How much does DRM hurt digital music sales? That's a big question. The fact that Universal is so methodically testing its DRM-free experiment tells me UMG would like a good answer to the question before picking an overall strategy. Jupiter research shows a fair portion of online adults would purchase more digital music is there were fewer restrictions. From David Card's blog:

"I would buy more digital songs if I could copy or burn them without restrictions -- 24% of US online adults

I would buy more digital songs if I could play them on any device or computer no matter where I bought them -- 23%

But yes, almost twice as many of the best prospects -- digital music aficionados and freeloaders who, together, make up about 35% of online adults -- agree with the statements."

Card believes "killing DRM won't exactly kick digital music into fifth gear." More information is needed -- which UMG will get from its experiement -- but I think dropping DRM might be the best option for fifth gear. Of all the current options out there for reversing the slowing in digital sales -- variable pricing, dynamic pricing, ad-supported P2P, etc -- getting rid of DRM has the most potential.

Actually, I don't think digital sales are even in fourth gear yet. Digital is still in its infancy. DRM has not hurt to this point. Apple has been able to fuel sales growth even though it uses DRM in its closed iPod/iTunes ecosystem. Beyond iTunes, DRM will stunt digital music's growth. Without DRM, creative retailers can offer new ways to buy music. Without DRM, there are far fewer cats to herd.

Two retailers are on the record as saying UMG's DRM drop will improve sales. Then again, what else are they going to say to a reporter? RealNetworks and Best Buy believe they will both sell more digital downloads during UMG's upcoming experiment. Said the director for music at Best Buy, "The size of the pie for legal downloading and subscription services is increasing. More people are saying, 'I'll pay for this ability to play it on whatever I want or any time I want.'" About price he said, "We feel consumers will want to pay the same price they're paying."