A new In-Stat report says digital will represent 40% of worldwide music sales by 2012.

How does that jibe with previous research?

A November 2006 iSuppli report put the 2010 global digital market at 40% of total global digital revenues of $14.9 billion. At the time I said that percentage was too high an estimate. That estimate of 40% share would be reached via an astronomical (and, from the looks of things today, unachievable) compounded annual growth rate of 40.7% for digital revenues.

The IFPI's Digital Music Report 2008 (download PDF) estimated 2007 global digital revenues at $2.9 billion and a share of 15%. That puts the global recorded music market at about $19.3 billion.

As for the U.S. and Europe...

In February, Forrester released a report that said U.S. digital revenue will increase at a CAGR of 23% and surpass CD sales by 2011. That report put 2012 U.S. digital revenue at $4.8 billion and CD revenue at $3.8 billion. Those numbers means Forrester puts 2011 U.S. digital revenue at at $3.1 billion.

In January 2007, JupiterResearch forecast a CAGR of 16% and 2011 U.S. digital revenues of $2.5 billion, or 22% of the total market. Those estimates are lower than those of Forrester, but Jupiter does not count ringtone sales as digital and that probably accounts for the difference. Jupiter's estimate for 2011 ringtone (all variations) revenue was 12% of the market.

As for Europe, a JupiterResearch report puts the European recorded music recovery at 2010 and total revenue of €2 billion in 2012.