An article at eMarketer brings up a topic that is worth discussing in the music business: Will free lose out to paid content in an economic downturn? The article debates whether or not creators will increasingly scoff at giving away their content and turn to sites that pay for their content.

Free music has become a standard part of business models and record label marketing. There are expectations that free music will lead to revenue -- advertising for services, purchases for artists and labels, ticket sales. Free samples effectively take away revenue from artists that don't offer free samples, assuming consumer spending is held constant. Even free, ad-supported services are expected to lead to new fans, greater awareness and future revenue.

What will happen in a recession, if consumer spending drops in 2009 (as it probably will)? The previous recession -- roughly 2000 to 2001 -- may not prove much of a guide. The last economic downturn coincided with the rise of Napster, illegal file-sharing and cheap CD burners, and it followed an unusually strong period for manufactured pop artists. If anything can be learned from that period, it is that consumers will flock to low- or no-cost alternatives if no legitimate alternatives are given. And in 2001 and the following few years, the music industry had little to offer but CDs.

Now there are numerous free alternatives, and online bargains abound. The next few years could very well be a long holding period for record labels as they do what they can to engage music fans, collect bits of advertising revenue and wait for wallets to open wider.