cheaply to private equity and the value debate needs a wider airing and deeper analysis. There is no secret to what private equity can do when it takes over public companies. EMI should now show what the value benefits would be if EMI took the same route as a private-equity group, but stayed as a public company.

If the private-equity route is to refinance debt (which now stands at £1 billion), increase borrowings against the publishing cashflow, break up the business, rationalise back-office functions and push through a round of redundancies, EMI must mimic the same model and show the costs and benefits.

Only then can a shareholder be equipped with sufficient knowledge to weigh up the benefits of being taken over.

Over the past four years Nicoli’s team has taken out £200m of fixed costs and culled 40% of the workforce against a backdrop of a 25% fall in sales. Private equity’s trick is to speed everything up. It is ruthlessly efficient and prepared to take a short-term earnings hit to achieve higher long-term growth."

EMI has made significant cuts over the last few years. Companies, though, sometimes have a tendency to think small, incremental cuts are making significant improvements when all along a major overhaul has been needed. This may be compounded by EMI's self image as an artist-friendly employer, the good guys in a tough industry. Waple brings up a great point. Private equity would be cold, calcuating and efficient. If private equity believes it could extract EMI's value, why can't EMI extract EMI's value?

Sunday Business Notes, Links

• Changes at EMI. The Blue Note Label Group was named the jazz repertoire center for EMI Music worldwide, a function previously centered in London and partly handled by EMI Classics Centre. Josh Lerman was named VP of International and will be responsible for marketing jazz on a global basis for all labels under Blue Note. (Read article at All About Jazz)

• Universal Music Group is replacing defective copies of Kiss Alive! 1975-2000 sold at Best Buy that did not contain two bonus tracks. (Read article at Blabbermouth)

• An article on gospel, which is selling well in 2006. (Read Boston Globe article)

• UMG's Fontana India label, though Fontana Distribution, will release digital versions of over 400 previously unreleased titles from its catalog of Indian music. (Read article at Glamsham)

November 30, 2006

Thursday Morning Business Notes, Links

• EMI shareholders are "close to revolting," a source told the NY Post. "The only time the stock appears to move is when deal rumors surface." And those synergies that make a merger with Warner Music Group so attractive? One "music industry exec" says EMI has more fat to trim. "The restructuring they have gone through have been incremental because management is carrying them out. EMI's costs are still bloated and it doesn't have to be that way. Private equity cuts costs with a whole different mind-set." (Read article at New York Post)

• So who is going after EMI? Two dailies have named different private equity groups. (Read article at Hits)

• EMI is offering the upcoming Lily Allen single, "Littlest Things," in the MP3 format. The list of major label experimentations with MP3 is a short one. Only Jessica Simpson and Jesse McCartney come to mind; both were sold at Yahoo Music. Labels have been far less shy about giving away MP3s for promotional purposes. This kind of experimentation is good and necessary. There's not such thing as a swift sea change in the entertainment business, so guinea pigs and always needed. (Lily Allen store, via Hypebot)

• UMG's Doug Morris interviewed by Reuters. On ad-based models: "Whatever brings in enough money to protect our artists and protect the creative people are going to support." On lawsuits: "The idea of the lawsuit was to put an element of risk into a person like me who was jimmying the phones when I was 18 years old." (Read article at Reuters)

• The European Union will take a closer look at Universal Music Group's purchase of Bertelsmann's music publishing unit. (Read Billboard.biz article)

• An Ipsos survey found American consumers are well aware of over-the-air download options but few have compatible phones. A solid 71% know OTA options exist, 14% have phones that can handle such downloads and a mere 4% (and rising) have shelled out for an OTA download. (Read at Ipsos, via Digital Music News)

• Talk in Australia about sagging music sales. "Digital ain't filling the void," said one industry veteran. "If people are sitting back waiting for iTunes to fix it, they're in strife," said another. (Read aritlc at The Age)

• eMusic's change in subscription prices are changing -- for the better -- the per-track price received by at least one artist. (Read post at Digital Audio Insider)

November 28, 2006

EMI Gets A Bid

Big news this morning about a private equity bid approach for EMI. The company acknowledged it has received a bid of £2.5 billion ($4.87 billion) from an unnamed party of multiple private equity firms.

The Financial Times reported today that private equity firms Kravis Kohlberg Roberts and Goldman Sachs are in talks with EMI.

In June of 2006, EMI rejected a £2.5 billion by Warner Music Group.

Update: Kate Norton at BusinessWeek.com has an insightful and, I'd say, spot on article about the EMI bid. Analysts note that the cost-cutting that makes an EMI/WMG merger so attractive would not be realized if EMI was acquired by private equity firms. Where is the value? "The most likely route to value creation would be to sell off the EMI Music arm, where underlying profit from operations fell to £11.5 million from £38.3 million in the first six months."

A penny for your thoughts, Edgar Bronfman.

November 27, 2006

How Soon Is Soon?

Fortune writer Tim Arango got everybody's attention earlier today when his article "Beatles: only on iPod?" claimed Apple is "close to a deal to bring the Beatles catalog online." There's a great subtext here: Apple Corp, owner of the Beatles' catalog, has been a legal thorn in the side of Apple Computer for many years.

EMI's David Munns recently said the Beatles would be online "soon." Presumably he was not referring to Love, a George Martin-produced Beatles mashup that was released last week (and is not yet online).

Is there any other way to debut online than with the help of Steve Jobs? Apple Corp would be crazy to give an exclusive to any other download store. "It's not a surprise the Apple Corporation, which owns the rights to the Fab Four's songs, would ink a deal with Apple Computer, owner of the hottest music player in the world," said Forrester's Ted Schadler.

And it would be best to go online with a splash so everybody knows about it. Not everybody knows the Beatles aren't currently on iTunes. Wrote Melly Alazraki at Blogging Stocks: "Until I read this article, I had no idea one couldn't download Beatles songs from iTunes."

Sales at iTunes are slowing and could use a shot in the arm right before prepaid gift card season. The Beatles' arrival at iTunes would be more than a big media event. It would be an important, symbolic event that shows a handshake between technology and music industries. They have often acted like cold war foes. The Beatles at iTunes would be glasnost all over again.

November 23, 2006

Thursday Business Notes, Links

• Hits predicts a massive first week for Jay-Z's Kingdome Come...in the 850,000 range. All in all, it looks like abum sales are surging upward just as they do this time of year. (Read article at Hits)

• EMI Music signed a licensing agreement with mobile music company Jamba, which has launched only in Germany thus far (it is known as Jamster in other countries). Tracks will be available for downloads and subscriptions for both the PC and mobile phone simultaneously. In September of 206, News Corp. purchased 51% of Jamba. The company plans to combine Jamba with Fox Mobile Entertainment. (Read press release)

• More EMI: EMI Music UK inked a deal with PSP-Playlist to allow its catalog of music videos to be downloaded onto the Sony PSP device. Videos will sell for between £1.89 and £2.19. (Read article at New Media Knowledge)

• The FCC will finance ten studies on media ownership: How People Get News and Information, Ownership Structure and Robustness of Media, Effect of Ownership Structure and Robustness on the Quantity and Quality of TV Programming, News Operations, Station Ownership and Programming in Radio, News Coverage of Cross-Owned Newspapers and Television Stations, Minority Ownership (two on this topic), Vertical Integration and Trends in Ownership, Format, and Finance. (Read article at Radio Ink)

• The U.S. Copyright Office has allowed a few new exemptions to the Digital Millennium Copyright Act. One is the ability to reverse engineer the DRM on audio CDs for security purposes. All exemptions will take effect on Monday, November 27 and will last three years. Where did such an exemption come from? Why, the Sony BMG rootkit fiasco, of course. (Read article at Security Focus)

• RIP Robert Lockwood, blues artist. (Read AP article)

November 18, 2006

EMI To Release Mash-up Albums

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On November 21st, EMI will release a Beatles project called LOVE. For it, producer George Martin took tracks from all the Beatles tracks he produced and created an all-Beatles mash-up. LOVE is a collaboration between the Beatles and Cirque Du Soleil.

Another mashup album -- one that comes closer to the defintion of a mash-up that we've come to known -- will come in early 2007. EMI will release a mashup album titled Mashed. The songs are produced by Mark Vidler a.k.a. Go Home Productions (pictured). (Check out GHP's MP3 page for a bunch of mash-ups.) I have links to four songs from Mashed (high quality streams) and they're not too shabby. The project comes predictably late in the mash-up game but it does show some newfound flexibility in how major labels approach their catalogs of music. Better late than never.

"Rapture Riders" is Blondie's "Rapture" versus The Doors' "Riders on the Storm."
"Passenger Fever" is Peggy Lee's "Fever" versus Iggy Pop's "The Passenger"
"David X" is Liberty X's "Got To Have Your Love" versus David Bowie's "Let's Dance"
"Notorious Trick" is Kelis's "Trick Me" versus Duran Duran's "Notorious"

The songs aren't as club-oriented as the usual mashup. These songs are for everyday fans. Could it spark a trend? Pop music could use a new trend right now, so I hope others follow.

November 17, 2006

Friday Morning Business Links, Notes

• Entertainment retailer Trans World lost $11.4 million in the third quarter of 2006. Sales increased by 23% due to the company's acquisition of Musicland. Comparable store sales decreased 5%. Accessories sales were up 40% and electronics sales rose 41%. Trans World expects music and DVD sales to account for 40% of fourth quarter sales. (Read article at Albany Business Journal, download PDF of 8K filing)

• Mercora signed deals that will put its mobile service into over 350 sites and storefronts (ranging from CBS to Verizone). (Read post at Digital Music News)

• A story of Branson B., "hip hop's version of the Dalai Lama," and hip hop's abandonment of Cristal champagne. "A self-taught oenophile, Branson has spent years developing his own high-quality champagne and has just begun rolling it out in select venues nationwide." And he's trying to build the brand with the help of his hip hop friends. Mentioned in the article: Foxy Brown will launch a brand of sparkling wine, and Ja Rule and DJ Clue will have branded beverages as well. (Read article at Fast Company)

• An interview with EMI's CEO, David Munns. "The power lies with the consumer, and they're going to either accept some of these (business models) or not. And we don't know what they are, so I want to be in all of them." It's about time an executive reached out to the technologists. Interesting that Munns' example of the long tail in action is the fact that Pink Floyd's Dark Side of the Moon, an old album not exactly struggling for attention, is in iTunes' Top 30. Some think the long tail is all about unknown artists, but I'd but Munns' long tail is filled with EMI back catalog. (Read article at News.com)

• Bad Boy Entertainment and Block Enterprises have renewed their joint venture, which is responsible for Yung Joc, Boyz N Da Hood and an upcoming album by Boyz member Big Gee. (Read press release)

November 16, 2006

Thursday Morning Business Notes, Links

• Clear Channel agreed to a sale price of $18.7 billion. The lucky owners are private equity firms Thomas H. Lee Partners and Bain Capital, and the founding May family. Thomas H. Lee Partners and Bain Capital should sound familiar to you. They're part of the investor group that purchased Warner Music Group from Time Warner in 2004. (Read Reuters article)

• EMI warned that it may not license its content to YouTube because it was not convinced the website could respect its copyrights. Insiders say the company is holding out for a Universal Music Group-like deal: about 1% of YouTube's equity and a payment of about eight-tenths of a cent every time an EMI song is streamed. Funny how equity eases fears that previously only DRM could allay. (Read article at Times Online)

• Very related: paidContent interviewed EMI CEO David Munns at the Web 2.0 conference. Munns said a deal with YouTube should be done soon. Munns had comments about artist contracts and extended rights deals and when we can expect to see the Beatles' music online (soon). He had no comment about price negotiations with Apple. (Read post at paidContent)

• Related: Google has set aside $200 million for defending YouTube in court. (Read article at The Guardian)

• Lose a few thousand, gain a few: Nordstrom, the upscale department store, plans to sell CDs. Its goal is to be "considered a tastemaker." (Read article at Hits)

• The New York live music biz is heating up: MSG Entertainment purchased the 2,800-seat Beacon Theater in New York City. A nine-month restoration is planned for 2008. (Read article at NY1)

November 15, 2006

EMI Posts First Half Loss

Today EMI announced its results for the first half of 2006. (Read press release.) It wasn't pretty. The company recorded a loss of £30.6 million versus a gain of £36.7 million last year. The previously reported accounting scandal in Brazil resulted in a one-time charge of £9 million.

Revenue was down 4.1% (constant currency) over last year. EMI Music revenues were down 5.2% (constant currency) while EMI Music Publishing were in line with last year. Its operating profit rose 5.8%.

Digital revenues represent 8.5% of EMI's total revenues and 5.6% of the publishing division's revenue.

EMI spent £6.2 million related to the "potential acquisition of Warner Music Group."

Oddly, Reuters has an article titled "On-song Robbie, Norah boost EMI." While EMI is pubicly upbeat about its fourth quarter schedule, a Bridgewell analyst is keeping his rating at "neutral." Smart. It would take three Colplay albums -- not a Robbie Williams and a Norah Jones -- to catch up. EMI should be feeling the pressure to get the Beatles' catalog into digital stores. It desperately needs a spark, and I get the sense that the market feels the digital age will not come of age until the Beatles are online.

November 14, 2006

Tuesday Business Notes, Links

• EMI is expected to report a 55% drop in pretax profit for the first half of the year. News like is sure to fuel to the chatter about an eventual merger between EMI and Warner Music Group. (Read Dow Jones article)

• The deal-making continues: EMI Music Publishing has inked a deal with the (editor's opinion: utterly unwatchable) Current TV network that will put its music in approximately one-third of its programming. (Read article at Billboard.biz)

• Joel Klaimon was named new Senior Vice President of Promotion/Artist Development at Universal Republic. (Read article at Hits)

• Sean Ryan, former chief executive of Listen.com, laments the "label tax" imposed by Universal Music Group on sales of Zune hardware. The technologist's favorite term, "slippery slope," makes an apperance. For a change, its use actually has merit. He wrote, "I think we're running out of high margin drivers for anyone but the labels, who continue to drive alternative revenue sources." Yes. As soon as the drivers realized they are the drivers, the negotiations changed. (Read op-ed at Forbes.com)

• Prince has opened a nightclub called 321 at the Rio hotel-casino in Las Vegas and is currently doing two shows a week. (Read New York Times article)

November 13, 2006

Monday Morning Business Notes, Links

• EMI boss David Munns hinted that the Beatles catalog may go digital soon. (Read article at Times Online)

• Jeff Leeds has an article on the grants that indie rock bands are getting from their governments. Groups from Canada, Sweden, New Zealand, Australia, Scotland, Finland and Denmark are mentioned in the article. It's good money, and because they're grants they don't have to be paid back. The Figurines, from Denmark, have received more than $18,000 in 2006. Canada's Broken Social Scene has received over $140,000 over the years. (Read article at New York Times)

• A judge ruled that a defendent could challenge the RIAA's $750-per-song claim to statutory damages. (Read post at Slashdot)

• After the nightclub fire at a Great White concert in Rhode Island, music venues around the country are seeing the repurcussions. In some states, clubs are mandated to install sprinkler systems. (Read article at Pollstar)

• An explanation of Microsoft Points, which is the currency used at the Zune Marketplace. (Read post at Medialoper)

More EMI Buyout Rumors

Today The Independent contributed to the chatter about a possible buyout of EMI.

"Takeover rumours have surrounded EMI for the past few weeks. If market gossip is to be believed, its management team is working on a 320p-a-share buyout backed by private equity cash. According to the gossip, the multimillion-pound fraud at the group's recorded music business in Brazil was only discovered by directors last month because they were conducting early-stage due diligence."

November 8, 2006

Wednesday Morning Business Notes, Links

• Google is getting ready for its entry into the radio market. The company is reportedly hiring ad salespeople in most major markets, and it paying "about 50 percent more than a typical radio sales person might make." Its Google Audio Ads is the company's strategy to allow advertisers to sell radio ads in a way similar to how Internet advertisers buy ads with its AdWords system. (Read Reuters article)

• A transcript of Monday's RealNetworks Q3 2006 Conference Call. (Read post at SeekingAlpha)

• Post-Vivendi/KKR, everybody's talking about buyouts. A thought from This Is Money: "A warning last month that underlying halfyear profits will fall by almost a third to £27m after margins shrank at its recorded music arm increased speculation that a foreign bidder would soon come along and put Nicoli and his board out of their misery." (Read article at This Is Money)

Kidz Bop has had far more ramifications than previously thought. Parents will probably like this stuff more: V2 in lauching an offshoot family label called Little Monster Records. The first release, a Beatles tribute/storybook, was just released. Medeski, Martin & Wood will do an album in first quarter 2007. The newest signing is Robert Schneider (Apples in Stereo) under the name Robert Bobbert and the Bubble Machine (visit his MySpace page). (Read press release)

• The country music industry has its sights set on the Hispanic market. (Read AP article)

November 7, 2006

Tuesday Miscellany

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• If there had to be only one reason why you're glad YouTube wasn't sued into submission, it's this fantastic clip -- replayed in Zapruder-like fashion -- from last night's Country Music Awards that shows Faith Hill's outrage when Carrie Underwood won Female Vocalist of the Year. That's one for the books. Naturally, Hill said it was a joke. (Via Idolator)

• EMI Music Publishing is moving to the Chelsea Market building in Manhattan. Enjoy the crosstown bus, folks. (Read article at the NY Post)

• The media finally put two and two together; amazingly, I haven't seen the word ironic used yet, though this certainly qualifies. Word broke that Microsoft's Zune will not play protected WMA tracks purchased from the soon-to-be-defunct MSN Music store. This is old news that just hadn't been spelled out yet. Besides, given MSN Music's market share, this news directly touches few consumers. (Read article at FMBQ)

November 3, 2006

Friday Morning Business Notes, Links

• Victory Records has sued Virgin Records and parent company EMI, claiming tortious interference with contractual relations (they tried to steal away Hawthore Heights). (Read article at Reuters)

• Financial Times reported yesterday that Google is "engaged in a frantic round of negotiations aimed at persuading traditional media companies to supply their content to YouTube." Company cheif executive Eric Schmidt is said to have met with CBS, Viacom and other major media companies, "offering tens of millions of dollars in upfront payments for the right to broadcast their video content legally on YouTube." If EMI was mentioned in the article, there would have been a music slant in this post. (Read article at Financial Times)

• After the unveiling of Cingular's music subscription services, a report that all is copasetik between Apple and Cingular. (Read post at Digital Music News)

• The latest new business model: Reuters on Sellaband.com, a website that allows music fans to invest money in bands. Once a band reaches a threshold ($50,000 is mentioned, in $10 increments) it gets access to a studio and professional assistance (producer Tony Platt will work with bands). Fans gets a "free" copy of the resulting CD and "a cut of CD sales and a share in advertising revenue generated for the site." Sellaband keeps 40% of the music publishing revenue as well as all the interest from the escrow accounts that hold fan donations. At even a modest interest rate, the company could do pretty well just from the escrow accounts. The longer it takes for a band to reach $50,000, the more interest Sellaband makes. No word on what happens to fans' money when a band doesn't reach the threshold. (Read article at Reuters)

November 1, 2006

EMI Considering A Boyout, Merger Talk Resumes

Today The Independent reported that EMI is considering a buyout, which revive talks of a merger between EMI and Warner Music Group. Why a buyout? It is expected that the European Union would reject any attempted merger of EMI and WMG. Andrew Dawson explained a possible workaround:

"With the European Union likely to thwart any further attempts at consolidation in the music publishing industry, traders said that management believe that the best way to take the company forward is to take it off the public markets. ... Traders said that an offer could be made before the end of the week."

October 31, 2006

Tuesday Morning Business Links, Notes

• Universal Music Group took the lead in cutting CD wholesale prices, and it's doing the same (in Europe) with digital albums. Catalog titles, though, not new releases. The initial group will consist of 1,500 titles by such artists as Bob Marley, R.E.M. and Stevie Wonder. Prices are dropping to £6.99 from £9.99. Some UMG catalog titles are already sub-$9.99 at U.S. iTunes, though they are not part of an organized program as in this case. (Read article at Reuters)

• EMI Music Publishing is really getting into joint ventures. (See link yesterday about joint ventures on Broadway musicals.) Billboard reported EMI Group has offered a joint venture to Marty Bandier, who resigned as chairman of EMI Music Publishing yesterday. "Bandier said he would have an equity stake, according to the source. The venture would be under the EMI Group umbrella, but separate from EMI Music Publishing." If a joint venture beats a licensing fee, it can certainly beat a salary. (Read article at Billboard.biz)

• Found in an article about record label Thrill Jockey and its almost reluctant forays into digital music: Thrill Jockey is about to launch a new download store that will also host tracks by Rune Grammofon, Touch, Smalltown Supersound, Mosz, and Morr Music. The site will sell albums only, for $10 each. Read the article for a look at the other side of the industry, those labels that would prefer to stick to physical product but are being forced into digital sales. (Note: A late-night blogging session produced a fantastic typo. The original post referenced Touch & Go. The article is about Thrill Jockey. Thanks for reader Sam for pointing out the error.) (Read article at Chicago Reader)

• They may not have a ton of street cred, but the big portals can sure help make a career. Yahoo! Music will produce a music program that will be sponsored by Nissan. The show, titled "Nissan Live Sets on Yahoo! Music," will be broadcast on both the Internet and a high definition TV channel to be named later. Christina Aguilera and Incubus will be the first guests. (Read bits and pieces of an article at press release)

Sonific announced a widget for Typepad that will allow users to post free music players on their blogs. Sonific pulls from a catalog of over independent 50,000 songs. Unlike Snocap's Linx widget, which can be placed on blogs and MySpace pages, the Sonific widget does not allow for purchases. (Read press release)

• MySpace has licensed technology from Gracenote to block unauthorized uploads of copyrighted music. Wrote Louis Hau at Forbes.com: "Perhaps the most curious aspect of the MySpace-Gracenote pact is that it took so long for the News Corp. unit to put a serious filtering system in place. ... Frustration over MySpace's failure to implement a satisfactory filtering system prompted Universal Music Chairman Doug Morris to lash out at the site during an investor conference in September." (Read article at Forbes.com or press release)

• Not mentioned yesterday: Garth Brooks' five-CD, Wal-Mart exclusive CD set is out this week. Given that fact, the retail giant certainly had good timing when it declared Brooks has sold 20 million CDs in the first year of his exclusive arrangement with Wal-Mart. Oh please, Wal-Mart, become a Soundscan reporter. (Read post at Hits Rumor Mill)

EMI Licenses Dean Martin

It's still mulling over a deal with YouTube, but EMI has a licensing deal that not even deal-happy Warner Music Group has done: The music group will license Dean Martin's name, image and likeness. This comes from a deal with the Dean Martin Trust. From the press release:

"The Dean Martin/EMI arrangement is another in a growing portfolio of groundbreaking relationships EMI is forging with artists around the world to oversee non-recording aspects of musicians’ careers, such as merchandising, touring and publishing in addition to their recording careers and record catalogs, as the company has done with artists such as Robbie Williams and the rock band KORN."

These types of deals show that labels are actively looking to different revenue streams for future growth. Call it a realization that music sales can't adequately recover at the flip of a digital switch. Everybody says the industry's current model is broke. The funny thing is that many people are looking to P2P to be a quick fix. Rather than fully embrace P2P, labels are forming profit-sharing and licensing deals with an array of parties. It's less about selling music and more about asset management and innovative investments.

October 30, 2006

Monday Morning Business Notes, Links

• EMI Music Publishing has been acquiring positions in Broadway musicals. Chairman Martin Bandier explained that investing in the musicals -- and thus getting a share of all revenues -- is better than being limited to a licensing fee. There's more risk, too. (Read article at New York Post)

• Sales of 7" singles are exptected to top 1.5 million in the UK this year. That's up from 178,000 in 2001. Why the increase? "CDs and downloads are great for mainstream sales, but vinyl still represents the very essence of music," said a spokesman for HMV. "It has a mystique all of its own and is part of the mythology of rock 'n' roll." (Read article at The Mirror)

• Need to brush up on Brightcove, the online video company that just signed a deal with Warner Music Group? Here's an article. Forrester Research analyst Josh Bernoff said the company's plans "knocked my socks off." (Read article at USA Today)

• Pop-laden emo band Sherwood says it will sign with MySpace Records. (Read post at Punknews.org)

• R.E.M. and Van Halen will be on the next ballot for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. (Read article at Cleveland Plain Dealer)

October 28, 2006

Saturday Business Notes, Links

• The Future of Music Coalition filed comments in the FCC's broadcast ownership proceeding. Its stance: "Large station groups do not offer more format variety." For the long version, read the executive summary and/or the 19-page PDF.

• Victory Records will make its catalog available at eMusic starting October 31st. (Read article at Billboard.biz)

• Analyst Simon Wallis finds some positives in the EMI accounting fraud. The drop in share price exceeded the per-share impact of the restatement, which presents a good buying opportunity. Also, he believes it could have opened a door for Warner Music Group to bid on EMI. (Read article at The Independent)

• Should YouTube worry about lawsuits from media companies? Not really, wrote Columbia law professor Tim Wu. How so? In the '90s, he wrote at Slate, the Bell companies lobbied against Hollywood's requested reforms. The result was the Online Copyright Liability Limitation Act, part of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act of 1998. Section 512 (c), he claims, is the Magna Carta of Web 2.0 because it provides web companies a safe harbor. Copyright content hosted unknowingly by those companies falls under "tolerated use," a cousin of "fair use." Further, it gives media companies the dual benefits of exposure and control (in the form of "notice and take down" requests). (Read article at Slate)

• FoC Alec Hanley Bemis interviewed Pedro Winter, manager of Daft Punk and owner of Ed Banger Records. "We sell between 2,000 and 4,000 vinyls — a small amount, but still a good score for vinyls when you can’t even find record stores. They are all closing!" (Read article at LA Weekly)

October 27, 2006

EMI Says "Consumer Is King," Describes Vision Of Future

As mentioned here earlier today, EMI's Alain Levy gave a keynote speech to the London Business School at a conference called "Compelling Content: A Driver for Change." Levy's speech mentioned "the cosumer" 49 times. (Read the entire speech after the jump.) Yes, the RIAA and IFPI sue consumers, but EMI is focused on how it reaches and interacts with consumers.

After reading this, it's clear to me that Levy & Company understand the changes afoot. They have understood for years. But here's the thing: It came off like a campaign speech. There are a lot of generalities, and a good deal of self-promotiion. But, it's short on worthwhile details. Everybody knows the industry has changed. Everybody knows it's a new ballgame. Everybody knows the general path to take. Which direction to head. But nobody knows what vehicle will get them where they want to go. After reading the speech, I'm no more sure than I was yesterday that EMI has climbed into the right vehicle.

One aspect of the speech I did like: Levy has not wavered from the belief that EMI will continue to be a viable media company. He dismissed the idea that its position will be harmed by a wave of self-made stars. "We are now 18 months into the surge in user generated content, and a technology base that eases distribution of music," he said. " And how many self made stars have we actually seen? Hardly any." I couldn't have said it better myself. For every Clap Your Hands Say Yeah there are 20,000 bands that are barely better off than they would have been in the age of photocopied 'zines.

A few quotes:

• "Power is shifting everywhere from manufacturers, content providers and retailers to consumers. In the age of empowerment the consumer is king."
• "Less formally packaged content, and more people getting involved in the creation process - does that mean the demise of the media company? I don’t think so. There will always be demand for compelling content, whatever its source."
• "The new digital consumer has impacted every area of our creative process – they have changed the way we source, present and market our content in every way."
• "Over 10% of music revenue worldwide is now in the digital format and we predict digital will account for around 25% of EMI’s revenue by 2010."
• "We know from research that consumers today are overwhelmed. I challenge you to spend a day on YouTube or MySpace and find a relatively unknown band that you really like – it’s difficult to sort through."

Continue reading "EMI Says "Consumer Is King," Describes Vision Of Future" »

Friday Business Notes, Links

• "The CD is dead," said EMI chairmand and CEO Alain Levy to an audience at the London Business School. What he meant is the plain CD is no longer viable. "By the beginning of next year, none of our content will come without any additional material." Here's a good question: What makes CDs more attractive, a lower price or more content? Hard to say, honestly. If EMI is going to jazz up CD content, it's going to need more than a few videos and a screensaver. (Read article at Marketwatch)

• Just when Andy Slater's A&R efforts come into doubt, Capitol Records goes and signs Roxette for the U.S. Kings of A&R posted this, then I found an article with more details. A new album will be released on December 26th....gift certificate season.

• There's been talk on The Velvet Rope about layoffs at Sony BMG. Tower's demise means fewer employees on the payroll. Best of luck, Eddie. (Read thread at The Velvet Rope)

• Chalk up another advertising revenue-sharing agreement: Warner Music Group signed a deal with Internet TV provider Brightcove that will provide video content through ad-supported video players. The Brightcove video player requires no download. Fans will be able to put the player on websites and blogs and, I assume, MySpace pages. (Read press release)

• Music blogs are business: Word is out about Stereogum's investment deal with the Pilot Group. Financial terms are not out, but it's said that blog founder Scott Lapatine will retain creative control. Naturally. (Read post at paidContent.org)

• Through September, 2006 touring dollars are up 10.5% over last year. Attendance figures were down 1.2%. (Read article at Billboard.biz)

• For you Long Tail fans: Harvard's Working Knowledge on video sales: "Consumers can find videos online that they can't find anywhere else. And yes, there is a shift in sales to the tail—but there is also an increasing number of titles that do not sell at all." (Read post at Working Knowledge, via Digital Audio Insider)

• An interview with Steve Kaneko, Design Director, Entertainment and Devices Division for Microsoft's Zune. (Read post at Zune Insider)

October 25, 2006

EMI Accounting Fraud Overstated Revenues

Today EMI released a statement about a "one-off" accounting fraud in its Brazil division. Here's the impact to the financials:

"The company’s present assessment is that this fraud has resulted in the overstatement of EMI Music’s revenues by approximately £12m and its operating profits by approximately £9m. This revenue and profit impact will be reflected in the financial results for the six months ended 30 September 2006."

To put it in perspective, operating profit for the year ending March 31, 2006 was £250.5 million, of which £9 million is about 3.5%. Put another way, it's like KT Tunstall never existed.

October 24, 2006

Tuesday Morning Business Links, Notes

• Country star Keith Urban has pulled out of next month's Country Music Association awards. Last week Urban checked himself into rehab. His next album, Love, Pain & the whole crazy thing (Capitol Nashville), will be released November 7th. (Read AP article at Washington Post)

• John Legend has started his own record label, Home School Records. His first signing was British artist Estelle, followed by Vaughn Anthony. (Read article at Springfield News-Sun)

SoBe Entertainment has inked a deal with Fontana Distribution. SoBe is putting out Undiscovered, the debut album by Brooke Hogan (daughter of Hulk Hogan). Fontana must be happy to have an album with a track produced by Scott Storch and featuring Paul Wall. Watch "About Us" at YouTube.

• The media ownership rule review continues. The National Association of Broadcasters told the FCC that "stations must be allowed to form efficient and financially sustainable ownership structures" in order to offer "free, over-the-air service to local communities." In a nutshell, the NAB wants less restrictive ownership regulations if it is going to follow the FCC's goals for localism and diversity. (Read article at Radio Ink)

• The Spanish government approved Universal Music Spain's purchase of Vale Music, the country's largest independent label. The label, which makes dance music compilations, has an 11% market share. A month-old article said the court set a condition on the acquisition: Vale and Universal "have to do away with previous no-competition pacts." (Read article highlights at Billboard.biz)

• Coincidence of the year: The week after Tower starts to liquidate, the iPod turned five years old. Wrote tech journalist Arik Hesseldahl: "The iPod soon worked with Windows PCs, and by 2003 the iTunes Music Store debuted and revolutionized how music was sold. If you doubt that statement, go visit your local Tower Records store -- if it's still open." (Read article at BusinessWeek.com)

• EMI South Africa star Leba Mathosa died in a car crash near Johannesburg. (Read article at Times Online)

October 22, 2006

Dupri Out At Virgin

102206_Dupri.JPGVirgin Records's urban music didn't take much of a hit late Friday when Jermaine Dupri was dismissed by the label. Or maybe he quit. Same difference. The label has always been a chronic underachiever in urban music, as has been EMI. There's nowhere to go but up for label head Jason Flom.

Dupri is the boyfriend of Virgin recording artist Janet Jackson, whose recent album is the last on her Virgin contract. It is not selling up to expectations. Dupri's So-So Def is distributed by Virgin. Dem Franchise Boys, Da Brat and Daz Dillinger did not do much for Dupri's legacy at Virgin. Dem Franchise Boys' February release On Top Of Our Game has sold 590,000 units, but Dillinger' month-old So So Gangsta has sold a mere 51,000.

October 21, 2006

Saturday Miscellany

• Yoko Ono has sued Capitol Records for $10 million plus interest for "willfully and knowingly underreporting royalties." EMI calls it "understandable given the complex nature of recording contracts." (Read AP article)

paidContent.org is almost a week late with its redesign, but it looks great. Earlier this year the digital technology blog received an investment from Greycroft Partners. Yes, blogs are real businesses.

• Finally, Guns N' Roses buzz that's actually related to an actual new song. The band's "Better" is being used in a 30-second Harley-Davidson ad. (It's not yet on the Harley website.) Here's the entire song at YouTube (while it lasts).

New York magazine gets some quotes from New York music legends on the demise of Tower Records. Glenn Branca called later-era Tower "a bad supermarket that only sold food that had no nutrients." Moby described post-downloading Tower as "a few forlorn employees and tumbleweeds blowing by the dust-covered CDs." Check the picture of the 4th and Broadway Tower at the top of the page -- it was the place to be in 1981. (Read article at New York Magazine)

• A discussion for you musicologists: De La Soul's use of Hall and Oates' "Say No Go" wasn't "ironic distance." The group just liked the song. (Read post at Dial "M" For Musicology)

October 19, 2006

Piracy Goes Mainstream

Yesterday the Wall Street Journal ran an article on the alliance betweeen Jay-Z and Coca-Cola that puts promotional material in pirated tracks that are passed around P2P networks.

"By inserting promotional material into the decoy files, and then planting those files prominently on file-sharing sites, record labels and other marketers can turn what is now an antipiracy tool into an advertising medium. 'The concept here is making the peer-to-peer networks work for us,' says Jay-Z's attorney, Michael Guido. 'While peer-to-peer users are stealing the intellectual property, they are also the active music audience,' and "this technology allows us to market back to them.'"

This may have people scratching their heads and wondering how labels -- and sponsors -- can use piracy with one hand while they're fighting piracy with the other. Look no further than labels' embrace of -- nay, reliance upon -- (technically illegal) mixtapes to promote their hip hop artists.

It's not just Universal, which did a similar piracy campaign with Ne-Yo. Virgin Records acknowledged it is in talks with MediaDefender "about marketing options. "It's an opportunity that will hopefully lead to a better experience for the artists, the labels and the consumers," said Jason Flom.

October 17, 2006

Tuesday Morning Business Links, Notes

• First the revenue warnings, now the spin. EMI is downplaying its expected drop in revenue by saying digital revenues are growing at a healthy clip. Forbes.com thinks EMI is sending "mixed messages." Indeed. Digital growth -- a song here, a song there -- comes at the expense of CD sales -- ten or 12 songs at a time. The rates are going in opposite directions. If EMI's revenues will be down 4%, it seems the company may not have the right strategy to make up for the loss of CD sales. The bottom line could be fine, though. Revenue growth -- or at least stability -- would certainly please investors, but a stable net income would practically be cause for celebration given the tough environments the majors are in these days. (Read article at Forbes.com)

• Big ringtone news: The US Copyright Office says compositions for ringtones may be subject to a compulsory license. (Read article at Billboard.biz)

• Diddy will team up with the new Best Buy Digital Music Store to promote Play, which goes on sale today. To purchasers of an album download, Best Buy will offer the exclusive Diddy track "Come To Me" (Remix) featuring rapper T.I. CD buyers get free shipping and the exclusive track "Get Off." What are the odds that every Best Buy store in the country is going to be packed to the gills with Play? Pretty good, I'd say. (Read press release)

• More Diddy news: EMI Publishing was resigned the entrepreneur to a longterm publishing deal. (Read post at Hits Rumor Mill)

• The Boston Herald asks people, "Will shoppers care when the last record store goes out of business?" A few "it's sad" comments, and one that oddly places music in the luxury category. (Read article at Boston Herald)

• Nokia finalized its $60 million acquisition of digital music distributor Loudeye. Nokia intends to use Loudeye to broaden its mobile music offerings. The press release puts forth the company's goal: "Our vision is to enable people to access all the music they want, anywhere, anytime and at a reasonable cost." Coolfer looks forward to finding out what that "reasonable cost" will be. (Read press release)

• There's plenty of talk at The Velvet Rope about Jumaine Dupri's dissatisfaction with sales of Janet Jackson's new album 20 Y.O. One of the longest one-day threads in recent memory. There are two sides: Jermaine Dupri screwed up and should be ousted as head of Virgin's Urban department. Or, the buck stops with boss Jason Flom. Both sides seem to agree the album is weak. Post-EMI Mariah gets referenced a few times, naturally. (Read thread at The Velvet Rope)

October 16, 2006

Monday Morning Business Notes, Links

• Warner Music Group continues to show its belief in the first-mover advantage. Next licensing deal: muvee, which produces automatic editing software, will enable its users to put WMG videos and tour footage in their homemade movies. muvee charges $39.95 for its software. (Read press release)

Chicago Tribune music critic Greg Kot got out an article on the Future of Music Summit about a week after it ended. Nice enough piece, but it shows why I tend to groan when music scribes write about business. Kot wrote: "The big labels continue to lose money; record sales are down for the fifth consecutive year." Yes, revenues are down. No, not all labels have a net loss on their financial statements. Another failure of the article: Pointing to a government-subsidized Canadian band (Arcade Fire, in this case) as an example of the kind of mid-level hit that is thought to be the future of the industry. Sorry, but the future will not be subsidized. (Read article at Chicago Tribune)

• EMI announced first-half revenue dropped five percent, but contends its second-half release schedule is strong. (Read press release)

• At least some analysts are bullish on EMI's second-half release schedule. The major is hoping Robbie Williams and Norah Jones hold up a year without a release by Coldplay or Gorillaz. (Read article at This Is Money)

• Kemado Records ends its run with Hollywood, signs with RED Distribution. (Read article highlights at Billboard.biz)

• Billboard's Anthony Bruno wrote about the continued controversy that surrounds digital rights management. (Read article at Reuters)

• The 2006 Global Entertainment and Media Summit (GEMS) is scheduled for December 9 and 10 in New York City. Scheduled guests include MTV co-founder Les Garland and E! Channel co-founder Larry Namer. (More info at the GEMS website)

• RIP Freddy Fender. (Read article at Billboard.com)

October 14, 2006

Saturday Business Notes, Links

• "This has been a bad year for independents," said John Phillips of Select-O-Hits. The Memphis-based distributor is owed over $500,000 by Tower. Unlike the majors, indies are unsecured credits and are unlikely to get anything from Tower's liquidation. "That could shut some doors," said one consultant. (Read article at Sacramento Bee)

• Big promotions changes at Columbia and Epic Records. Ken Lane is out at Columbia. Lee Leipsner is in. (Read article at Billboard.biz)

Caroline Distribution will close its Los Angeles sales office in December. Three employees will be moved to an EMI office, the others will be laid off. Three sales reps from the Los Angeles office were laid off on Thursday.

• Some have likened Burnlounge to a Ponzi scheme. That term is not used in this interview. (Read article at Digital Media Wire)

October 13, 2006

Two Views Of Capitol Records

How's Capitol Records doing? It depends on who's doing the talking. Yesterday NY Post gossip column Page Six talked of a anonymous missive sent to EMI Music Worldwide chairman Alain Levy and David Munns. The letter urges the firing of Capitol president and CEO Andy Slater, complaining about "the amount of money spent on these acts who are clearly a step behind what is happening in music." A source told Page Six the letter represents "dozens" of Capitol employees.

From today's Hits Rumor Mill: "For the record, both Levy and Munns think Andy Slater is doing a good job of restoring Capitol Capitol to its former status as a super-competitive West Coast label, one that can go head to head with present-day Left Coast powerhouses Warner/Reprise and IGA." Anonymous ranters don't like his signings, but "five of the seven Capitol acts in the Top 100 were signed during his regime."

Let's look at the numbers: In 2006, Capitol has a 3.9% album share (3.1% current albums) and 1.7% digital track share. At this time last year, Capitol had a 4.0% album share (3.1% current albums) and a 1.8% digital track share.

Assuming Slater didn't pay too much for those 3.9 market share points, Capitol is in decent shape. Overall album share is down a tenth, but current albums are even with last year.

Friday Business Notes, Links

• The IFPI reports global music sales were down 6% in the first half of 2006. Digital sales were up 106% and now account for 11% of total recorded music sales. In the U.S., digital accounted for 18% of recorded music sales. Countries such as Japan and Italy have very high mobile shares (85% and 76%, respectively). In the U.S., online sales account for 64% of digital sales. (Read press release)

• Goldman Sachs lowered its EMI target price. It forecasts a drop of 6.5% for the first half of 2006 and flat sales for the year. (Read article at newratings.com)

• Navarre Corporation announced the effect of the Tower Records bankrupcy on its earnings. The company plans to take an after-tax charge of $0.03 per share for the quarter ended September 30th. Multiplied by the 29,951,497 shares outstanding at the end of June, that charge will be just shy of $900,000. (Read press release)

• The Tower.com website was purchased by Norton LLC, owner of music memoribilia site Wolfgang's Vault. (Read post at FMBQ)

• Columbia Records has asked veteran Steve Ralbovsky to be senior VP of A&R for its Canvasback Music. (Read article at Hits)

• A story on the Froncysyllte Male Voice Choir, which signed to Universal Music after being heard at a wedding by Daniel Glatman, the former manager of boy band Blue. (Read article at The Independent)

October 5, 2006

Thursday Morning Business Notes, Links

• Sony and Bertelsmann have appealed the annulment of their 2004 merger. (Read article at Reuters)

• Thomas Hesse of Sony BMG's global digital business operating group, predicts the company's digital revenues will be up as much as 70% in 2006. Speaking at the Digital Music Forum West, Hesse said Sony BMG wants to "do business with everyone" and will be "very agressive" in the digital space. Also, he predicted major growth in mobile music revenue in 2007. (Read article at Digital Media Wire)

• Canadian music television channel MuchMusic launched a music download store that uses the Puretracks infrastructure...which means it has the same look and feel (and icons) as Puretracks and Tower Records' digital store, which is also powered by Puretracks. (Read article at Mediacaster)

• At the Digital Music Forum West conference, executives from Napster, eMusic and Universal Music Group criticized the growth in closed digital music systems and the lack of interoperability between the systems. (Read post at Digital Music News)

• Yesterday's buttons and posters are today's digital accessories. EMI's Parlophone offers an MSN Themepack for the new Lily Allen album as a part of her overall digital marketing campaign. The Themepack includes custom Lily Allen emoticons, backgrounds, display pictures and winks. (Read article at E-Consultancy)

October 3, 2006

Tuesday Morning Business Links, Notes

• Citigroup is optimistic for the second half of 2006, upgrades EMI to "buy" from "hold." (Read article at NewRatings.com)

• Newsweek's Brad Stones asks of YouTube: "Is it worth a billion dollars, or is it just another company in need of a business model?" He covers the usual Warner Music Group v. Universal Music Group angle, then digs into what one analyst called YouTube's "winner's curse." (Read article at Newsweek)

• Here's a mobile music news bit that I actually find interesting: Motorola iRadio will preview J Records/Arista Records albums. The first offering is Monica's latest single, "Everytime Tha Beat Drop," and other songs from her album The Makings of Me. (Read Press Release)

• Bridge Ratings reports "sluggish" satellite radio sales, especially to the youth market. The research company has lowered its third quarter estimates for new subscriber acquisitions. (Read article at Radio & Records)

• Napster and Tower Records Japan introduced the first subscription-based service for the Japan market. NTT DoCoMo will offer the service to mobile subscribers. The service offers over 1.5 million songs. (Read press release)

• The tail just gets longer and longer: Shout! Factory will release two catalogs, Biograph (early jazz and blues) and Black Top (blues), comprising 10,000 tracks through digital distributor Digital Music Group.

September 30, 2006

Friday Morning Business Links, Notes

• Martin Bandier, chairman and co-chief executive of EMI Music Publishing, is in talks with Warner Music Group about a position with the company and is looking at other opportunities outside of EMI. (Read article at Financial Times)

• SoundExchange's list of unpaid artists has received a lot of attention over the last week. Most articles and blog posts have ridiculed the company. Here's a much more balanced article. (Read article at LA Times)

• Tower Digital is giving away a free digital track with purchase of TV On The Radio's Interscope debut, Return To Cookie Mountain. "Dirtywhirl" was recorded live at the band's Celebrate Brooklyn concert last summer. Tower talked up its digital store by saying it would leverage its physical presence and online CD store. In this case, only the online CD store is leveraged. There's no evidence that brick-and-mortar customers can get the free download. (See more at TowerRecords.com)

• UK record labels and songwriters reached a deal over royalties from online digital sales and ringtones. Songwriters will receive eight percent of revenues from each download. (Read article at Ars Technica)

• It's in the music business, not the real estate business: EMI sold the famous Capitol Records building in Los Angeles and signed a long-term lease to remain in the building. (Read article at Retuers)

• A profile on Seattle-based Light In The Attic Records. (Read article at The Stranger)

September 27, 2006

Wednesday Morning Business Notes, Links

• After news got out that Warner Music Group's Edgar Bronfman has been targeting EMI investors, shares of EMI rose 7%. At the same time, Bloomberg data indicates the perceived risk of holding EMI's bonds rose 3%, which shows an decrease in perception of credit quality. (Read article at Bloomberg)

• Network Live is gone and has parted with AOL, but its production team is going to start a new live music distribution deal with MSN called Control Room. (Read the details at paidContent)

• The RIAA's Cary Sherman testified to Congress that universities "resist taking action, or do as little as possible in order to brush off further responsibility" when it comes to P2P on their networks. (Read post at Digital Music News)

• A truce was called without as much as a press conference: Victory Records titles finally make an appearance at the iTunes Music Store. (Read post and comments at Punknews, via Idolator)

• Def Jam attempts to squash rumors that the label dropped rapper Method Man due to less-than-stellar sales. "Method Man is still part of the Def Jam family and he is currently on tour promoting his new CD," said a spokesperson in a statement. (Read article at SOHH)

• Rapper Beanie Sigel, on the other hand, says he is no longer signed to Def Jam or Roc-A-Fella Records. (Read article at SOHH)

• Study: HD radio still confusing listeners. (Read article at Radio and Records)

September 26, 2006

Bronfman Breaks The Calm, Still Going After EMI

After the EU shot down the 2004 Sony BMG merger, EMI and Warner Music Group put their merger/acquisitiion plans on ice. Things had been quiet...until The Times Online put out an article an hour ago that claims WMG's Edgar Bronfman is going after EMI shareholders in an attempt to combine the two music groups.

"This month, the boss of the New York-based music group visited London to talk to EMI investors. He is understood to have met Fidelity, a 7 per cent shareholder, and Aberdeen Asset Management, as well as holding a group session with some hedge funds that have shares in EMI. Those approached indicated privately that Mr Bronfman remained surprisingly focused on the possibility of a deal with EMI, which many investors had not expected."

Investors told The Times Online that Bronfman is optimistic about the prospects of getting EU approval on a merger.

One thing the article doesn't mention is the likely outcome -- whether it would be a merger or an outright acquisition of EMI by WMG. The popular theory has been that Bronfman would want to acquire rather than be acquired.

Extra reading: Coolfer's posts on EMI/WMG merger chatter.

September 19, 2006

Tuesday Morning Business Notes, Links

• There's a controversy brewing about a 2004 report on media ownership. Former FCC Chairman Michael Powell says he never saw the report, which found that increased media ownership decreases the amount of local news reported on local television stations. (Radio and Records)

• Amazon.com launches a "CD on demand" service today called CustomFlix that will allow independent musicians and small labels to create just-in-time CDs. The services costs a $50 flat fee for musicians and labels, plus $4.95 to $7.95 per CD. (Seattle Times)

• Napster has a secret admirer. The company announced yesterday that it has "recent third party interest in establishing strategic partnerships or potentially acquiring the company." (Press Release)

• Rising Virgin rock band 30 Seconds to Mars has left The Firm? (Kings of A&R)

• Can the Internet alone break a band? "Internet activity alone does not break a band," says the manager of YouTube celebrities OK Go. "The Internet is a great tool for reaching people and getting the word out, but it doesn't sell records and it doesn't sell tickets." (Pollstar)

• JP Morgan maintains a neutral on EMI shares, but warns of tough year-on-year comparisons and sees selling opportunities ahead. Just imagine if Robbie Williams' album was pushed to the next period. (Dow Jones)

• ZZ Top parted ways with its manager as well as its $30 million deal with RCA Records. (Starpulse)

September 15, 2006

Friday Morning Business Notes, Links

• EMI could have a problem with its upcoming Robbie Williams album. A song titled "The '90s" reportedly makes accusations against Williams' former manager, Nigel Martin Smith. The album may be delayed while EMI deals with Smith's lawyers. (Metro)

• Analysts are turning positive about XM Satellite Radio. (Radio and Records)

• A profile on the fine folks at Yep Roc Records. (The Charlotte Observer)

• More drama with Victory Records and Hawthorne Heights. Victory has filed a countersuit and warns majors labels the band has two more albums on its deal. (PR Inside)

September 11, 2006

Monday Morning Business Notes, Links

• WEA Corp, Warner Music Group's distribution arm, inked a deal with Latin label Union Records. WEA will "market and distribute select music titles" from the label's roster, which includes Juan Fernando Velasco and Danilo Parra. (Press Release)

• Digital Music Group has acquired the Digital Rights Agency for $3.2 million in cash and 420,000 shares of DMG stock. (Digital Music News)

• EMI and T-Mobile UK are testing an ad-supported music video service for mobile phone subscribers. (Forbes.com)

• Speaking of EMI, Lehman Brothers has downgraded its stock on fears of weak first half sales. (Sharecast)

• Disney's "The Cheetah Girls 2" soundtrack cashes in on the same tweeners that made "High School Musical" such a huge hit. (LA Times)

• The Boston Globe's Joan Anderman highlights four upcoming albums "that -- with a little luck -- could take the world by storm." The four artists are Lupe Fiasco, Sting, Lady Sovereign and missFlag. (Boston Globe)

• A 16-year-old girl has sued Atlantic Records over a sexually explicit video that was taken at a Buckcherry concert in October of 2005. The band wasn't signed to Atlantic until the following May, and the label says it edited the video and took out the underage girl. The Internet being the Internet, versions of the original edit can still be found. (LA Times)

• Where did the payola settlement money go? Some of it ended up funding for summer artst festivals like the Hudson Valley Bluegrass Festival. (Poughkeepsie Journal)

September 8, 2006

Friday Morning Business Links, Notes

• After Universal Music Group and Fuse failed to reach an agreement on compensation, UMG sent the cable music network a directive to remove all its videos from programming until the two reach common ground. (Hits Rumor Mill)

• A profile on the legendary London record shop Rough Trade, which turns 30 this year. (The Independent)

• Beggars drone rockers Serena-Maneesh will have its music pre-loaded on Microsoft's Zune media player (Zune Insider)

• It didn't score BMG Music Publishing, but EMI Music Publishing did sign a deal with Beyonce. She was previously with Windswept Publishing. (Billboard.biz)

• Clear Channel's board of directors approved the repurchase of $1 billion in company stock. (Radio Ink)

September 6, 2006

Wednesday Morning Business Notes, Links

• We all forgot about this, didn't we? Bertelsmann settled the lawsuit brought by Vivendi, parent company of Universal Music Group, over P2P service Napster. UMG gets $60 million and Bertelsmann admits no liability. (Reuters)

• EMI Music Publishing has inked a deal to license its music to Spiral Frog, the free, ad-supported music service that made waves last week when it signed a similar deal with Universal Music Group. (The Guardian)

• A very interesting article on former Capitol country artist Tim Murphy, California lottery winner Dennis Sanfilippo, Sanfilippo's Big 7 Recods and a belated chance at the country singles chart. (San Jose Mercury News)

• Here's a clever promotion: ATO Records is giving college students DropCards with purchases at college bookstores that can be used to download ATO artists. (Press Release)

The Wall Street Journal covered the new program from Naxos and eMusic at Borders stores. CD-sized boxes are purchased at Borders. Inside is not a CD but an access code to download the album at eMusic. And here I though digital music would bring an end to returns and breakage. (Digital Audio Insider)

• Today's digital distribution signing: Nareos has signed an agreement with The Orchard to sell the distributor's catalog on Nareos' online store, MyPeerBox. (Press Release)

• An interview with Magnatune founder John Buckman. Magnatune is an e-label with a unique business model (with, among other features, a 50/50 split with its artists and a very liberal attitude about seeding the market with free MP3s). (OS News)

September 5, 2006

EMI's Fat Joe Strategy: A Hybrid

090506_FatJoe.jpgMissing from the news a few days ago about Fat Joe's deal with Virgin was the hybrid strategy EMI will undertake to promote and distribute the rapper's Me, Myself & I album. According to the press release, Virgin will handle distribution (i.e. get the billing) while promotion will be handled by Imperial Records, the new urban incubator of EMI-owned Caroline Distribution. Imperial/Caroline may get get an exclusive on some 12" singles. The second single from the album will be the Scott Storch-produced "Make It Rain" featuring Lil' Wayne.

Imperial's GM and Senior VP, Neil Levine, was hired as Caroline's VP of Sales and given the to the urban development label. Levine founded Penalty Recordings, which was formerly distributed by Ryko.

September 4, 2006

Virgin Goes For The Avante Garde

Billboard's Todd Martens covers The Decemberists and the band's upcoming album on Capitol Records. Part of the article is about Capitol's recent moves into indie and left field music. Other than The Decemberists, who were previously on Kill Rock Stars, the label has signed Interpol (formerly of Matador) and is attempting to develop UK buzz girl Lily Allen and the Austin band Sound Team.

"I'm interseted in the avant-garde," said label president Andy Slater. Maybe the avante garde is a good strategy. Something might strike gold eventually. The label's rock roster also contains Fischerspooner, the Magic Numbers and LCD Soundsystem, all bands short of stardom but well respected in certain corners of the music world. They've done no worse than the more mainstream acts on the label. Morningwood, a slick and commercial band from New York, has gone nowhere, and the last two albums by The Vines have been big disappointments. Marjorie Fair hasn't panned out yet. The Dandy Warhols faded into near-obscurity. The Shout Out Louds, The Music and Idlewild didn't bring their home country popularity to these shores. The Redwalls haven't even approached cult status. Outside of Coldplay and Yellowcard, Capitol hasn't had a mainstream rock hit this decade. (And let's not forget about OK Go, who is poised for a breakthrough.)

Capitol's duality is striking. It is hedging its avante garde ambitions with success with R&B newcomes Corrine Bailey Rae and Letoya.

August 30, 2006

Wednesday Morning Business Notes, Links

• It's working down under: The Australian music market rose 5.6% in the first half of 2006. (Billboard.biz)

• Microsoft has released a patch to to prevent FairPlay4WM from stripping the DRM from tracks protected by Windows Media 10 and 11. (ZDNet)

• An analyst at Banc of America Securities advises, "We continue to recommend the XMSR/SIRI pair." (Radio Ink)

• AOL Music has expanded to include a la carte downloads, and videos as a part of the subscription service. Unfortunately it requires Internet Explorer for downloading and syncing. (macnn)

• A judge determines the Beatles may move ahead with their decades-old lawsuit agsinst EMI. (Bloomberg)

• Nonesuch has donated $1 million to Habitat for Humanit to aid Gulf Coast hurricane victims. The money comes from sales of Our New Orleans, a benefit released last December. (Press Release)

• There's a problem with this article on Universal's licensing deal with ad-based P2P site Spiral Frog: It assumes lawsuits and experimentation with different business models are mutually exclusive events. That's poor logic. Don't expect the RIAA's lawyers to lighten up. If anything, such licensing deals deepens the line they've been drawing in the sand for years. (Forbes.com)

August 17, 2006

OK Go Chart Shows Growth From YouTube

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This graph from Infofilter shows two things related to the band OK Go: The last two days of YouTube views for "Here We Go Again" and the Amazon.com ranking of the album Oh No. While the Amazon.com ranking has slipped slightly in the last two days, it was at an impressive #30 just two days ago when total views were a shade over three million.

In the last two weeks, album sales have risen to almost 2,500 from 457, and sales of the track "Here We Go" have jumped to almost 3,600 from just 43. These numbers aren't very impressive until you consider the album has been out since last fall and hasn't been a big priority for Capitol. The jump has come solely from YouTube exposure and the resulting press. Given a modest marketing and promotions budget, album and track sales could easily explode.

August 15, 2006

Tuesday Miscellany

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• Don't know if you noticed, but Pitchfork changed its format and really looks like a blog now. Now it's laid out in the standard three-column format, with the main column in the center, that has been popular with most blogs for the last few years. (The main page is pictured.) It might as well be called a blog. The criteria are pretty much met. Much of the content is arranged in blog-like form, with posts in the center column, links to categories on the left and additional content on the right. Very blog-like. And the site is updated throughout the day. Extremely blog-like. The news, track reviews, free downloads and best new music categories are all displayed in a standard blog format. It's less blog-like when it comes to the layout of the features and record reviews categories. Does it matter? Only to bloggers who like to obsess over semantics...and there are a few hundred thousand of them.

• With a feature on Interscope's deal with Capitol, that makes one more in a long line of coverage given to Capitol. What would the Gershon Theory say?

• This stood out in the comments section of a Bob Lefsetz email about the LA Times' article on Geffen's Ron Fair: "Geffen under Fair just opted not to pick up Sigur Ros's option a band that is not only GREAT at what they do (love em or not) they sold 200,000 in North America and played the friggin Hollywood Bowl. Think there aren't a dozen indies that would sign that band in an instant ? Their new EP is gonna be released by their former Geffen A&R guy Joel Mark on his label - The Worker's Institute. Think Joel can't build a viable indie label on that band's numbers alone?"

Tuesday Morning Business Links, Notes

• Three 6 Mafia and the group's Hypnotize Minds Productions has inked a deal with Warner Bros. Records, which will market and distribute the label's releases. Three 6 Mafia are to produce current Warner Bros artists like Lil' Scrappy and Mike Jones. (Rap News Network)

EMI Christian Music Group has extended its relationship with Inpop Records. By the end of the year the label will release new albums by newsboys and Jimmy Needham (CMSpin)

• A few months after the NY Times' Sunday Magazine's surprising profile of doom metal band SunnO))), the AP says "metal gets a makeover" and finds -- somewhat belatedly -- that many metal bands are pushing social causes and making intelligent music. (AP)

• eMusic subscriptions in Europe rise as the company launches a European service. "It appears that current customers will get to keep their old subscription rates, though they'll get socked with the Value Added Tax now that eMusic has an official European presence." (Digital Audio Insider)

• Bryan Leach, who was previously the VP of A&R at super indie TVT, was hired as the Senior VP of Urban at the RCA Music Group in a deal that brings his own Polo Grounds Music to the label. (Billboard Radio Monitor)

August 11, 2006

OK Go And Grass Roots Marketing

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Last week the band OK Go unleashed another homemade video, this time for "Here We Go Again" (see it in WM, RA or Quicktime). It's already got the band an incredible amount of attention. The video was played on CBS' "The Early Show," entered into rotation at Fuse, debuted at #11 in the VH1 Top 20 Countdown and has received write-ups in The LA Times, Spin, Pitchfork and Entertainment Weekly.

Last year the band attracted attention -- and a lot of YouTube views -- for its similarly made video for "A Million Ways" (WM, RA, Quicktime).

I asked Jorge Just, OK Go's manager, if the new video is a confirmation of the power of grassroots marketing or was made cheaply as a matter of necessity. "We've been really intent on doing as much grassroots Internet stuff as possible," he wrote, "out of both interest and necessity. Necessity because the label wasn't going to release another single or make a video, that much is clear."

But the popularity of the video has made Capitol concentrate on the song, and Just says "they're working incredibly hard on the band's behalf."

"And so we've been doing it for a long time, with varying degrees of success," he continued. "Some of it is grassroots marketing, but a lot of it is simply figuring out how to get people to interact with each other and also with the band. They've got a fun, loyal, interested fan base, and it's kind of a joy to come up with ways to entertain them that go beyond just buying the album. It's entertaining for the band, as well, if sometimes a little mindboggling."

Just pointed to the audio blogs being one by bass player Tim Nordwind as a good example of how the band engages its fans. Before each show, Tim posts an audio message on the band's MySpace page asking people to bring him a certain item to the show -- a request for a hand-drawn picture of their grandparents, for example (listen to MP3 here).

"If you're cynical,' explains Just, "then it's grass roots Internet marketing, but if you're not, it's community building, and bottom line, just another cool thing to do, both for the band and for their fans, and another way for people to stumble across the music."

Friday Morning Business Notes, Links

New West Records has signed legendary singer-songerwriter Steve Earle. Expect an album in early 2007. Earle's most recent studio albums were released by Artemis and E-Squared. New West released his 2004 album Live From Austin, TX. (JamBase)

• The era of perestroika is back: Warner Music International will license songs from its catalog to Russian mobile carrier VimpelCom Group. It's said to be a first between a capitalist pig major label and a mobile carrier from the evil empire. (AP)

• The Microsoft Zune will be available this fall at $299 and in three colors. Yes on Wi-Fi, but it will have to be connected to a PC to actually purchase music. Interesting: It will compete with Microsoft's own PlaysForSure licenses, which it will support. (Twice, via paidContent)

• EMI Music Publishing named Robert Flax to be its worldwide vice chairman. If that sounds like a made-up title it's because it's a new position. (Billboard.biz)

• An interview with Jim Kelly of mail order/online retailer Parasol. (Digital Audio Insider)

• For some, the long tail model is a work in progress: Digital Music Group had losses of $589,000 on revenues of $840,000 in the second quarter. The company had, on average, 69,700 tracks available for sale. (Sacramento Business Journal)

August 10, 2006

Thursday Morning Business Links, Notes

• Chris Morris of The Hollywood Reporter on Tower Records' deep financial problems and its impact on music retail and the experience of its customers. This jumped out: "One confidential source familiar with Tower's balance sheet put the company's debt to Warner Music Group's distributor WEA Corp. at $20 million. The same source said that one sizable independent distributor was owed $2 million." (The Hollywood Reporter)

• CD Baby has ended its business relationship with the Tower Records. (Digital Audio Insider)

• First day sales: Hits predicts Port of Miami by Rick Ross will debut at #1 with sales upward of 200,000. (Hits Rumor Mill)

• This may not amount to a whole lot: EMI Music Publishing has struck a deal with Qtrax that licenses its music catalog for an ad-supported P2P service. (Press Release)

• Top digital album last week? None other than Five for Fighting's Two Lights (Columbia), which sold 15% of its overall total in the digital format. The album debuted at #8 on the album chart. G. Love's Lemonade (Universal) is #39 on the album chart but #3 on the digital album chart.

• A current iTunes promotion, found via Billboard.biz (which requires registation, so no hyperlink will be given) is giving away select digital singles with the purchase of a video. For example, Anti-Flag's "The Press Corpse" single can be purchased for $0.99, or the video for "The Kill (Bury Me)" and the single can be purchased for $1.99. No indication is given as to how long the promotion will last or if more such promotions can be expected.

• Congrats, Kemado Records: Diamond Nights' "The Girl's Attractive" will be used in a worldwide Jaguar advertising campaign. (View the commercial here.) Also, "Destination Diamonds" will be the theme song for the upcoming MTV program "Little Talent Show." The songs are on the album Popsicle.

August 8, 2006

Is EMI Headed For Better Days?

A stock analysis at The Independent puts a buy rating on EMI's stock and predicts better times for the stock that has been battered after the company called off its plans to acquire Warner Music Group.

What does The Independent think will contribute to the rebound? The sale of BMG Music Publishing.

"At EMI's current share price, its Music Publishing division (which accounts for around 75 per cent of the group) is valued at a substantial discount to this valuation. If it were to match the value being placed on Bertelsmann Music Publishing, its shares would have to rise to 310p. Hence, the completion of Bertelsmann's auction should act as a catalyst for a major re-rating of EMI stock."

If/when EU regulators re-approve Sony BMG's 2004 merger, EMI's stock will be ripe for more speculation.

August 7, 2006

Monday Morning Business Notes, Links

• DMX's Year of the Dog...Again, on Columbia, is in a tight race with NOW 22 to top the album chart on Wednesday. Hits predicts both albums will do about 125,000, which would be far lower than the 312,000 of first-week sales achieved by his previous album, Grand Champ, which came out on Def Jam.

• Guitar Center reported its results for the second quarter last week. Net sales were up 13.8% while net income was up 4% over last year. (mi2n.com)

• A rumor that Bizzy Bone "might have signed a 3-album deal with Virgin Records." (All Hip Hop)

• Country labels have done well with comedy albums. "It's also a very efficient market," said one executive. "You don't pay a lot to make a comedy album, but if one hits, the payoff can be big." (The Tennessean)

August 3, 2006

Thursday Morning Business Notes, Links

• Painful: Tower has been put on credit hold by all its major distributors. (Hits Rumor Mill)

• Barney Wragg, formerly SVP at Universal Music Group's eLabs, has been appointed EMI's worldwide head of digital. (Macworld UK)

• The RIAA decided to drop a lawsuit against a file trader (here called a "massive setback") because the defendent's unprotected WiFi network may have been used to download the files in question. (Bit-Tech.net)

• Surprisingly, I didn't read about this at Stereogum: Lindsday Lohan was dropped by her UK label, Island Records. Said an insider to The Sun, "A single was a huge flop over here because Lindsay couldn’t be bothered to get off her bum and promote it." (The Bosh)

• Universal Music Enterprises acquired 11 early Elvis Costello albums and plans to reissue them through box sets, reissues, deluxe editions and the usual ways labels milk their investments. The albums were previously reissued and expanded by Rykodisc, so UME says its reissues will be "definitive reissues." (Billboard.com)

• Here are two albums that have been in dire need of digital remastering: Rhino will reissue the first two Pretenders albums on October 3rd. Finally! (Billboard.com)

• Apple's European iTunes music stores have sold 200 million tracks since launching two years ago. (Playlist)

July 28, 2006

Friday Business Notes, Links

• SOHH reports it appears The Game has left G-Unit/Aftermath and has signed a five-album deal with Geffen that includes a distribution deal for his label, Black Wall Street. (SOHH)

• EMI has agreed to license its North American catalog -- minus The Beatles, one can assume -- to P2P service Mashboxx. (Billboard.biz)

• Rick Rubin rumored to produce the next Velvet Revolver album, Liberated. (MetalUnderground.com)

• RealNetworks announced record revenue of $89.4 million for the second quarter ending June 30th. If income from the Microsoft settlement is adjusted out, earnings drops to $4.8 million. Music revenues rose 21% to $30.1 million. (Press release)

• Download a PDF of the IFPI's 2006 piracy report. (IFPI)

July 27, 2006

EMI, Warner Music Group Call Off The Hounds

Well, it was quite a dance, but Warner Music Group and EMI have announced they are done courting each other. Impala's successful bid to force the EU to take another look at the Sony BMG merger of 2004 has had a chilling effect on the two smaller majors' aspirations to purchase the other.

From Warner Music Group's press release:

"WMG will monitor the situation carefully, but until matters become clearer, for instance as a result of the re-review of Sony BMG by the European Commission or through an appeal to the European Court of Justice, WMG does not believe that it would be prudent to pursue a combination of WMG and EMI. Accordingly, WMG does not intend to make an offer for EMI at this time."

EMI's press release prefaced by outlining the Sony BMG ruling and its two unsuccessful bids:

"Against this background, the Board of EMI has decided not to pursue a combination with Warner Music for the time being. The Board will review this position in the light of future developments.

Both companies stated that they're leaving the door open to revisit the topic of an acquisition, but for 2006 any further talks look to be completely over. In the short term, both companies can get on with their 2006 release schedules and employees can stop worrying about being caught in the downsizing net.

Thursday Morning Business Links, Notes

• It's official: Fat Joe has left Atlantic. His album Me Myself & I will be released independently (through a yet-to-be-named distributor) on October 17th. (Billboard.com)

• The LA Times' Geoff Bucher trumpets last week's album sales slump. It was the worst week since January of 1994, and Januaries tend to be really, really slow. Summers can be slow, too...obviously. (LA Times)

• Reuters picked up Coolfer's post on Snocap's Linx beta. (Reuters)

• Lori Ricscher, who formerly worked in promotion for Arista, Columbia, Island and RCA, has been hired by The Firm for promotion and marketing duties related to its recorded music business and in-house clients. (The Hollywood Reporter)

• Phyllis E. Grann, a senior editor at Doubleday and former CEO and president of Penguin Publishing, was elected to the Warner Music Group board of directors. She will sit on the audit committee. (Press Release)

• EMI chairman and CEO Alain Levy was appointed chairman of the Film Business Academy’s Advisory Board at Cass Business School, London. (4RFV)

July 25, 2006

The Flom Reign

A thread at the Velvet Rope about the Jason Flom era at Virgin Records has a lot of opinions on the track record of the label's new leader.

Some pre-Flom projects are doing quite well, such as 30 Seconds to Mars (weekly sales have more than tripled in the last two and a half months) and KT Tunstall (who will have surpassed 500,000 when sales numbers are released tomorrow).

Since he was hired Virgin has radio hits by Chingy and Letoya, and just released the debut by Jacksonville emo/metal band The Red Jumpsuit Aparatus (which is on track to do around 25,000 first week and looks poised for a breakthrough).

So far so good. Coming up: New albums by Janet Jackson, Beenie Man, Lenny Kravitz, Over It, soft emo band The Summer Obsession, R&B newcomer Johnta Austin and Latin singer/actor Ernesto Bautista, Staci Orrico, CheNelle (whose album features production by Rich Harrison).

July 24, 2006

Monday Morning Business Notes, Links

MAMA Group, a UK company that owns music and media businesses, has made an offer for Sanctuary Music Group. (MarketWatch)

• Blue Note Records is releasing ringtones taken from the of the label's classic songs and artists. (All About Jazz)

• ADA's distribution deal with Ultra Records has finally been announced. Ultra will be leaving Caroline Distribution at the end of August. Ultra owner Patrick Moxey gave some details on the new deal. "Our new arrangement will also include Ultra's partnering with WMG's Rhino on brand new remix packages of WMG catalogue artists and other initiatives including DRTV." (Press Release)

• GoDigital and Share Media Licensing have a partnership that will seed P2P networks with Weed files of music by Master P and Lil' Romeo. Weed, created by SML and based on the Windows Media format, allows a song to be listened to up to three times before requiring that it be purchased for further listens. (Press Release)

• Basketball player Ron Artest talks to SoundSlam.com about his upcoming album, My World, and the first single, "Get Lo," which features Mike Jones and Nature. He will be Fat Joe's opening act on an 11-day European tour. (SoundSlam)

• Download store Musica360.com has launched a PR company called Ms. Media PR, which company COO Jenny Garcia calls "a natural progression of the philosophies that led us to create Musica360 in the first place." (mi2n.com)

• Country indie label Playback Records is being revived. (Press Release)

• A look at Nashville's successful pop scene: Mat Kearny, Josh Hoge and Landon Pigg have or will release major label albums this year. Sixpence None the Richer's Leigh Nash is going solo. (Tennessean.com)

July 21, 2006

Friday Morning Business Notes, Links

• After attacking the Sony BMG merger, indie coalition Impala turns its sights on Bertelsmann's planned sale of its BMG Music Publishing. A trade sale of any major publisher to another would strengthen existing collective dominance in publishing and the functioning of the collective societies, online licensing and synchronisation markets," it protests. (Reuters)

• Universal Music Group's bid for BMG Music Publishing: reportedly close to $2 billion. (Reuters)

• Collector's Choice will release a second series of 15 "Elektra Rarities" CDs on August 29th. (Press Release)

• Tower Records named Joe D'Amico its new CEO. (Billboard.biz)

• EMI and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts are teaming up in an attempt to acquire BMG Music Publishing. EMI is said to provide the management and KKR will provide most of the capital. (The Times Online)

• Think people are tired of DRM? Sony BMG's sale of a Jessica Simpson single in the MP3 format is a popular news item. It's all over the place. Even the USA Today picked up the story, noting the company behind the rootkit mess just put out its first DRM-free digital single. That -- and not mullets and mustaches -- is ironic. (USA Today)

• A profile on Cleveland record store Music Saves. (The Plain Dealer)

July 19, 2006

Wednesday Morning Business Notes, Links

• The quest for cost efficiencies continues: EMI will restructure EMI Jazz and Classics into the Blue Note Label Group. Part of the change is to bring in the Narada Label Group and move it to New York from Milwaukee. Narada's move will result in some layoffs and some executive shuffling. (Billboard.biz)

• Japan's recorded music market, the world's third largest, saw a 3% rise in production. Keep in mind that the figure is for production (not sales) from the Recording Industry Assocation of Japan's member companies. (Billboard.biz)

• The Ameican Association of Independent Music sent the FCC a proposal for a set of guidelines for equal access to the airwaves and transparency between labels and radio programmers. Such lofty goals. (Billboard Radio Monitor)

• A profile on religious hip hop and the entreprenuers and industry behind it. (Newsday)

Ill Nino has been dropped by Roadrunner. Read the band's post about the split at its MySpace page. (Kings of A&R)

July 18, 2006

EMI/Warner Music Group Deal "On Ice," BMG Publishing Sale On Pace

The NY Post's Tim Arango today called an EMI/Warner Music Group deal "on ice" a week after a European court overturned an EU decision to approve the 2004 merger of Sony and BMG.

Although EMI chairman Eric Nicoli said last week the Sony BMG decision had no bearing on its efforts to acquire WMG, Arango was told by sources that "Nicoli and those close to him have realized that a deal anytime soon is farfetched" and that talks will not resume until the Sony BMG issue is resolved by the EU.

Yesterday a Hits piece on the merger matter and outlined the time table for a resolution. The review process would not begin until September and would take at least four months, meaning that Sony BMG would not get regulatory approval or denial until early 2007. That means EMI and WMG would postpone talks in earnest until that time.

Today Bertelsmann said it does not expect the sale of its BMG Music Publishing to be affected by by the decision against Sony BMG. Some have been worried that the court's decision was a harbinger of greater scrutiny to come, and that attempts by WMG, Universal Music Group and EMI to increase their publishing businesses would be hampered.

July 13, 2006

A Case Against A Merger

CNNMoney.com writer Paul R. La Monica makes a case against a merger of EMI and Warner Music Group. His rationale: Greater consolidation would result in a greater likelihood of higher digital prices, and the financial fundamentals just aren't there.

Coolfer's thoughts: First, I do not believe there's great risk in prices rising much higher on the typical digital album. Look at iTunes this very second. As of the time of this writing, 18 of the top 100 titles were above $9.99 and there's hardly a consumer backlash. The trend in recent years has been toward lower prices. If prices stay constant or rise slightly there will probably be additional content bundled with the album.

Second, La Monica is right about the financials. Neither company is burning up with revenue growth, and rising stock prices is due to pre-merger speculation.

EMI's Annual Meeting

EMI chairman Eric Nicoli spoke at the company's annual meeting today. Among the soundbites:

• "We remain confident that the global music industry has excellent long-term prospects driven by the rapidly expanding demand for digital music."
• "EMI Music’s digital revenues continue to show strong growth, significantly more than doubling compared with the same period last year. Mobile products, in particular, are growing very rapidly and now account for over 40% of the division’s total digital revenues."
• Releases for the remainder of the year include albums by The Beatles, Norah Jones, Robbie Williams, Janet Jackson, KT Tunstall, Joss Stone, Chingy, Stacie Orrico, Keith Urban, Trace Adkins, Dierks Bentley, RBD, Relient K and Renaud.
• "We are making good progress on the implementation of the latest phase of the Group’s restructuring plan and are on track to deliver total annualised savings of £30m by the end of the next financial year."

Download a PDF of the presentation and view a webcast at EMI's presentations page.

Thursday Morning Business Links, Notes

• This just in: A European Union Court has annulled the European Commission's decision that allowed for the merger of Sony and BMG. The Commission will re-examine the case. From the court's decision: "The Commission did not demonstrate to the requisite legal standard either the non-existence of a collective dominant position before the concentration or the absence of a risk that such a position would be created as a result of the concentration." (Billboard.biz)

• The commission's decision burst a bubble for investors: EMI's share fell more than 8% after the court's decision due to worries that it could prevent a merger of EMI and Warner Music Group. (Irish Examiner)

• WMG shares fell more than 12% in early trading. (Reuters)

• The prognosticators at Hits are saying Now 22 could do 400,000 in its first week. That will be miles ahead of Pimp C and Thom Yorke, who are looking at the 100,000 range. (Hits Rumor Mill)

• Bad news for Digital Music Group: co-founder Peter Koulouris resigned to "pursue new opportunities." (Sacramento Business Journal)

• The payola settlements from Eilot Spitzer's investigations are making their way out of New York state's music funds. Almost 100 New York City programs have received millions of dollars. Two, Brooklyn Academy of Music and Carnegie Hall, received $750,000 each. (NewYorkBusiness.com)

• A profile on new Kansas City indie labels Wheatfield Group, Drama Club Records, Minnow Records, Curb Appeal Records, OxBlood Records and Range Life Records. Wheatfield is distributed in the U.S. by Fontana. (Kansas City Star)

July 12, 2006

Wednesday Morning Business Notes, Links

• Clive Davis signed fourth-place "American Idol" finisher Chris Doughtry. His album, which is in the writing process ("with A-list collaborators") is due out before the end of the year. (CourtTV.com)

• Rapper Nas has signed with Creative Artists Agency. (Billboard.biz)

• Endemol, the Dutch television production company behind hits like "Big Brother" and "Fear Factor," has signed a deal with BMG Music Publishing to represent the music catalog of its programs. (Reuters)

• Universal Music Publishing has signed Dashboard Confessional frontman Chris Carrabba to an exclusive, worldwide co-publishing deal. The band's latest album, Dusk and Summer, debuted at #2 on the album chart. (Top40-Charts.com)

• Engadget posted a picture of Microsoft's heavily rumored answer to the iPod, code name Project Argo. Gizmodo says the final name of the product will be Zune. Digital Music News reports that some music execs who have seen it aren't all that impressed.

• An EMI spokesperson on Adam Klein: "Adam has done a great job in helping shape the global digital strategy. But given the development of the digital music market, EMI has adjusted its internal structure and approach both centrally and at a national and regional level." (The Telegraph)

The Telegraph calculates offer prices of 370 pence per share for EMI and $33.50 per share for Warner Music Group. (The Telegraph)

July 11, 2006

Tuesday Morning Business Links, Notes

• Capitol Records has entered a partnership with apparel company Sub-Urban Brands to help promote its urban artists. (Rap News Network)

• Lil' Flip is putting on a public relations campaign to say how angry he is that his album was leaked by Sony (he alleges) after his label let him go...unless the timing of this press release and this article in the Daily News is just a coincidence. For a few weeks the word has been that Lil' Flip has hooked up with Warner Music Group, though nothing has been confirmed yet.

• EMI and Snoop Dogg have both filed lawsuits over Snoop's claim that he could exit a contract with the music group. (SOHH)

• Perfect for a global industry: A new system called Voxonic, can replicate a voice in any language. Voxonic has a partner in Andre Harrel, founder of Uptown Records. An unnamed major label, says Harrel, is going to use the technology for ringtones sold in other countries. (Bloomberg.com)

• RIP Syd Barret. (Scotsman.com)

• RIP Milan Williams of the Commodores. (Billboard.com)

EMI Exec Is Forced Out

In today's LA Times Charles Duhigg reports that EMI's Adam Klein, the EVP of strategy and business development, has left the company. Or, in Duhigg's words, he was forced out -- which, since people rarely leave to pursue other opportunities, is usually the case.

This move follows the departure of EMI's head of digital development and distribution, Ted Cohen, who left in late May to begin a consultancy group called TAG Strategic.

What this says about the futurer of EMI's digital development is unclear, but it's certainly not a positive sign. Developing the digital side of the business is probably the highest priority for all four major music groups. EMI's digital sales have certainly increased -- everybody's has -- but Duhigg reminds us that EMI's market share dropped by 0.4 points in the last six months. A change of a key leadership position and a loss of market share adds a bit of uncertainty that EMI could do without.

Reading on Adam Klein:

The USA Today's Kevin Maney talked to Klein in November of 2005 about EMI's digital strategy and the obstacles the industry faces. "We're not asleep at the switch. It's just that of all the industries I've studied, none has had to deal with such a confluence of events."
• November must have been PR month at EMI: EE Times talked to Klein about EMI's many digital plans, ranging from over-the-air downloads to CD copy protection.

July 9, 2006

Weekend Acquisition Update

As industry observers call a union inevitable and employees for both companies wonder about their futures, EMI and Warner Music Group continue to work behind the scenes to raise bids in an effort to acquire the other. The weekend has seen a slew of articles with information related to the bidding.

Today The Times Online reported "big shareholders" have given a green light to EMI's Eric Nicoli to raise its bid for WMG. Said an institutional investor, "We have told Nicoli we will be comfortable up to about $35 a share."

The LA Times' Charles Duhigg had an article yesterday about the two companies' bidding games. Duhigg mentioned a Warner Music advisor who "contacted EMI shareholders on Wednesday to inquire whether a deal could be struck at a purchase price of 340 pence" (roughly $4.8 billion). The bid was not authorized, and an EMI financial advisor said a serious bid "begins with 4 pounds."

Also today, an article at The Telegraph mentioned that financial advisor who sought out feedback for a bid of £3.40. Though not an official bid, the amount is thought to be too low. The Telegraph quotes a banker with ties to EMI as saying "Warner will have to do a lot better" than £3.40 (previous bids were at £3.10 and £3.20).

The aim of the back and forth bidding is raising the prices is the subject of this post at The Telegraph by Fiona Maharg Bravo. What good came from WMG's counterbid? she asks. "One explanation is that it does not necessarily want to buy EMI; it wants the UK group to pay more." WMG's offer puts a price tag on its own business and the amount of cost savings it believes it can achieve. It's a way of saying "beat that and maybe we can talk," she suggests.

Suggested reading: Coolfer's posts on the EMI/WMG merger talk.

July 6, 2006

Update: Warner Music Group To Raise Bid For EMI

The Times Online just posted an article claiming Warner Music Group is "contemplating" a $4.96 billion bid for EMI, which is 340 pence per share. Many feel EMI puts its value in the 400 pence per share range, so WMG is still pretty far off the sweet spot.

At the same time, WMG is said to considering an acquisition by EMI for something in the $37.50 to $38 per share range (putting the big at about $5.6 billion).

WMG plans on financing an acquistion by taking on debt, which is favored by one investor that owns shares of both companies. EMI plans on a right issue to pay for an acquisiton of WMG.

The Lost Furtado/Martin Tapes

Remember the Nelly Furtado/Chris Martin collaboration that EMI put a stop to? For the time being, Stereogum has an MP3 of a demo of the song that would end up on Furtado's new album sans Martin. (Here's a free Napster link to the album version.)

Wrote Scott: "Listening to this version and Nelly's Coldplayless album track back-to-back, I think it's actually in everyone's best interest that it didn't make the cut."

Martin has sounded better. It's hard to blame EMI for protecting the reputation of its cash cow and a man who exerts great influence on the company's stock price and profits. Kinda reminds Coolfer of the infamous soundboard recording recording of Linda McCartney singing "Hey Jude" at a Wings concert. (download MP3).

The Firm Creates New Label, New Model

EMI is partnering with management company The Firm, reported the Financial Times today, to create a new label that will be a revenue-sharing enterprise between artist and label. Artists will not receive advances and will split with The Firm profits from the sale of recorded music as well as touring and merchandise revenues. EMI will receive only a distribution fee.

Two artists were mentioned as having already signed up with the unnamed label, Mandy Moore and Army of Anyone (which features the DeLeo brothers of Stone Temple Pilots and Richard Patrick from the band Filter). In cases such as these, there is far less risk involved. (Don't hold your breath for an unproven artist to get such an artist-friendly deal.) Moore is an established name, and Army of Anyone comes with a built-in fanbase. EMI's distribution fee is about as risk-fee as it gets.

EMI made headlines in September of last year when entered into a partnership with Korn, which itself was modeled after a revenue-sharing deal EMI made with Robbie Williams. The Firm and EMI created a partnership with Ice Cube that enabled the rapper to release his new album, Laugh Now, Cry Later, though his own label. EMI distributed the release while The Firm handled marketing, promotion and publicity.

July 5, 2006

Investor Gives Vote to Warner Music Group

Hugh Hendry of Electica Asset Management, which owns roughly 2% of EMI and is also an investor in Warner Music Group, has publicly supported a WMG takeover of EMI.

In a letter to The Financial Times, Hendry backed WGM's Edgar Bronfman as chairman and chief executive or a merged company. Bronfman's "substantial financial interest" in WMG and a strategy of acquiring through debt rather than equity would be preferable, he wrote.

"As Warner Music shareholders, we would insist it finance the transaction with the maximum amount of debt and without equity issuance. We believe the increase in leverage would make sense for Warner shareholders because of the substantial savings expected by combining both companies.

In addition, we feel the prospects for both recorded music and music publishing are at the early stages of an upward trend that would justify initially increased leverage."

Hendry followed by saying both companies should resisist pressures from regulators to sell off their music publishing units.

It has been estimated that EMI would finance an acquisition of WMG in part by raising $1.27 billion in a rights issue, a secondary market offering that grants to existing shareholders the right to buy the new shares in proportion to their current stake. It was reported a few days ago that WMG has secured financing good for a $4.8 billion purchase underwritten by investment banks Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs.

July 2, 2006

Merger: Warner Music Group Raises Capital, Most Expect A Deal Within Weeks

Last week's back-and-forth bidding was just a warm up for an eventual union of EMI and Warner Music Group. Today's news from The Guardian is that deal is expected in the next few weeks. Now the main question is who will buy and will be be bought. A takeover would bring the number of major music groups to three, the other two being Universal Music Group and Sony BMG.

One of EMI's worries was that WMG could even raise the funds necessary for a takeover bid. An article today shows that WMG has taken steps that should alleviate their doubts. The Business tells of a "highly confident" letter from WMG to Goldman Sachs that gives evidence that Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers will underwrite the debt should WMG submit another offer for EMI.

Some analysts are starting to worry that this is becoming a bidding war that will raise the price of the acquired company to such a level that would erode some of the cost efficiencies that are the very basis for an acquisition. The Guardian quotes one observer as saying a WMG takeover of EMI would make sense at around 400 pence per share -- a 25% increase over WMG's last bid of 320 pence per share.

The Guardian wrote about the need for a takeover, and it thinks EMI is the one to do the taking over.

"The problem is that everyone can also see the difficulty in a merger of equals. Cost savings are best achieved via a single-minded and unsentimental approach, which means a takeover. When boardrooms are carved up to satisfy management egos, it inevitably ends in disaster. Sony and BMG have demonstrated as much in the music business. Thus we have arrived at the slightly absurd situation in which EMI has bid for Warner and Warner has counter-bid for EMI."

June 28, 2006

Warner Music Group: Our Offer Is Better

Warner Music Group released a statement about its dance with EMI. While acknowledging the benefits of a combined company, WMG asserted its belief that it should be in the driver's seat.

"The WMG board agrees with EMI that there are potential merits in combining the businesses of WMG and EMI, but believes that a WMG acquisition of EMI will provide shareholders of both companies with a superior opportunity to realize significant value in their shareholdings."

WMG pointed to several pre-conditions regarding EMI's offer that it found unsavory, including the sale of its Warner/Chappel Music publishing. The better offer, it reasons, is its offer to EMI that is not precluded upon the sale of EMI's music publishing nor an equity financing condition.

Earlier today: WMG counterbids, EMI rejects, EMI counterbids, WMG rejects, WMG counterbids again, EMI rejects.

EMI, Warner Music Group Reject Bids

After weeks of silence the newswire exploded this morning with news of mutual rejections from EMI and Warner Music Group. EMI's first bid of $28.50 a share for WMG was rejected back in early May.

Long expected to offer a counterbid, WMG bid $4.6 billion, or 315 pence per share, for EMI on June 14th. The bid was rejected as "wholly unacceptable."

In turn, WMG rejected EMI's second bid of $4.6 billion, or $31 a share that was tendered on June 23rd, the second bid by the London-based music company.

Last night WMG raised its bid to 320 pence per share, which was once again rejected as "wholly unacceptable."

In its statement, EMI underscored its continued belief that $31 "would be very attractive to both sets of shareholders and would deliver value to EMI's shareholders which is far superior to Warner Music's revised alternative proposal." As for financing the deal, the company "envisages that the proposal would be funded by debt finance and a rights issue, both of which would be fully underwritten, and the disposal of certain music publishing assets."

June 19, 2006

Monday Morning Business Notes, Links

• Mo Ostin, formerly Warner Bros Records chairman, may return to the label as a consultant. (Hollywood Reporter)

• A profile on Mike Dungan, president and CEO of Capitol Nashville. (AP)

• Finally, a hint of interoperability: Sirius and XM are pushing for a device that will work on both satellite radio networks. The two companies are developing a joint venture, Interoperable Technologies. (Digital Music News)

"Kill Your Idols," a documentary about three decades of New York's underground rock scene (Sonic Youth, Yeah Yeah Yeahs) will be distributed by Palm Pictures. (Reuters)

June 16, 2006

EMI Settles With Spitzer Over Payola

EMI became the last of the major music groups to settle its payola investigation with Eliot Spitzer yesterday. The company will pay a $3.75 million fine -- less than its competitors paid -- and has agreed to adopt company-wide reforms. Those reforms are:

• "The immediate cessation of payments and other inducements to radio stations and their employees in return for 'airplay';"
• "Discontinuance of independent promoters as a pass-through for securing airplay;"
• "Hiring of a compliance officer to monitor promotion practices;"
• "Implementation of an internal system to detect any future abuses."

Additional reading:

EMI Exhibits PDF (from the Spitzer website)
EMI Settlement PDF (also from the Spitzer website)

June 15, 2006

Thursday Morning Business Notes, Links

• EMI is setting up "commercial relationships" with YouTube and other video sites that will help police the sites for infringing content. (News.com)

• Virgin Records has an exclusive deal with USA Networks to provide music across the network's marketing platforms. So we'll hear a lot of Red Jump Suit Apparatus during the U.S. Open? (Hollywood Reporter)

• Rapper Chamillionaire has signed a deal with Universal Music Publishing Group. His song "Ridin'" is current #1 on the Billboard Hot 100. (All Hip Hop)

• Hits is pushing Virgin's Corrine Baily Rae, a chart-topper from England who is setting up very nicely here in the States. Coolfer saw her debut U.S. show and thought her label should skip the urban market, but it turns out BET, Vibe and Essence are on board. (I stand corrected. Maybe urban consumers will get into a Brit after all.) Visibility will be high from promotions at AOL, Yahoo!, MSN, Starbucks and iTunes. (Hits)

• The New Music Tipsheet has been redesigned. Check the "blog buzz" section that captures the feeds of numerous music blogs. (New Music Tipsheet)

June 8, 2006

What's Waiting For EMI? Could Be A Big Tax Bill

After an acquisition of Warner Music Group -- if that ever happens -- EMI would face an unpleasant tax bill, reports The Times Online. Because a post-takeover EMI would most likely need to sell the Warner/Chappel music publishing unit to meet the approval of regulators, it "could be forced to consider selling its £1.2 billion music publishing arm for tax reasons."

UK companies are better able to sell assets wtihout experiencing a big tax liability than are American companies, explains that article. In order to sell off Warner/Chappel to appease regulators, EMI would need to sell EMI publishing just to pay the tax man.

This is in the event an acquisition actually takes place, of course. EMI has not yet upped its bid after WMG rejected its initial offer. This time last month the UK press was reporting that EMI would up its bid to $4.4 billion (up from $4.23 billion).

The Qtrax Deal In Perspective, And A Definition of P2P

Wall Street journalist are far, far too impressed by press releases. Another curious article on digital music comes from The Street's Sandy Brown, who wrote about EMI's digital maneuvers and its recent licensing deal with Qtrax. He misses the point of the deal, which is that Qtrax will split ad revenue 50-50 with EMI. This will probably turn out to be a financially immaterial event. There's no evidence that Qtrax will attract a respectable number of users to its service.

The big deal about EMI and Qtrax is almost entirely symbolic. A major made a deal with a former P2P company that is trying to join the crowded market of legitimate online music services. That deal involves revenue sharing from advertising. It'll be pennies in the long run, but it shows majors are willing to dip their toes into unfamiliar waters.

But EMI does have a big life preserver to make it more confortable in this experiment: DRM, which means Qtrax isn't really a P2P service. Because any protected content is filtered out and supplied not by other users but rather by Qtrax, it's more of a B2P (business to peer) service. It's basically Yahoo or Rhapsody without the added content and marketing muscle, and like those services the major label content at Qtrax will come in the protected WMA format. In fact, Qtrax sounds like it's going to be almost exactly like the new, free, ad-supported Napster...which is still bleeding money, in case Brown forgot.

May 31, 2006

Wednesday Morning Business Notes, Links

• Ted Cohen, often hailed as a digital music visionary, is leaving EMI and will start his own consultancy practice. Cohen's title was SVP, Digital Development & Distribution. An official announcement is expected tomorrow. (LA Times)

• Live Nation announced yesterday that it acquired a controlling interest in Concert Promotions International, the touring company behind high-grossing tours by U2, Pink Floyd and the Rolling Stones. (PR Newswire)

• The Game is said to be re-negotiating a deal for his own label, Black Wall Street, though Interscope. (All Hip Hop)

May 27, 2006

Bronfman Turning The Tables on EMI?

Today The Times Online reports that Warner Music Group is looking into the possibility of raising enough funds for a counterbid to EMI's bid for WMG. Many have theorized that WMG could muster a counterbid, but this is the first report that the first investigative steps are under way.

"Edgar Bronfman, the chief executive of Warner Music, has long harboured ambitions to buy EMI, home to Robbie Williams, and is believed to be seeking new investors to support him in what would be a £2.8 billion ($5.2 billion) bid. His manoeuvres have unsettled EMI, which is considering its next move after a $4.5 billion, $28.50-a-share bid for Warner was rejected last month."

One scenario in the Times has WMG finding new investors to buy out its current investor group, forming a unified front that would make it harder for EMI to acquire WMG. That new investment group would surely have to pay a nice premium if it were to acquire EMI, which means its mandate would be to wring as many cost savings as possible out of a merged company. Translation: Layoffs galore, label groups will be merged and artist rosters will be pruned.

Additional reading: Coolfer's posts on EMI/WMG merger talk.

May 23, 2006

It's As If The Acquisition Is A Done Deal

Increasingly, people are talking about EMI's possible acquisition of Warner Music Group is a done deal. Some in the industrty are already talking about "the three majors." As speculation leads to possible scenarios, Hits has an article about the fallout in a WEMI world. What could become of WMG's Edgar Bronfman and others?

"History could play a part in determining how Bronfman winds up. When he acquired PolyGram in 1998, current EMI Music chief/then-PolyGram ruler Alain Levy was offered -- and rejected -- a greatly diminished role in the combined companies, so most expect that Bronfman will similarly have a greatly diminished role in WEMI world, if he has a role at all. Speaking of which, Lyor Cohen’s history with the current EMI management team begs the question: what will become of him when WMG changes hands? It has become apparent to practically everyone in the music business that Cohen isn't equipped to run a music group, though most believe he could return to heading up a hip-hop label. "

Not all are counting the chickens before they've hatched. "EMI profits surge as it pursues Warner Music deal" reads this Reuters headline. "EMI profit, revenue rise, still interested in Warner buyout" says MarketWatch.

EMI Profit Up 20% For the Year

With sales of recorded music up 1.9%, EMI's profit rose 20% for the year ending March 31st to $169 million. Revenue was up 3.9% to $3.9 billion. Market share was up in all territories.

Digital sales grew to $210 million from $88 million during the year, and more than doubled in the fourth quarter. In North America, digital downloads accounted for 70% of digital sales, but it was sales from mobile products that grew at the fastest rate -- increasing by a factor of over nine.

EMI's publishing arm saw revenues increase by 2.6% for the year. Mechanical revenues increase by 3.2% and operating margin rose 25.1%. The company emphasized the potential of the mobile market. "The use of songs in mobile phone products remains the most significant early digital revenue contributor for EMI Music Publishing and continues to enjoy very strong growth."

The list of upcoming releases includes Chingy, Tiziano Ferro, Janet Jackson, Norah Jones, Stacie Orrico, RBD, Renaud, Joss Stone, KT Tunstall, Keith Urban, Hikaru Utada and Robbie Williams.

For the full financials, read EMI's press release. Watch the webcast of the earnings presentation from this page.

May 22, 2006

Reports: EMI Not Ready To Raise Bid Much

EMI may pull out of its bid for Warner Music Group, according to an article at Financial Mail, if WMG holds out for much more. Said one source, "This opportunity will be shut down soon, within weeks not months, if common sense does not prevail. An offer of $28.50 a share is a stupendous price for Warner's investors."

The Independent's article on the subject looks at the fears of layoffs that could happen if the two companies merge. (Well, yes, that's where a good chunk of those hundreds of millions in cost savings would come from.) One estimate puts the layoffs at one fifth of a combined 10,600 workforce.

May 20, 2006

Another Weekend, Another Merger Article

This is getting to be a weekend routine: An article from a UK publication about the possible purchase of Warner Music Group by EMI. This one, "Analysts cutting over EMI hopes for Warner," is at The Business Online and takes a look at how some analysts are down on the prospects of such an event.

A Deutsche Bank analyst wonders if WMG shouldn't be the one doing the acquiring. Lehman Brothers emphasized its underweight recommendation, voiced doubts that they will agree to a deal and further doubts either board would be willing to step down.

Click here for all Coolfer posts on the EMI/WMG merger chatter.

May 14, 2006

EMI Expected To Raise Bid For Warner Music Group

Today The Observer reported that EMI is expected to raise its offer for Warner Music Group to $30 a share.

"Wall Street bankers say Warner could hold out for a higher bid, with some sources saying EMI may have to stump up as much as $33 a share. That could be unacceptable to some of EMI's London-based shareholders."

The bid is expected to come this week. A bid of $28.50 per share was rejected by WMG last week.

May 7, 2006

EMI To Up The Bid

The British media is reporting today that EMI will up its bid for Warner Music Group to $4.4 billion. (The first bid was $4.23 billion.) The bid of $30 a share -- WMG's stock closed at $29.05 on Friday -- is presumed to have been made to satisfy private equity investors by including more cash in the offer price.

That $30 per share offer includes a big premium for WMG's investors.

"While a new offer of $30 a share would represent a slight premium to Warner's current share price, sources close to the deal note that valuing Warner on an equivalent price/ earnings ratio to EMI before the bid means Warner would have been worth $21.50 a share."

An article at the Telegraph quotes a "executive with links to Warner Music Group" as saying a counter-offer, a WMG bid for EMI, is still a possibility. "All options are open," he said.

Merger? Acquisition? And Who Will Do The Acquiring?

The British press is all over the EMI/Warner Music Group dating game. Will they merge? Will one acquire the other? If so, who's picking up the tab, and what price will the other command?

The Independent has an article about Wall Street analysts' urging of WMG to make its own bid for EMI. (Last week EMI laid out a $4.23 billion bid for Warner Music Group, which was rejected.) Asked a Deutsche Bank analyst during the earnings conference call:

"Given Warner and EMI are a similar size, given the fantastic execution we have seen over the past four quarters, and given your experience in putting Universal and Polygram together, wouldn't it make more sense for Warner to be the acquirer in any deal with EMI?"

The Telegraph explains Bronfman's motivation: To restore the family fortune he lost when the stock of Vivendi, which he got for selling Seagram, plunged and lost the family about $3 billion.

"Analysts are divided as to whether Bronfman is just waiting for a higher price or whether he wants to turn the tables on EMI by making a counter-bid of his own. Bronfman has always loved the entertainment industry and would be reluctant to bow out - even with $500m in his pocket. After the Vivendi disaster, Bronf-man will not readily hand control of his investment in Warner Music to anyone else."

The Guardian's article asks who will pay for the wedding. The two companies seemed destined for each other, writes Edward Helmore, and if EMI ups the bid to over $5 billion then Bronfman and his backers would have to accept.

"EMI's strategic game of offering too little so they can come back with a price shareholders cannot refuse, may yet win out - so long as (EMI's Eric) Nicoli and the board can find a place for Edgar Jr. If not, Warner Music Group will just have to buy EMI instead."

Continue reading "Merger? Acquisition? And Who Will Do The Acquiring?" »

May 4, 2006

Notes on EMI's Failed Bid For Warner Music Group

From NY Times: "Warner's biggest investors — Edgar Bronfman Jr., Thomas H. Lee Partners, Providence Equity Partners and Bain Capital, among others — would prefer not just a higher offer, but one that includes more cash, rather than stock, people close to them said."

The Independent on potential cost savings: "Lorna Tilbian, a media sector analyst at Numis Securities, said you only need look to Kensington in London - where both companies have lavish headquarters - to see that there is significant overlap that could be removed."

The Telegraph wonders if WMG will ever gets such an offer again: "The key consideration for Warner shareholders is what chance they have of ever seeing $30 a share again. In the absence of a bid, that level seems unlikely for some time. The alternative would be for Warner to turn the tables and buy EMI, but that would be expensive and complicated and, for private equity, the offer of a profitable cash exit now should prove just too tempting.So the industrial logic to the tie-up is compelling and, having seen rivals BMG and Sony already forge a joint venture, and Universal get bigger and bigger, the timing could not be better."

May 3, 2006

Warner Music Group Rejects $4.23 Billion Bid

Warner Music Group has rejected an EMI bid of $4.23 billion and issued this press release today:

"Warner Music Group Corp. recently received a preliminary non-binding proposal from EMI Group Plc. The Warner Music Group Corp. board of directors has carefully evaluated the proposal in conjunction with the company's outside legal and financial advisors. The board has determined that the proposal is not in the best interests of our shareholders and has unanimously rejected it."

An offer of $4.23 billion works out to $28.50 per share, or about $1.20 over yesterday's closing price.

The NY Times, as Coolfer mentioned last night, is reporting that EMI's offer tops $5 billion. Reuterrs reports CNBC also reported that $5 billion offer figure.

May 2, 2006

New York Times: EMI In Talks To Acquire Warner Music Group

The NY Times will report in Wednesday's edition that EMI is in talks to acquire -- not with with -- Warner Music Group for more than $5 billion, according to people involved with the discussions.

" The chairman of EMI, Eric Nicoli, made the offer early this week to Warner Music's chairman, Edgar Bronfman Jr., these people said. Mr. Nicoli suggested that EMI was willing to pay about $30 a share. ... Representatives for EMI and Warner declined to comment yesterday. People involved in the talks warned that the talks were in an early stage and could collapse."

In late April, Merril Lynch analyst Jessica Reif Cohen put a fair value for WMG at $24. (It closed today at $27.29.)

The two companies would combine to create the world's second-largest music company, just behind Universal Music Group and ahead of Sony BMG.

April 27, 2006

Yet More On The Possible EMI/Warner Music Group Merger

The press is still chattering away about the on-again/off-again merger that can't seem to take shape. This quote is from paidContent and comes from Merril Lynch analyst Jessica Reif Cohen.

"We have done a detailed analysis of the potential merger scenarios and our probability-weighted valuation suggests a fair value for WMG closer to $24 (7 percent downside from current levels). We see fair value of closer to $20 on a stand alone basis. Our analysis suggests that the most likely outcome (we assign an 80% probability) is a merger of equals that allows the companies to evenly split potential cost savings. An acquisition by either company at a significant premium would likely result in significant dilution of equity value for current shareholders."

Warner Music Group's stock closed at $26.40 yesterday.

April 23, 2006

EMI-Warner Music Group Merger Talks. Again.

The Sunday Times started up fresh merger talks today with a report that senior executives at EMI and Warner Music Group are "preparing for preliminary talks" that would merge the world's third- and fourth-largest music groups to create the world's third-largest second-largest (with just barely more market share than Sony BMG) music group.

"Although no approach has yet been made by either company or its advisers, sources close to both said this weekend they were separately working through the potential structure of any transaction. 'This deal’s going to happen. The only question is timing,' said one adviser this weekend."

The report also trots out the popular and somehow always present theory that Apple could possibly bid for EMI. It's been written about before, but Coolfer doesn't remember ever seeing anything substantial about this theory. Remember, just because analysts and experts are throwing blindly at the idea dartboard doesn't mean there's any weight behind it.

Two things that should be in the forefront of the minds of EMI and WMG: The regulatory hurdles they're likely to face (and that have derailed previous merger plans) and the cultural and managerial problems seen in the post-merger world of Sony BMG. The goal is a smooth merger and consolidation (i.e. layoffs) with as few meetings at LAX as possible.

Previous Coolfer posts this year on a possible merger: April 6th, April 3rd, March 17th and March 14th.

April 22, 2006

Judge Finds Record Labels Mislead in Antitrust Probe

In a lawsuit over Bertelsmann's investment and involvement in Napster, two rulings may give the Justice Department a better case in its investigation into digital music pricing. The LA Times' Joseph Menn detailed the judge's findings in an article today. One ruling had to do with which documents would be turned over by two majors music groups:

"But the Justice Department's decision was influenced by two detailed 'white papers' — one submitted by EMI Group and MusicNet, the other by Universal Music Group and Pressplay. In a ruling made public Friday, U.S. District Judge Marilyn Hall Patel found that those papers were 'deliberately misleading.'"

The other dealt with Bertelsmann's $50 million loan to Napster and the revealing of an "unwritten deal allowing $10 million to be used for the legal defense of the old system." Bertelsmann did not disclose to the court that $10 million legal fund.

The Wall Street Journal quotes Bertelsmann's lawyer, Ken Steinthal, as saying, "There's no impact on the merit of the claims."

April 21, 2006

Friday Morning Business Notes

• Anaylists react to EMI's positive earnings announcement yesterday. Citigroup lifted its target price today. (newratings.com) The stock rose 8% yesterday. (The Independent)

• There is one growth market other than digital music, and that's Latin music. The RIAA announced yesterday the majors' shipments of Latin music CDs rose 13% last year. Almost half of those shipments were of regional Mexican and Tejano music. (AP)

• David Lee Roth's radio show will be put out of its misery in the next few weeks. (Billboard.com)

• Spitzer did the dirty work and created the public uproar, now the FCC comes in to the sound of trumpets and tubas. FCC Commissioner Jonathan Adelstein officially announced the formal phase of a payola investigation. Letters of inquiry were sent to Clear Channel, Entercom Communications and Citadel Broadcasting. (Washington Times)

FreshTracksMusic.com is a new online music store that offers all-you-can-eat downloading for the bargain price of $4.95. Digital Music News gave it a little review. What it didn't mention is that the artists available on the site are as close to unknown as you're going to get. I browsed around the site for a few minutes and didn't recognize a single artist's name. Not one. (Digital Music News)

April 20, 2006

EMI Exptects Sales Increase, Cost Savings

Could the days of falling revenues be nearing an end? EMI announced is expects revenue growth of 4% for the year ended March 31st. Digital revenues increased by 150% and accounted for 5.5% of EMI Music's revenues. EMI Music Publishing is expected to post revenue growth of 4.5%.

Also, EMI announced an organizational restructuring of EMI's Japanese division. Resources will be shifted toward A&R, marketing and digital business. EMI expects these changes to save £30m per year.

Read the press release here and Reuters' article here.

April 19, 2006

Wednesday Morning Business Notes, Links

• Well, music execs, you may have it bad these days but not as bad as music critics. Says writer/critic Chuck Klosterman, "I think the music industry is in trouble, but I would say people who write about rock music are in more trouble than the artis. Ten years ago people read rock magazines to be introduced to new bands. Now, you don’t need a rock critic to tell you what’s good." That's funny, because next to no music critics actually use adjectives like good or bad, or verbs like rules or sucks. (Red and Black)

• Big Boi hasn't delivered a whole lot for Virgin yet, so how will his four new ringtones perform? The ringtones were taken from the modest selling Big Boi Presents...Purple Ribbon-Got Purp? Vol.2, a comp released on Big Boi's Purple Ribbon label that goes through Virgin. (SOHH.com)

• Michael Jackson plans to have a new album out in 2007. Which label will release it? A newly formed entity, so says a statement released today, that's a joing venture between Jackson and a member of the Bahrain royal family. Fifty bucks says the record's horrible. (Reuters)

• An LA Times writer talks to network executives, historians and a comedian to find out why Americans are obsessed with "American Idol." (LA Times)

April 14, 2006

Friday Morning Business Notes

• Six labels -- including Nettwerk Records -- have left the Canadian Recording Industry Association because of a disagreement over content rules for radio. (Toronto Star)

• Just as the other majors did last month, EMI signed a deal with Sirius Satellite Radio that give an unspecific compensation to the music group in return for allowing the Sirius S50 to store digital copies of EMI music. The AP's Alex Veiga reports that at least two of the majors' deal gives them a fixed fee per unit sold. (AP)

• Neil Young recorded a new album in just three days, according to Hits' Rumor Mill. There is no release date set for Life In War. (Hits Rumor Mill)

• An interview with an Orange County record store clerk. "People are obsessive. A lot can be elitists. 'Oh, I have the first pressing of that.'" (OC Weekly)

• By the time USA Today catches on, a trend is usually in full swing. "Hyphy pulls a Bay Area breakout," declares the article's title. Steve Jones tracks hyphy from its origins in Oakland to scene leader E-40. (USA Today)

April 13, 2006

Beatles Catalog Closer To Being Online?

One of the staunchest digital holdouts may be moving toward putting its music for sale online. Digital Music News reports that the Beatles' catalog is currently being digitally remastered with an eye toward selling it as digital downloads. The information came out during court procedings of Apple Corp vs. Apple Computer when Apple Corp's Neil Aspinall revealed he would like to get the publicity that would go along with a one-two punch of digital remastered and the availability at digital stores.

Reuters is carrying the story and quotes an Apple Corp spokeswoman as saying, "There's no firm date on any of this at the moment. There are a lot of projects that Apple are working on at the moment."

Related: Logo Lawsuit Could Get Sticky for Apple (MacNewsWorld)

April 10, 2006

Monday Morning Industry Notes, Links

• The Shoreline Ampitheatre will be in court today with the city of Mountain View. The city is accusing Shoreline of rackateering and theft of public funds. (San Jose Mercury News)

• An article on Optimal, a German company that has picked up where the majors have left off: Manufacturing vinyl records. The workshop produces 4.5 million LPs and singles a year. (Financial Times)

• Sony to introduce a Robbie Williams Walkman phone that will have his music, video clips and links to his website. (Reuters UK)

• Sony BMG's Strategic Marketing Group has a promo comp CD in the next Seventeen. The music is from all sorts of labels. Music from "the independent music scene" says the press release, which isn't completely true. Will young girls be into Iron & Wine, Citizen Cope and the Shout Out Louds? We'll see. (Businesswire)

• Gnarls Barkley's "Crazy" is still atop the UK singles chart. This is being seen as a case that shows that digital sales can drive physical sales. (Financial Times)

April 6, 2006

EMI Rumors Continue

Rumors about EMI's future continued today and pushed the music company's stock higher. In addition to the usual whispers about a merger with Warner Music Group, a new scenario involving Apple Computer has investors excited. Reports the Independent:

"Dealers reported quality buyers piling into the stock as traders also speculated that Apple, the computing group that has revolutionised the music industry, may be considering an offer for EMI. Apple's iTunes is by a long way the market leader in music downloading but does not own any content. One trader said: 'Media assets are out of favour with investors and have been for a long while, but there are definite signs the cycle may be turning.'"

That would certainly put an end to the current Apple v. Apple litigation.

April 3, 2006

Monday Morning Industry Notes, Links

• The Daily Mail is the latest to talk about a possible EMI/Warner Music Group merger. It writes about one estimate that a merger could save over $170 million pounds a year. Nobody would hate to save money, that's for sure. The downside? "The only real problem could be deciding which executives fill the key management roles." (Daily Mail)

• Related: EMI's stock was up 1-1/2 on the FTSE this morning on the Mail's merger article.

• TVT has taken a leap of faith: The indie label has licensed its music to Qtrax, an ad-supported P2P service. (Digital Music News)

• Capitol Nashville wants Latin country star. (Reuters)

• The Flaming Lips' Wayne Coyne, who's probably doing ten interviews a day right now, offers something notable in this Billboard. The Lips have one album left on its seven-album deal with Warner Bros, and realizes the band has sold far fewer albums that most long-term Warner Bros bands. He talks of the band's relationship with the label, admits he had fears of being dropped tells of the good communication that exists between band and label. (Billboard)

March 20, 2006

Monday Morning Industry Notes, Links

• The Rochester Democrat and Chronicle (which really needs a Freep-like nickname) profiles hometown boy Teddy Geiger, whose Underage Thinking album will be released by Columbia tomorrow. The stars are aligning for this 17-year-old singer-songwriter. (Rochester Democrat and Chronicle)

• The post-Lack era is moving along fast and furiously: Sony BMG has named Tim Bowen as its chief operating officer. Bowen was previously the head of operations for many of Sony BMG's English-speaking international markets. (AP)

• Details on the upcoming The Capitol Years Vol. 2 Beatles box set. (LA Times)

• The New York Post calls Jordan Schur one of this week's winners (for his joint venture with Interscope Records). Sony CEO Howard Stringer and Village Voice managing editor Doug Simmons are among the week's losers. (NY Post)

• The LA Times is the latest to write about British efforts -- both government and business -- to break artists in America. (LA Times)

• Soul singer King Floyd III is dead at the age of 61. (AP)

March 17, 2006

Friday Miscellany

031706_RoxyMusic.jpg

Roxy Music -- including original member Brian Eno -- is working on a new album with producers Rhett Davies and Chris Thomas. (Gigwise)

• eMusic, already a great store, just got better. Music writer Michaelangelo Matos has left the Seattle Weekly to work for the digital music store. That's the second music writer to leave Seattle in recent weeks -- as Coolfer previously mentioned, Ann Powers was recently hired by the LA Times to replace Robert Hilburn. (Ear Candy)

• Alex Ross, music critic for The New Yorker, points to theorybloggers, or "in-depth analytical commentary out there in the bløgösphêré, as we like to call the classical corner of the web." Check out new trends in songwriting at NewMusicBox or Kyle Gann on Glenn Branca. (The Rest is Noise)

• Jay Smooth on those SNL raps: "Do we need another newspaper article for every skit these guys do?" Coolfer hopes not. (Hip Hop Music)

• The latest online, anonymous and therefore weightless rumor about an EMI/Warner Music Group merger: It will happen this Tuesday the 21st. (The Velvet Rope)

Capitol Tower Update: Thanks, But We're Just Looking

There's a slight clarification on the for-sale status of the Capitol Records building in Hollywood. Hits Rumor Mill posts an EMI internal email that went out to explain the status of the building to employees (and the entire world, since there's no such thing as a purely internal email any more) after word got out that it was up for sale. "Some of these reports were not accurate," it stated. In continued:

"First, we are committed to staying at the Tower and the Gogerty building and conducting business as usual. Second, EMI is not actively shopping for a sale of Capitol Tower. However, we have received some proposals from interested buyers. We have a responsibility to review serious proposals."

There you have it.

March 16, 2006

Capitol Records Building Up For Sale

031606_CapitolBuilding.jpgOne of the architectural landmarks of Los Angeles has been put up for sale. The LA Business Journel reports that EMI will sell the circular building, which was made to look like a stack of vinyl records, and LA officials are "scrambling" to keep Capitol's 160 employees in Hollywood.

Why sell the iconic building? Said a source, "EMI has decided that they are in the record business; not the real estate business...[they] can get a lot of money for the property, so that is what they’re going to do."

And what will become of the building? It may be turned into condos. The LA Times has a story this morning on how the condo idea isn't popular with some.

"A growing number of city leaders, including Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, are suggesting that the famous stacked-record tower is too much an icon to be turned into housing. They say that Los Angeles already has enough famous buildings that used to be something else and that they would prefer that the Capitol tower remain part of the music business."

Here's a good history on the building that includes pictures of the recording studios housed within it. Designed by Welton Becket, the building was built in 1953 and was the world' first circular office building. The Capitol studios and Capitol mastering each of their own website.

(Thanks to Danceblogga for the tip.)

March 14, 2006

Merger Chatter, Again

It's been a while since the last ruminations on a possible merger between Warner Music Group and EMI. Enders Analysis, a London-based firm, brought up the topic last week in a publication on a business deal it calls inevitable. Hits must have got its hands on the publication. A post yesterday in the Rumor Mill because it pulls some tantilizing quotes from the analysis. "Only a straight buy-out by either EMI or WMG will resolve the complex issues of HQ and personnel that a merger raises," argues Enders, which probably saw the clashes and differences at Sony BMG and assumed its peers were watching and learning how not to merge two ego-driven companies with vast cultural and operational differences.

The EU would approve the merger, Enders believes, and estimates annual savings would be in the range of $300 million. The publication concludes that Bronfman and his backers "could make a timely and attractive exit from their investment," which is what many think they've wanted all along.

February 19, 2006

Learning To Love The Download

Time Europe has a piece called "Sing When You're Winning: How EMI and the music industry learned to stop worrying and love the digital download." Great title.

It's a story about EMI's Eric Nicoli, who after losing his job when Seagram bought Polygram in 1998 went to EMI in 2001with the goal of finding a way to make money from digital music. Early hire John Rose was given the task of making it work. And it is working. Digital sales are up to 5% of total revenues, EMI's market share has increased in the last year and some analysts are impressed by EMI's innovative approach to digital music.

And let's not forget the ringtone, the newest revenue stream that is sometimes forgotten because it lives in a world separate from music downloads:

"The unexpected cash cow of the digital era is the ringtone, and its wireless cousins: ringtunes, ringbacks and wallpaper. Last year mobile music sales were more than $400 million globally. EMI's publishing arm — with a catalogue of more than a million songs — is the world's largest, with a market share analysts estimate at around 20%. ... And consumers — especially teens — are embracing the new technology with fervor."

The article also hits on wireless sales, which has everybody hopeful due to the high penetration rate of mobile phones. One thing that's missing from the article, though, is Ted Cohen, the respected head of digital development and distribution. This Newsweek article from September of 2005, which calls Cohen "one of Levy's secret weapons," explains how valuable he is to the company's digital future.