May 7, 2006

The British press is all over the EMI/Warner Music Group dating game. Will they merge? Will one acquire the other? If so, who's picking up the tab, and what price will the other command?

The Independent has an article about Wall Street analysts' urging of WMG to make its own bid for EMI. (Last week EMI laid out a $4.23 billion bid for Warner Music Group, which was rejected.) Asked a Deutsche Bank analyst during the earnings conference call:

"Given Warner and EMI are a similar size, given the fantastic execution we have seen over the past four quarters, and given your experience in putting Universal and Polygram together, wouldn't it make more sense for Warner to be the acquirer in any deal with EMI?"

The Telegraph explains Bronfman's motivation: To restore the family fortune he lost when the stock of Vivendi, which he got for selling Seagram, plunged and lost the family about $3 billion.

"Analysts are divided as to whether Bronfman is just waiting for a higher price or whether he wants to turn the tables on EMI by making a counter-bid of his own. Bronfman has always loved the entertainment industry and would be reluctant to bow out - even with $500m in his pocket. After the Vivendi disaster, Bronf-man will not readily hand control of his investment in Warner Music to anyone else."

The Guardian's article asks who will pay for the wedding. The two companies seemed destined for each other, writes Edward Helmore, and if EMI ups the bid to over $5 billion then Bronfman and his backers would have to accept.

"EMI's strategic game of offering too little so they can come back with a price shareholders cannot refuse, may yet win out - so long as (EMI's Eric) Nicoli and the board can find a place for Edgar Jr. If not, Warner Music Group will just have to buy EMI instead."

Continue reading "Merger? Acquisition? And Who Will Do The Acquiring?" »

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Posted by Glenn at 10:24 AM | | | EMI | EMI WMG Merger Talk | Warner Music Group