June 20, 2008

After going over the 41-page "Music Experience and Behaviour in Young People" study by the University of Hertfordshire and British Music Rights, I put together some thoughts.

Almost three in four said they favor a file-sharing service where a user could download any song with no usage or ownership restrictions (page 31). Interest was highest among those that use P2P the most (page 32). Not a surprise. People who don't use P2P aren't going to have as much interest in an unfamiliar technology. While its promising that 75% of respondents are potential customers for P2P services, the realities of today's licensing agreements are nowhere near the desires of consumers. The sort of P2P services that would elicit a great deal of public support would currently carry DRM (see Qtrax) or would carry so high a price tag as to eliminate labels' fears of unlimited downloading of MP3s.

An important bar graph comes next (page 33): 65% are not interested in a file-streaming service that does not let you own a permanent copy. Interpretation: We like to download files, we like ownership.

A question with serious economic ramifications comes next (page 35). About 48% of respondents in favor of a streaming service would stop buying CDs. Interesting that only 37% of those in favor of a download service would stop buying CDs. The implication is that using a streaming service will replace purchasing music (downloads, too, I assume). Those puny on-demand on non-interactive royalty rates need to take into account eventual lost revenue.

Forty percent of music spending goes toward recorded music while 60% goes for live music (page 27). Only 37% of the live music money goes toward tickets (page 29). The remainder goes toward transportation, beverages and merchandise.

The study needs more info on income by age group. This is an important factor because the thrust of the study is teens love music and will pay for it. But how will they pay for it if they don't have any money? On page 22 you can see that 61% of 14-17 years olds' MP3 tracks were not paid for. That seems like a high ratio but it really carries no meaning. There's no context. We need to know how much money the teens have to spend. We need to know where they got the money to buy the music, or how they got the music (friends, gifts, etc). Remember, an illegal download is not always a lost sale -- especially if there is no money in the kid's pocket.

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Posted by Glenn at 5:53 PM | | | Research