One has to read the words of a media analyst to find realistic expectations. Journalists and bloggers speak in doom-and-gloom absolutes (e.g., "the CD is dead," "record labels are dead"). Today EMI announced it would chop about one-third of its workforce. Yesterday, Jupiter's Mark Mulligan had an industry health check on the eve of EMI's restructuring announcement.

"The music industry is becoming a smaller beast than the halcyon days of the 90’s and business models and strategies will have to focus on preparing labels for being competitive in this new environment. This process will impact the industry across all aspects of the business and digital will be a key asset for implementing the change. For example not all artists will warrant the risk of full album deals, so many will increasingly be offered digital only agreements that will focus on more immediate, bite size release deliverables with the option to expand dependent on performance. But it is also likely that tiers of artists will emerge, with some only ever suited to digital.

EMI is not about to die. Nor is the music industry. But both are mid way through a difficult transition process. European music revenues will pick up again (modestly) in 2010 due to digital spending, but even by 2012 total revenues will only be where they are now i.e. at their all time low. Terra Firma will be hoping this will make EMI better placed to compete in that smaller market."

I cannot say that I agree that "many" will get digital-only deals...not until digital marketing costs far less and become far more effective. (Marketing is expensive whether it's a big release or a "bit size" release.) It's going to take a lot more experimenting. And it appears that Mulligan does not expect major music groups to make fruitful forays into management, promotion or merchandise. They'll give it a shot, but the jury is way out.