Album sales are down about 5% so far this year, and the summer has been typically slow. The release schedule will definitely improve in the coming months (as it always does). July 25th has some big releases, and August 22nd and September 12th should be as good as any release dates before them.

Based on the list below, Coolfer has ranked the strength of schedule for each major. (The list is not complete and has the most current information I could get.) Some albums are by established artists that are almost sure to be hits. Many are by legacy artists who will top out at or around gold. And there are a lot of wild cards, those developing acts that may or may not turn the corner and reach gold or platinum. It's hard to say who will make it...so few do.

Strength of schedules, going from strongest to weakest, not surprisingly follow market share: Universal Music Group, Sony BMG, EMI and Warner Music Group.

Given its smaller market share, Sony BMG's hit-rich schedule could be good enough to add to its 24% album market share at the expense of UMG's 31% share. EMI's schedule looks as strong as its 9% album share, but a lot is riding on Janet Jackson, whether Coldplay remains on this year's release schedule and its ability to develop to artists. WMG has some very promising titles that could help it surpass its 16% share but lacks the sure-thing blockbusters that fill UMG and Sony BMG's schedule. The company is good, though, at scoring left-field hits.

Universal Music Group's release schedule, based on this list, is the strongest. It has releases by The Killers, Audioslave, Ludacris, Jurassic 5, The The Who, Mars Volta, Thicke, Rick Ross, Beyonce, Fergie (of Black Eyed Peas), George Strait, Breaking Benjamin, Elton John, Obie Trice, Diana Krall, Indigo Girls, Jonny Lang, New Found Glory, Redman, Natalie Cole, Papa Roach, Akon, Scissor Sisters, N.O.R.E., Lionel Richie, Kelis, Hatebreed, Tamar Davis, Jesse McCartney, LL Cool J and The Roots.

Wild cards: The Pink Spiders, The Grates, Big Tuck, TV on the Radio, Sparta, The Rapture, Platinum Weird, Lady Sovereign.

Sony BMG also looks very good: OutKast, DMX, Justin Timberlake, Beyonce, Rod Stewart, Maroon 5, Fantasia, Christina Aguilera, John Mayer, Taylor Hicks, Clay Aiken, Il Divo, Kenny Chesney, Monica, Jessica Simpson, Five For Fighting, Ruben Studdard, Evancescence, Frankie J, Audioslave, Omarion, Ray LaMontagne, Barry Manilow, Carly Simon, Lyfe Jennings, Dave Matthews Band, Ciara, Sarah McLachlan, Crossfade, Chris Botti, Pete Yorn, Coheed and Cambria, The Strokes, Gin Blossoms, Cassidy, and Katherine McPhee.

Wildcards: Lamb of God, Citizen Cope, Mario Vasquez, Ben Kweller.

Warner Music Group has some potential hits, some fading artists and some legacy artists who are former chart toppers: Cassie, Paris Hilton, The Doors, Slayer, Mana, Yusaf Islam, Diddy, Jet, Young Dro, Trick Daddy, Paul Wall, The Deftones, Dream Theater, Scarface & Tupac, Wynonna, Shawn Colvin and 8Ball & MJG.

Wildcards: Nina Gordon, Mastodon, Kill Hannah, Danity Kane, Sugarcult, Bun B, Cham, Kasey Chambers.

EMI's schedule has some hits and a few titles with an outside shot at breaking out: Janet Jackson, Coldplay, Beenie Man, Meatloaf, Chingy, Daz Dillinger, R.E.M. (IRS years compilation), Bob Seger, Trace Adkins, Bonnie Raitt, Daz Dillinger, Enigma, Celtic Women and Lenny Kravitz.

Wildcards: The Panic Channel (members of Jane's Addiction), The Kooks, Sean Lennon, The Decemberists, The Summer Obession, Stacie Orrico, Over It.

Indie labels have strong releases and should have a great summer and fall, most noteably Ani DiFranco, Michael Franti, Pitbull, Basement Jaxx, Bright Eyes and Yo La Tengo. Lil' Jon should have an album out in September but no street date has been announced.

Here's the entire list of upcoming releases, sorted by street date.

Continue reading "Ranking The Upcoming Releases" »