Let the speculation begin. The Copyright Royalty Board is expected to announce on Thursday its decision on updated mechanical royalties. The new rates will apply to rates paid to publishers for CD sales, digital downloads and ringtones.

iTunes, as recounted in this article by Fortune's Devin Leonard, has threatened to shut down iTunes rather than shoulder the higher royalty rate. Nobody really believe that, nor does anybody believe iTunes is merely a breakeven venture, but Apple has made its position very clear.

In reality, a higher royalty rate would have many implications aside from pressure for higher music prices. Short of higher prices, which would be difficult to do in today's retail climate, new mechanicals would result in labels searching for ways to soften the pain of higher payouts to publishers.

What ever happens, there is little chance of the sort of major disruptions that are being and will be predicted this week. Consumers will not notice many changes from their end. A slight increase in mechanicals is like an increase in the minimum wage. Small businesses and corporate America warn of impending doom, but the economy absorbs the increase and we all live to see another day.

Extra credit: This October 2007 Billboard interview with Chief Copyright Royalty Judge James Sledge has a good amount of background on the CRB.