If bloggers are good at any one thing, it is giving quick, certain opinions based on incomplete information. If you subscribe to the "wisdom of crowds" school of thought, you could take the average of the opinions and end up with a good prediction. In the case of the SanDisk slotMusic memory card, the new music format unveiled earlier today, the predicted level of success is somewhere between disappointment and failure.

"SanDisk SlotMusic Cards Are Destined to Fail" predicts the title of the post at the widely read GigaOm blog. "I wish wish wish I could see the power point presentation SanDisk used to pitch everyone on the idea," wrote Michael Arrington at TechCrunch (I too have that wish). When told by a SanDisk executive the slotMusic tested well with young guys' "gee whiz" factor, Portfolio's Kevin Maney wrote, "Young guys can think a lot of things are gee-whiz...for about five minutes."

Price was frequently cited as a deal killer. The price range being thrown around is $7 to $10, though there are some concerns it will be more. The unappealing physical nature of the memory card was singled out as another downer. It's more at home on a key chain than on a book shelf.

On the other side of the debate, the LA Times' Jon Healy took a more objective look and pointed out some possible benefits. "One advantage that the cards have is that the content doesn't have to be static," he wrote, "it can be changed dynamically through the Internet or linked to a storehouse of material online." Boing Boing Gadgets found both good (can be used instantly, files have high bit rate) and bad (need to be swapped out). "There's little reason to love it; little reason to hate it."

While crowds, as a whole, provide a good sniff test, they don't provide the final word. Dragging down some of the predictions is the belief that the writer's listening and buying habits represent those of the entire music-buying public. They may end up being right, but for the wrong reasons.

Asessing the level of the slotMusic's success depends on internal expectations. This product is not expected to save the music industry or reverse the losses from CD sales, and nobody should place such grand hopes on it. Whether it fails or succeeds, it is an attempt to sell music in a different way. The value will be in the experience and what is learned. The WSJ's Ethan Smith wrote that labels "view the effort as an experiment," and I think it's great they are experimenting (without assuming all the risk). And if over the coming years the slotMusic format fails, it would hardly be the end of the world.