Pali Research, says this lengthy and worth-reading blog post at the Wall Street Journal's Deal Journal, suggested that EMI purchase Warner Chappel Music Publishing from Warner Music Group. The odds of that happening are slim to none, as Deal Journal explained.

The sale would allow for WMG to pay down its debt, but that's important only if servicing its debt is a problem. Right now, and especially after WMG suspended its dividend, this isn't a burning issue. The Goldman Sachs analyst who downgraded WMG the other day admitted the company appears able to meet its debt obligations.

For EMI to try to integrate Warner Chappel before the smoke clears on Terra Firma's reorganization would bring unnecessary stress to an already stressful turnaround attempt. Why bother?

Financing such a deal would be difficult in today's climate. Pali estimates Warner Chappel could sell for $1.95 billion. Publishing sits in a more favorable light than does recorded music, but if I was a bank I'd sit this one out and let Terra Firma get EMI on the right path.

Would regulators deny such a purchase? EMI has the largest music publishing market share, but publishing is more fragmented than recorded music (read about 2007 market shares here). If regulators could permit Sony BMG to exist, they could live with an EMI purchase of Warner Chappel.

But I don't see it happening. WMG doesn't need to sell right now, and EMI should focus on its own transformation.

[music jobs] New York University is seeking a Department Chair for The Clive Davis Department of Recorded Music.