This eMarketer article about per-person spending on music is getting a lot of press. Interesting numbers.

First, eMarketer looked at Census Bureau data on the U.S. population. Next, it took some figures from Bridge Ratings that show what percent of the U.S. population is a music purchaser. Multiply the two and and you get the number of music consumers in the country. That result is divided into figures from Billboard on total music spending. The final number is the per-capita spending on music.

The data show a mix of good and bad news. More people are buying music (up to 32% in 2006 from 20% in 1985) but they're spending less ($268 per head in 1995 opposed to $120 per head in 2006).

The cause for the decline is too complicated to blame on any one factor (as much as the RIAA would like to pin it on piracy alone) but there is one that obviously stands out: single track downloads. iTunes has been both a savior and a nuisance to record labels. Given the option of an album or a choice of tracks, consumers tend to opt for less than a full album. That option is liberating for shoppers but lamentable for labels.

There is hope in the good news. More people are buying music. That's a start. The next step is to sell them more music. What's needed are download stores that are more than a compliment to a piece of hardware. My guess is that Amazon.com will be better than iTunes at engaging the customer and getting more incremental sales per person. Other download stores will follow. (Somebody, please, put a title on sale once and a while. Not a permanent drop in wholesale cost, but an honest-to-good sale.) They will adapt and find ways to sell more units. In the next few years, per-capita spending will increase.

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