When estimating the regulatory scrutiny of a Live Nation-Ticketmaster merger, it becomes clear the two companies would have had fewer hurdles if they wedded during the Bush administration. That's not to say a merger would be denied, but it will not have the opportunity to breeze through it would have had in 2008.

During the campaign, then-Senator Obama made clear his intention to step up antitrust enforcement. Obama has not yet chosen a nominee to head the Federal Trade Commission, but his pick to lead the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice, which also reviews proposed mergers, is in line with his campaign comments.

In effect, Live Nation and Ticketmaster want to enter into a pact that will eliminate their competition against each other in the ticketing market. Then-Senator Obama commented on this very practice in a September 2007 speech to the American Antitrust Institute (emphasis mine).

When it works well, capitalism is great for consumers. Firms compete to cut prices and improve the customer experience, and consumers have plenty of alternatives, so they are not vulnerable to corporate greed or incompetence. Most of the time, American business enthusiastically participates in this win-win system.

Antitrust helps to keep that system in force. It addresses the temptation that some businesses will sometimes experience, to merge with key rivals instead of outperforming them, to agree not to compete too hard, or to sabotage rivals’ efforts to serve consumers instead of redoubling their own.

A November 2008 article in the New York Law Journal by Neal R. Stoll and Shepard Goldfein outlined the likelihood for stepped-up antitrust enforcement and an overall centrist attitude. Much of Obama's campaign talk on mergers was in regard to health care and pharmaceutical industries, but he did express disappointment in scrutiny over recent media mergers.

Speaking about media mergers at a campaign stop in Oregon, candidate Obama promised "an antitrust division at the Justice Department that actually believes in antitrust law." Further expounding in an interview for Broadcasting and Cable, President-elect Obama reiterated that: "There is a clear need in this country for the reinvigoration of antitrust enforcement. Our competition agencies, the Department of Justice and the FTC, need to step up review of merger activity," and he specifically called for closer scrutiny of media mergers for their implications on competition and consumer choice.

Obama's nomination to head the Department of Justice's Antitrust Division is Christine Varney. Some experts feel Varney, who was a member of the Federal Trade Commission during the Clinton administration and has a background in Internet law, will increase oversight in issues that involve vertical integration that could reduce competition and create barriers to entry. A date for Varney's confirmation hearings has not yet been set.

Economic analysis of merger deals is something else to consider. A Reuters article on Varney said two leading candidates for the DOJ's chief economist are Georgetown University professor Steven Salop and University of California, Berkeley, professor Carl Shapiro.