Somewhat music-related here...In a list of working papers at Harvard Business School's Working Knowledge, there is an abstract to a paper titled "A Taste for Obscurity: An Individual-Level Examination of 'Long Tail' Consumption." The author, Anita Elberse, a Assistant Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School, is looking at DVD rental data to see if interest in popular and niche titles are evenly distributed. Her findings show that renters of niche titles tend to rent hit titles in even greater numbers -- and appreciate the hits more than the niche titles.

"I find that a large share of consumers, particularly those who consume with a higher frequency and concentrate on a narrow selection of genres, regularly opt for obscure products likely not available in bricks-and-mortar stores. Casting doubt on the 'democratizing' nature of online channels, however, I also show that even for consumers who regularly choose the most obscure products, hit products typically constitute the lion's share of their choices. Moreover, reminiscent of the 'double jeopardy' concept, consumers of obscure products generally appreciate those products less than the more popular products."

That last line made me think of people who put a few super-underground titles in their year-ending Top 10 lists so their friends won't think they're just following the bandwagon. If the professor's findings hold true for music, what does that say about Internet radio and the long tail of digital distribution? It would be hard to imagine the "hits" (in parenthesis because the definition is a moving target) will never be overcome by a large collection of obscure titles.

There is no paper available for download at this time, but I'll keep an eye out for it when it surfaces.