Album sales in October in the US were 19.4% lower in 2008 than in 2007, according to SoundScan numbers found at Billboard.biz. (For the month of October, I am using the five-week period of September 29 through November 2.) That is a similar deficit to the 20.4% deficit for the month of September. For the period of September through October, sales were down 19.9%. For the year, however, album sales are down only 12.7% -- meaning the decline was far deeper than average over the last two months.

Why the sudden and continued drop? The economic downturn is the first explanation that comes to mind. Another is the relatively strong summer release schedule, which would have made 2008 look better than it normally would have. Releases that normally would have been out after Labor Day may have landed in what is typically a dead zone for priority releases. The numbers attest to this: the 2008 vs 2007 drop for June through August was only 9.7% (the year-to-date drop is 12.7% and the drop in the first half of the year was 11.1%). Any way you slice it, 2008 will probably end up worse than was expected at the end of June barring the sort of incredible holiday season that each week becomes less likely of happening.

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